Florida and Governor Ron DeSantis have taken a lot of grief from Democrats for the way they’ve handled things during COVID. They were one of the least strict states. They never had a statewide mandate for masks, and DeSantis suspended all fines and penalties associated with not adhering to COVID-19-related restrictions on Sept. 25, hindering local leaders from enforcing their mandates. They’ve kept as much of the state open as possible. They really didn’t stop spring breakers last year, and you can bet if there had been big outbreaks it would have made the news. Same with this year. So, obviously, doom, right?
Ever since U.S. COVID-19 cases started their precipitous post-holiday decline, Americans have been anxious about the threat of yet another hurdle on the long road to recovery: a possible “fourth wave†of infections driven by the newer, more contagious U.K. variant known as B.1.1.7. Experts, meanwhile, have been watching Florida as a bellwether — the place where a fourth wave would probably crash first.
After all, Florida has more documented B.1.1.7 cases than any other state. It’s also rolled back precautions more quickly than most. If a spike is coming, the thinking went, Florida is where it would start.
Except … it hasn’t started yet.
Quite the opposite, in fact. After peaking on Jan. 8 at just under 18,000, Florida’s average daily case count has fallen by nearly 75 percent; today it’s down to 4,800. Hospitalizations have declined by half over the same period, as has Florida’s positivity rate (which now stands at 5.9 percent). And while other states such as New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee and Idaho are starting to see cases plateau — or even inch upward — as residents relax and restrictions are loosened, Florida’s case and hospitalization numbers have continued to fall by about 10 percent each week.
“We have a bellwether to know if the B.1.1.7 strain will hit the US — Florida,†Dr. Eric Topol of Scripps Research wrote earlier this week. “And there’s no sign of any increase in cases. All good so far.â€
It’s probably helpful if the Blue staters stay in their own blue cities, rather than escaping and traveling and bringing COVID with them, as happened early on in the first few months of 2020. But, Florida haters (because it’s a Republican state) really, really want Florida to tank (which would mean people getting sick and dying) for political purposes
The key phrase, as always during this unpredictable pandemic, is “so far.†Just because a variant-driven fourth wave hasn’t yet struck Florida (or the U.S. as a whole) doesn’t necessarily mean it won’t, and nothing heightens the risk of another surge more than reckless, maskless indoor gatherings — at full-capacity restaurants; at crowded bars; at private parties — with lots of unvaccinated people. Events such as this week’s 300,000-person motorcycle rally in Daytona Beach are still risky. Like all Americans, Floridians should proceed with caution.
First, if people want to take that risk, that’s on them. It’s not government’s place to restrict freedom, even if it’s people making poor choices. Me, I wouldn’t go there. I’m fine with social distancing, no touching, washing hands a lot, don’t touch face (which is why I’m OK with a mask, because I’ll touch my face a lot during the day). That’s me. If you want to do different, OK with me, just don’t get in my space. I’ll avoid those situations.
But, what happens when there is no big spread? You won’t hear a peep out of the news.
Of course, Floridians have for months enjoyed more “freedom†to crowd indoors (without masks) than many of their fellow Americans, a fact that Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis takes pride in. But that only strengthens the case for fourth-wave optimism. If a state with a lot of B.1.1.7 and not a lot of restrictions is still doing OK, shouldn’t the rest of the country take that as a sign of hope?
The tentative answer is yes. America’s overall immunity numbers are almost identical to Florida’s: 30 percent infected, 19 percent vaccinated, about 40 percent protected to some degree. Spring is 10 days away; the weather will only get warmer. And cases and hospitalizations continue to fall nationwide by 10 to 15 percent a week.
So, perhaps lockdown didn’t work, and DeSantis was right.