Not to be the enthusiasm vampire (a saying we picked up in a sales management seminar-pretty much the only thing*), but, McCain may be leading in the Gallup/UselessA Today poll 54-44, and in other polls, but, as we go down the final stretch, remember that the polls are national polls, and have little bearing on the actual election results. What it comes down to is the electoral votes, as you all know, and I bet many of the Direct Democracy libs are abandoning their cherished DD in favor of the current models, based on State polling data going back anywhere from September 2 to late July. (all data via Electoral Vote)
Right now, Barry leads 301-224, with 13 electoral votes for Virginia up for grabs with a dead heat. Right now, McCain is losing in several States that Bush won (Bush-Kerry in parentheses)
- Nevada B47-M45 (B51-K48)
- New Mexico is a butt woopin’ at the moment B50-M41 (B50-K49) New Mexico has tended to go Dem, BTW
- Colorado B45-M43 (B52-K47)
- North Dakota B43-M40 (B63-K36, so, lots of work to do in ND)
- Indiana B55-M40. Real bad there (B50-K49)
- Ohio B47-M45 (B51-K49)
There are also a few states, such as Montana, South Dakota, North Carolina, and Indiana where it is a bit close for comfort in what should be easy states for McCain. And, with Virginia, where it is tied, and Republicans have killed Dems in 3 of the last 4 elections.
It is also a little close in Florida, M46-B45.
Interestingly, McCain is only 5 out in Pa, and 8 out in New York. The GOP has been crushed in NY in the last 4 elections. 9 out in NJ. 7 in Oregon. 5 in Wisconsin and Michigan, but, doubt that will change anywhere to a win. NJ and NY, doubtful as well.
Unfortunately, the last data for Delaware was in February. Alaska is, as usual, solidly GOP. Go figure.
McCain needs to pick back up all those states Bush won, or substitute Pa or Oregon. And he needs Florida.
There is still some good time, and, we need to see what the Palin effect brings on, especially with some of the states that haven’t had polls since Palin made her speech, and over the past few weeks.
Another big factor will be the youth vote, which often fails to show up. Then we have the debates. Time will tell.
And yet another factor will be if Barry realizes that he is running against John McCain, not Sarah Palin.
Of course, if McCain loses, Republicans will be disappointed, but, will go on with their lives. If Obama lose, if you thought you saw bat-sh*t crazy over the past 4 years, you ain’t seen nothing yet!
