A New Year’s Prediction Challenge For Climate Alarmists

Happy New Year’s! Welcome to 2011, and a new decade. And one year closer to End Of Life As We Know it. 2150 and 2200 are fast approaching, the primary dates that the climate alarmists always want to use to denote when Earth is going to burn, baby, burn in fire, dan dan daaaan, fire, dan dan daaaaan.

New Year’s is usually a time when we make resolutions which we abandon when we realize that chocolate, bacon, and beer are great (and bacon cooked in beer and covered with chocolate!) In the blogosphere, we often make predictions for the New Year. Instead, how about a challenge?

For a long time, the alarmists have been making predictions as to what the climate will do. They say in 10 years, 50, 100. Instead, why not, say, make predictions for……2011! What I want for them to do, from the biggest of big climahypocrites, such as Al Gore, James Hansen, Barack Obama, and Leonardo DiCaprio, to the smallest climate dupes, is tell us exactly what the climate will do this year. For some of these questions, I’m using the USA, but, alarmists from around the world can use their own country/region, if they like:

  • What will the average temperature of the Earth be for 2011? Most scientists place it at 59 degrees F (15 C). How far above, or below, will it be?
  • What will the average temperature be for the USA?  The rough average for the USA is 53 F.
  • How many tropical systems will there be in the Atlantic? How many will hit the USA?
  • What will the four seasons do in 2011? Warmer, colder, hotter, wetter? Tell us
  • What will each month look like in the USA? How about in your home state?
  • Which months will be above average, and which ones below, temperature wise?
  • What states will have big floods, and during what months?
  • What will tornado season look like?
  • How many destructive thunderstorms will there be, and in which states?
  • How many “extreme” weather events will there be?
  • How much ice will the poles gain/lose?
  • Will the Arctic be ice free this summer?
  • What will the average precipitation be for your home city? Average temperature? Average low’s and highs?
  • How many earthquakes will there be (since, apparently, climate change/globull warming creates earthquakes)?
  • Pick an island, and tell us how much the sea will rise around it.

There are many, many, many more questions that can be asked, but, I know what the alarmists are thinking: “Teach, that is weather, not climate! I refuse to participate!” Ah, but, what, exactly, is climate? Let’s pull a couple good definitions

  • Climate encompasses the statistics of temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, rainfall, atmospheric particle count and numerous other meteorological elements in a given region over long periods of time
  • Climate is the average weather conditions at a particular place over a long period of time. Climate is the long-term predictable state of the atmosphere. It is affected by physical features such as mountains, rivers, positioning of the globe, plateaus, deserts, depressions and much more.
  • The general or typical atmospheric conditions for a place and/or period of time. Conditions include rainfall, temperature, thunderstorms, lightning, freezes, etc.

Notice, “long term predictable.” Weather and other natural forces create climate. And right now the alarmists are saying “but, Teach, one year is not considered to be a “long period of time!”” Well, you have plenty of data available for the long term, and, with all your vast knowledge of what the climate is doing, due to man’s release of greenhouse gases, surely you alarmists can make predictions for 2011 based on that long term data, and be mostly correct, right? Surely, you aren’t afraid to make predictions for this year, and tell us what the climate during 2011 will do, right? But, you have to make your predictions, and can’t go back and change them up as the year goes on. And at the end of the year, we will see how well you have done.

Any alarmist up for the challenge? And no cheating be reading the Farmer’s Almanac, which tends to be right way more than the Met, NASA, UN IPCC, and other alarmist groups are. Forget about your PR blitzes, “spreading awareness” campaigns, your advocacy, your stunts, and tell us what will happen. If you’re correct, for a change, maybe people will start to believe you again.

Oh, and a second challenge: live your life in 2011 in the manner you tell everyone else to live.

Crossed at Right Wing News and Stop The ACLU

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6 Responses to “A New Year’s Prediction Challenge For Climate Alarmists”

  1. John Ryan says:

    Teach I predict that 2011 will rank as one of the hottest 10 on record for our planet Earth. I will also predict that the arctic ice extent will rank as one of the ten smallest. Those are my predictions Teach please tell us what YOURS are for the year. Do you think it is going to be colder than the historical average ? Do you think that the arctic ice extent will return to its 30 year norm? Please tell us. Surely YOU are not afraid to make predictions for next year.

    • We obviously need to work on your reading comprehension, John. I want specifics, not vague talking point generalities. Let me know when you actually have some.

  2. captainfish says:

    Teach, my prediction is that the sun will go Nova and cause massive coronal ejections that will wipe out all living matter on earth!! Those few who managed to survive underground, will lay prostrate begging forgiveness from the gods of global warming for ever doubting that their previous dangerous way of living on the surface could have led to mass extinctions, increase in surface temperatures, oceans boiling away, and the loss of all natural resources. Whew knew they could have known….

    Oh.. you want specifics?? Ummm.. Spring will be warmer than the previous winter. The summer will be the hottest on the annual record of data. And then the temps will begin to dramatically begin to drop off towards the winter-time.

    Hmmmm.. more specific? Heck Teach. That’s a tough one. We can’t even get actual temperature and rain predictions right a week at a time!!! How dare you expect scientists to make 1,5,10,100 year predictions!! oh.. yeah. nvmd.

  3. Which is exactly why John and the rest of the alarmists will avoid this challenge like the plague. I will make sure to throw it out every once in a while for the next couple months.

  4. Level_Head says:

    I like it. And years ago, I was moved by a research paper to propose a different but related test. The paper analyzed the recent history of New Mexico. In the northern part, they saw increased precipitation, in which they could detect the footprint of human-caused global warming. In the southern part of the state, they saw decreased precipitation, in which they could detect the footprint of human-caused global warming.

    My proposal: Provide streams of data records to modelers, and have their systems identify which of these streams contain the footprint of global warming. But have some of the streams backward, and some from different periods of history. Let’s see if the models can actually correctly reject false interpretations and catch real ones.

    For if they point to a record running from 2000 back to 1900 and say “this is clearly global warming,” it would make you wonder how reliable that detection is. As if you weren’t wondering already…

    In the US, California is clearly global warming. So is the North East — but only if you run it backwards. And with actual, unadulterated temperature records, you might not see anything at all that you could point to and say “global warming” — unless you ran from 1975 back to the warmth of the mid-1800s.

    ===|==============/ Level Head

  5. Level_Head says:

    Why must we forgo civilization and spend trillions to mitigate this crisis? Because of the precautionary principle — that says that even if there’s a small chance of a problem, we MUST plan for it.

    But where was this much-vaunted principle when the MET was telling the UK not to worry, it was going to be a mild winter?

    They do not believe their own stories — but global warming seems not about weather OR climate — but about money, power, and ideology.

    ===|==============/ Level Head

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