When Can A Big Storm Or Drought Be Blamed On Climate Change?

That’s the question NPR delves into. Unsurprisingly, the answer seems to be “always” and “whenever it’s convenient”

(NPR) Nowadays, when there’s a killer heat wave or serious drought somewhere, people wonder: Is this climate change at work? It’s a question scientists have struggled with for years. And now there’s a new field of research that’s providing some answers. It’s called “attribution science”— a set of principles that allows scientists to determine when it’s a change in climate that’s altering weather events … and when it isn’t.

The principles start with the premise that, as almost all climate scientists expect, there will be more “extreme” weather events if the planet warms up much more: heat waves, droughts, huge storms.

Got that? They start out with a premise based on wishful thinking and prognostication. Too bad extreme weather isn’t cooperating.

But then, there have always been periodic bouts of extreme weather on Earth, long before climate change. How do you tell the difference between normal variation in weather — including these rare extremes — and what climate change is doing?

That sort of discernment is difficult, so scientists have had a rule, a kind of mantra: You can’t attribute any single weather event to climate change. It could just be weird weather.

Then they took a close at last year’s heat wave in Australia.

And, of course, as we all know, they’re blaming that heat wave on Mankind, because it can’t possibly be what happens during a Holocene warm period, which, incidentily, has seen an statistically significant warming in a generation.

Too many people are deeply invested in man caused Hotcoldwetdry, so they simply can’t say “yeah, these things happen”. It has to be mankind at fault, else, how do they effect political change to a completely leftist political, social, and economic system ?

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12 Responses to “When Can A Big Storm Or Drought Be Blamed On Climate Change?”

  1. John says:

    Teach are any of the factors that produced climate change in the past affecting us now ?
    Why do you think the both polar ice caps are shrinking?
    Do you believe that you will ever again see a years temp that is as cool as the average temp of your lifetime. ?
    Do you think that this year will break the all time heat record. ?

  2. John says:

    Don’t ” they ” believe the temps in the Holocene were caused by an orbital change ? One that us not taking place now. ?

  3. Jeffery says:

    Teach,

    You should have read the entire article. A bit after you stopped reading was this:

    “Martin Hoerling, a research meteorologist with the U.S. government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is also part of this “climate forensics” movement. “It’s almost [taken] for granted that climate change is influencing all manners of weather events,” Hoerling says. The question now, he adds, is: “How did it influence, and in which direction? Did it make [an extreme weather event] more likely or less likely — and by how much more likely or less likely?””

    Did you see this? “The question now, he adds, is: “How did it influence, and in which direction? Did it make [an extreme weather event] more likely or less likely…”

    He assumes that the incredible amount of heat energy added to the Earth will have an impact on the climate, including extreme weather events, but he’s interested in knowing if it makes them MORE OR LESS LIKELY. Sounds like science to me. Other scientists, based on statistical analysis, determined the Australian and Pacific weather extremes could be attributed to global warming but that the extremes in the US could not be. If they were hoaxers hell-bent on world domination, wouldn’t they conclude that all extreme weather was due to climate change?

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  5. Jeffery says:

    Teach claims: “Unsurprisingly, the answer seems to be “always” and “whenever it’s convenient””

    That’s not what the article says or concludes at all. Why do you lie?

  6. david7134 says:

    Keep up the good work, you have the nut jobs just jumping all over the place.

  7. Conservative Beaner says:

    When it comes to liberals and other dumbasses anything can be blamed on Climate Change, including their stupidity.

    To err is human.
    To vote Democrat is just plain f*^%$ing stupid.

  8. Jeffery says:

    dave and beaner,

    Did either of you read the article? Of course not. You just drop by to squawk.

  9. gitarcarver says:

    Did either of you read the article? Of course not. You just drop by to squawk.

    Did you read the post?

    Clearly you did not as all you did was to stop by and disagree without any substance.

    BAWK!

  10. Jeffery says:

    gc,

    Great addition! Now suck my balls, you squid.

  11. gitarcarver says:

    Great addition!

    Thanks!

    It was in the same tone that you wrote dave and beaner, so I figured you would like it.

    Now suck my balls, you squid.

    Well, I don’t lean that way but according to your wife, you don’t have anything down there to begin with.

  12. jp blickenstaff says:

    Since Climate by definition is an average of weather over 20 years, Climate cannot effect weather. Depending upon which of the dozen or so descriptive climate systems in use, weather sources, rainfall, temps, humidity, vegetation are used to describe a climate. The boundaries of a climate zone are flexible and vague since they blend off into another zone. You can’t stand with one foot in one zone and the other foot in another zone. To get climate change, the averages of the variables have to change over 20 years. One storm, one drought, does not make climate change. It has to be a consistent change over many years.

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