Warmists Now Say AGW Will Cause Less US Mainland Hurricane Strikes

First they said that anthropogenic global warming would cause more hurricanes. Then, after that didn’t work out, they said they wouldn’t necessarily increase in amount, but, they would be stronger. And, now that that didn’t work out, we find out, via C3 Headlines

A team of NOAA researchers has recently completed a new analysis and have now conceived a new “consensus” science: global warming will cause less storms to strike the U.S.

Wang et al. analyzed the Atlantic Warming Pool (AWP) history and determined that when it was warmer and larger, the AWP birthed hurricanes that were farther from U.S. shores and less likely to strike the Atlantic coasts. Ergo, global warming may indeed cause larger storms but they would dissipate over open waters before reaching U.S.

For this investigation, Wang and colleagues divided the observed history of Atlantic tropical cyclones (since 1970) into years with large AWPs and those with small AWPs and then tallied up within each division storm characteristics such as number and tracking tendency. What they found was that large AWPs were associated with more storms, but—and this is important—storms which preferentially stayed off-shore and did not make landfall along the U.S. coast. In other words, the hurricanes which formed became less menacing…as the AWP increased in size it made conditions more favorable for tropical cyclone formation and growth further out in the Atlantic Ocean. And at the same time, it altered the atmospheric circulation patterns over the central Atlantic Ocean such that the storms which did form were steered more northward into the open Atlantic and away from the U.S. mainland.” [Chunzai Wang, Hailong Liu, Sang-Ki Lee, Robert Atlas 2011: Geophysical Research Letters]

As C3 points out, there has been no major (cat 3) strike on the US mainland since 2005 (Wilma). I’ve pointed that out, as well. There’s been no US landfalling hurricanes since 2008 (Ike hit Texas on Sept 13, 2008). Hurricane Irene (2011) was not a hurricane when it came ashore either in North Carolina nor New Jersey.

Going six years with no major strikes is unprecedented. Three years with no landfalling hurricanes hasn’t happened since the 1860’s. So, the Warmists have to rewrite the “science” to match their unhinged alarmism. This is not science, it’s cult members attempting to match things that have happened to their cultish beliefs.

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One Response to “Warmists Now Say AGW Will Cause Less US Mainland Hurricane Strikes”

  1. RandyG says:

    Rewriting the science to match their beliefs.
    Cannot be said better. Well done William!

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