Report States Global Sea Rise Is Much Less Than Estimated

By William Teach November 7, 2013 – 8:41 am

The average sea rise over the last 7,000-8,000 years is 6-8 inches per century. As I’ve explained before, we use the 7,000-8,000 year figure due to that being the time when the massive sea rise post-glacial period leveled out (relatively).

When we discuss averages, we have to consider that when the Earth is in a cool period sea rise will be low, if not negative, and must be higher during a warm period. Since the cool periods tend to last longer than the warm periods, then sea rise should be considerably more than the average. How’s that working out?

(Die Welt) A scientific study by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem has closely examined data from the measurement stations located mainly at the coasts and reached the result that sea level rise calculations were exaggerated upwards. In the study Michael Beenstock and colleagues reached the result that sea level rise on a global average is only 1 millimeter and that by the end of the century it will rise only 10 centimeters; only 1/3 of the stations showed a detectable rise, 61% showed no movement and 4% showed a drop.”

10 centimeters equals 3.937 inches. Let’s call it 4. So sea rise isn’t even at average, but below. The average sea rise during the 20th Century was well within the historical averages discussed at the beginning, when it should have been much higher. The 2007 UN IPCC estimate was for 18 to 59 cm (7.1 to 23 in). Which would have still put sea rise at a range going from purely average to a bit above what one would expect during a big warm period.

The article and translation comes via No Tricks Zone, which notes

Overall 1 mm/year is about 67% less than what Jason TOPEX satellite altimetry is showing (3 mm). If anything, Beenstock’s result indicate a sea level rise slowdown.

Beenstock is not the only scientist who has found sea level rise is much slower than believed. Kulke writes that other peer-reviewed studies reach similar conclusions. For example Nicola Scafetta of Duke University (see full paper here) shows that sea level is subject to 60-year cycles and concludes that the human impact on sea level is too small and is statistically insignificant.

Lest one think Kulke is a raging skeptic, he takes the view that there is a human fingerprint on the climate via CO2, but that it has been highly exaggerated.

Back in July, 2013, Anthony Watts blogged a study using GRACE data to highlight that global sea rise was around 6.7 inches per year. So, purely average.

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Surprise: Sebelius Says Employer Based Plans Will Face Same Hurdles As Individual Plans

By William Teach November 7, 2013 – 8:12 am

I’ve mentioned several times that those who receive health insurance through their employer will soon have to deal with the same problems as individuals due to the grandfathering rules established by Health and Human Services. The administration’s own mid-range estimate was that 51% would lose their employer based plans. That would be 78 million people. Now we obtain more confirmation regarding “if you like your plan, you can keep your plan. Period”

(Townhall) Testifying on Capitol Hill Wednesday about the failure of the Obamacare rollout, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius was grilled about President Obama’s false promise that millions of Americans could keep their insurance plans. Sebelius and Obama repeatedly stated plans held prior to Obamacare passing and going into effect would be grandfathered in. What they didn’t mention is the “grandfathering” process comes with caveats, meaning if plans didn’t meet new Obamacare standards, they would be cancelled. Because of those caveats, millions of Americans in the individual health insurance market have lost their health insurance plans despite being promised they could keep them. Today, Sebelius admitted employer based insurance plans will also be cancelled as a result of grandfathering caveats and government requirements making plans illegal under Obamacare.

“Employer based grandfathered plans will have the same caveats,” Sebelius said under questioning from Republican Senator John Thune.

In other words, kiss your plan goodbye and say hello to one which is more expensive, has higher deductibles, and fewer doctors and medical centers. And, companies may just decide that the extra costs aren’t worth it, that it’s cheaper to pay the fine/tax, and point everyone towards the Exchanges. Which work so well that even Democrats are screaming in frustration (via Lonely Conservative)

Since 1995, Hammack and Brothers have received their health coverage from Kaiser Permanente, where Brothers worked until 2009 as a dietitian and diabetes educator. “We’ve both been in very good health all of our lives – exercise, don’t smoke, drink lightly, healthy weight, no health issues, and so on,” Hammack told me.

The couple — Lee, 60, and JoEllen, 59 — have been paying $550 a month for their health coverage — a plan that offers solid coverage, not one of the skimpy plans Obama has criticized. But recently, Kaiser informed them the plan would be canceled at the end of the year because it did not meet the requirements of the Affordable Care Act. The couple would need to find another one. The cost would be around double what they pay now, but the benefits would be worse.

“From all of the sob stories I’ve heard and read, ours is the most extreme,” Lee told me in an email last week.

As I wrote in the comments at The Lonely Conservative “I have absolutely zero sympathy for these Democrats who are finding out exactly what they voted for and getting nailed. Dems always think their policies should negatively effect Someone Else, whether it be taxation, “climate change” policies, or Obamacare. Then, when they find out that they themselves are getting screwed, they whine to the world.” I’ll reserve my sympathy for those who have been against Obamacare from the start.

I know my plan will change heavily. We will have a choice of 3 plans (sounds much like the Exchange). What we do not know are the deductibles, premiums, and coverages. And our plan wasn’t all that cheap for a corporate plan in the first place. Insurance in North Carolina under the Exchange is already costly.

Crossed at Right Wing News and Stop The ACLU.

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“Climate Change” May Make Umbrellas The Top Winter Gear

By William Teach November 6, 2013 – 2:48 pm

Today’s unhinged Warmist howler comes from the Boise Weekly

A World Without Winter
Climate change could mean umbrellas become winter gear

You know with a headline and sub-head like that, the article will be Typical Warmist Insanity

But what if Idaho winters went the way of the dodo? What if continued climate changes mean that winters heat up and seasonal snows become a memory told in tales that start with the phrase, “When I was a kid…”?

Funny, because snow is in the forecast.

While there are still some skeptics out there, the majority of scientists now agree that the world is experiencing climate change and that its effects vary by location. In Idaho, forecasting models predict that winters will continue to get warmer and, because of that, most of the precipitation in the Treasure Valley will come in the form of rain, with snows limited to higher and higher elevations.

I guess a 17 year pause is now considered “climate change”.

While warmer temperatures could mean that people would be able to spend more time outside, rain could seriously dampen traditional outdoor winter recreation opportunities, as well as push more people inside during particularly soggy periods.

Doom, I guess.

Abramovich pointed to the dry pattern that dominated Idaho from 2000 into 2007, which led to some explosive fire seasons. But starting in 2007, the pattern switched to a cool, wet one, leading to heavy snow years. While the winter of 2012-2013 wasn’t a record-breaker, it doesn’t determine what will happen this year.

So, wait, short term weather patterns change? Is that possible? Isn’t the weather supposed to be completely predictable?

“In the ’60s, weather was more normal,” Abramovich said. “Now you can’t depend on the spring rains.”

So, I guess we’ve established that the 60’s were optimal, when temperatures world-wide were dipping down despite an increase in GHGs.

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If All You See…

By William Teach November 6, 2013 – 1:00 pm

…is evil concrete releasing tons of greenhouse gases which cause heavy warm snow, you might just be a Warmist

The blog of the day is Jammie Wearing Fools, with a post on yet another Obamacare success story.

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How Soon Till De Blasio Voting Liberals Head To Greener Pastures?

By William Teach November 6, 2013 – 10:58 am

This is what NYC citizens voted for (this is the prepared text as released)

(NY Times) But let me be clear. Our work — all of our work — is really just beginning. And we have no illusions about the task that lies ahead.

Tackling inequality isn’t easy; it never has been, and never will be. The challenges we face have been decades in the making, and the problems we set out to address will not be solved overnight.

But make no mistake: the people of this city have chosen a progressive path, and tonight we set forth on it, together, as one city. (snip)

To maintain that greatness and to ensure that our brightest days are ahead of us, we must commit ourselves to progressive ideas that will lift us all. (snip)

So when we call on the wealthiest among us to pay just a little more in taxes to fund universal Pre-K and after-school programs we aren’t threatening anyone’s success. We are asking those who’ve done very well to ensure that every child has the same opportunity to do just as well as they have. (snip)

Progressive changes won’t happen overnight, but they will happen;

In other words, expect De Blasio and his base to push big taxation and redistributive plans, which could see many people get the heck out of NYC. And, unfortunately, they tend to come to areas without the Progressive insanity. And attempt to install their ideas which they just abandoned.

Say what you will about Bloomberg, the guy did mostly love business and money. Yes, he was a progressive nanny-stater, but if you listen to him talk, he loves the fact that NYC has lots and lots of millionaires. I listened to an interview with him back in September, and he was actually discussing how having all these millionaires and billionaires in NYC, along with serious money making companies, helped people via….get this….trickle down economics. A guy like Bloomberg must know something about How Economies Work.

De Blasio, on the other hand, is going to work hard to change the dynamics. De Blasio campaigned on the notion that the “elite” had their mayor, Bloomberg, and now it’s time for the 46% who are at or below poverty to get their mayor. And when that happens, Liberals abandon what they voted for and head for the hills. Hint for these folks: Detroit has plenty of housing at cheap pricing for ya.

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Marijuana Makes Big Gains In Votes: Will DOJ Sue?

By William Teach November 6, 2013 – 8:05 am

The Obama/Holder heavily politicized Department Of Justice is quick to act when any state or municipality decides to enhance illegal immigration law. Same with some states that pass voter ID laws. What about marijuana? So far, nothing when it comes to Colorado, which had perhaps the most amusing referendum

(CBS News) A proposal to impose hefty taxes on recreational marijuana, whose use was OK’d by Colorado voters in last year’s election, was an easy sell in the state Tuesday.

About two-thirds of those casting ballots approved a 15 percent excise tax plus a 10 percent sales tax on pot sales that begin next year.

The taxes are projected to bring in $70 million a year. The money will be used for school construction and regulating pot sales.

Hmm, so they’re going to use the money from people getting stoned for schools? Anyone else see the problem with pushing drug use to fund school construction? Oh, and then there’s that silly fact that marijuana is classified as a Schedule I drug by the federal government, making use or sale illegal.

BTW, has anyone considered that people can simply grow it at home, thereby avoiding any taxation?

Then you have Portland, Maine

Looks like recent polls showing a clear majority of Americans in favor of legalizing marijuana has played out that way in Portland, Maine,  and three Michigan cities where voters overwhelmingly approved legalizing possession of marijuana.

That city’s initiative of the voters legalizes …

“… the recreational use of marijuana by adults 21 years of age or older. It allows adults 21 years of age or older to legally possess up to 2.5 ounces of marijuana and paraphernalia. It also allows adults 21 years of age or older to engage in activities for the purpose of ascertaining the possession of marijuana and paraphernalia. It prohibits recreational use activities in public spaces, school grounds …”

The Portland Press Herald is reporting that 70 percent of voters have approved the measure. And, while there are more votes to come in, the lead has proponents declaring victory.

The three Michigan cities are Lansing, Jackson and Ferndale. Will Holder come down on these cities? Is justice blind?

Just to be clear, I do not see pot as being all that bad. It is a lot safer than alcohol. I could care less if people use it. I really don’t want to see it out in public, and I do not want to get a contact high from people’s use of it.

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Dems Try To Change Subject, Bring Iraq War Into Obama Lied Debate

By William Teach November 6, 2013 – 7:43 am

Liberals are furiously spinning to protect this turd of a law as it becomes quite clear that Mr. Obama knowingly lied about being able to keep your plan if you like it. Here’s another cute on

(Daily Caller) President Obama’s “you can keep your health insurance” lie is now being compared to President Bush’s “lie” that Iraq had Weapons of Mass Destruction.

The problem with the comparison is that only one of the claims was a lie.

“What about President Obama, did he tell the exact truth? I’d have to say no,” liberal radio host Bill Press said last week. “Should he have conditioned it? Yeah! He should have said, and Congressman John Yarmuth said this yesterday on our show, the president probably should have said 99 percent, he would have been absolutely right on. Or he should have said, by far most Americans, and he would have been absolutely right on. He didn’t, but I just have to say, for the Republicans to make a big deal of that, I remember another president saying Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and we had to invade that country and we did.”

DC writer Jamie Weinstein goes on to say that Obama lied, Bush was mystified, and highlights all the intelligence pre-invasion that informed Bush that Iraq did have WMD, along with intelligence agencies who thought the same, including the French, Germans, and UN. And let’s not forget all the Democrats who stated that Iraq was a threat, going back to President Clinton. You have Dems like John Kerry, Nancy Pelosi, Henry Waxman, Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, and the late Ted Kennedy. Jay Rockefeller and John Edwards both referred to Iraq as an “imminent threat”. Furthermore, President Bush’s 2003 State Of the Union discussed denying Iraq WMD, not capturing it.

That’s as far as I’m willing to re-litigate the Operation Iraqi Freedom. The fact is, Obama is president now. And he lied dozens of times about the effects of Obamacare. Willfully lied. Knowingly lied. And here’s the Washington Post’s Dana Milbank

No, the Obamacare pratfall is not Obama’s Iraq: The magnitude is entirely different, and the problems — Web site malfunctions and a wave of policy cancellations — are fixable. But the decision-making is disturbingly similar: In both cases, insular administrations, staffed by loyalists and obsessed with secrecy, participated in group-think and let the president hear only what they thought he wanted to hear.

This is brought up in terms of Obama being insular, and having too many “yes-men/women” surrounding him. And, no, it’s not Iraq. It’s worse. Team Obama’s mid-range estimate is that 93 million Americans will lose their health insurance plans. People will not be able to keep their doctors. Exchange insurance plans severely restrict what is considered “in-network”. Deductibles and premiums have significantly increased. Tens of millions will be moved to Medicaid. Government costs will skyrocket. And this effects one sixth of the American economy. People are being moved to part time status to avoid Obamacare penalties. Hiring has been effected. So have earnings. And Obamacare will continue to harm Americans.

Crossed at Right Wing News and Stop The ACLU.

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Gov’t For Gov’ts Sake: Raleigh Considers Regs To Safeguard Bicyclists From Opening Car Doors

By William Teach November 5, 2013 – 3:38 pm

Here’s the story:

(WRAL) The rules of the road could be changing for Raleigh drivers to make streets safer for bicyclists.

A public hearing is scheduled for 7 p.m. Tuesday at City Hall to discuss changes to Raleigh’s bicycle ordinance, including requiring drivers to check their rear-view mirrors after they park on a street to make sure the coast is clear before opening their doors.

The change, which has the backing of the Bicycle and Pedestrian Advisory Commission, would prevent “dooring,” which happens when a cyclist crashes into an open car door.

Here’s the thing: how can it be enforced? So far, the penalty hasn’t been spelled out. How could anyone prove a person didn’t look? If you open the door and a bicyclist runs into the door, you might have looked but failed to see them on the road zooming around. Maybe they cut in and out of traffic. If you’re like me, you look in the sideview mirror before opening the door when you park on the street. You may even move your whole head back. Ever have a close call even though you looked? I’ve been driving for almost 30 years, and have a couple close calls. And, believe me, I pay attention to what’s going on. I may need glasses, but I have incredible peripheral vision.

While we certainly want to protect bicyclists, they have to take responsibility and understand that riding on the streets is inherently unsafe, and they need to take precautions.

 

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If All You See…

By William Teach November 5, 2013 – 1:00 pm

…is a horrible dog which will cause the global temperature to go up 5 degrees, you might just be a Warmist

The blog of the day is Sweetness and Light, with a post on how many have lost their insurance so far.

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Flat Earth Warmists Really Upset About Nature Changing In Alaska

By William Teach November 5, 2013 – 11:23 am

How dare the biosphere of the Earth ever change?

(Alaska Dispatch) Dead seals littering beaches, bolts of fur dangling from deer, white worms squiggling in the meat of freshly killed grouse.

Incidents like these are some of the dozens of reports from the front lines of climate change in rural Alaska, where a volunteer army of observers is documenting unusual events to warn of potential health threats as new plants, bugs and animals migrate to the Far North.

My goodness, worms in dead grouse? Has that ever happened in the history of the world? And dead seals? I thought they lived forever!!!!1!!! Deer shedding? Good grief!

Odd insects that crawl like spiders and open and close their pincers while walking have been spotted in Kotzebue, said local observer Maija Lukin.

Boy howdy, how could new species that we’ve never seen before come about? Hasn’t there always just been a fixed amount?

“Insects that we have never seen are a threat to the ecosystem that we have here,” she wrote. “We don’t need new insects arriving and eating anything except mosquitoes!”

Love the qualifier at the end.

Taken together, the events can provide insight into important trends, such as the geographic range of deaths from sick seals that washed onto Alaska’s beaches, part of an “unusual mortality event” that began two years ago and prompted an international investigation by researchers. Why scores of seals got sick and died in that event is still unknown.

Unknown? Interesting, because the beginning of the article seemed to blame “climate change”.

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