Of all the articles I’ve perused on this little bit of doomsaying, I’ve yet to see one which gives a timeframe
Experts warn California of a disaster ‘larger than any in world history.’ It’s not an earthquake.
Megadrought may be the main weather concern across the West right now amid the constant threat of wildfires and earthquakes. But a new study warns another crisis is looming in California: “Megafloods.”
Climate change is increasing the risk of floods that could submerge cities and displace millions of people across the state, according to a study released Friday.
It says that an extreme monthlong storm could bring feet of rain – in some places, more than 100 inches – to hundreds of miles of California. Similarly unrelenting storms have happened in the past, before the region became home to tens of millions of people.
Now, each degree of global warming is dramatically increasing the odds and size of the next megaflood, the study says.
How much? Because we’ve only seen a minor 1.5F increase in global temperatures since 1850. What’s the timeframe for this flooding?
In fact, the study found that climate change makes such catastrophic flooding twice as likely to occur.
As compared to when? What happened during the previous Holocene warm periods? How about during the cool periods
Long before climate change, California’s Great Flood of 1862 stretched up to 300 miles long and 60 miles across. According to the study, a similar flood now would displace 5 million to 10 million people, cut off the state’s major freeways for perhaps weeks or months with massive economic damage, and submerge major Central Valley cities as well as parts of Los Angeles.
So, what caused it in 1862, not long after the Little Ice Age ended?
The researchers used new high-resolution weather models and existing climate models to compare two extreme scenarios, according to UCLA: one that would occur about once a century in the historical climate of recent decades and another in the projected climate of 2081-2100.
And there we go, computer models with extreme doom built in.
“Parts of cities such as Sacramento, Stockton, Fresno and Los Angeles would be under water even with today’s extensive collection of reservoirs, levees and bypasses. It is estimated that it would be a $1 trillion disaster, larger than any in world history,” according to the statement.
Not seeing the downside.
