Warmist Explains “Mutually Insured Destruction”

Over at the NY Times, which is known for allowing both sides to provide viewpoints (sic), Warmist Maggie Koerth-Baker is super concerned about what hotcoldwetdry might do to the insurance industry

In March 1947, a winter of heavy snowfall followed by a quick thaw and torrents of rain swelled rivers throughout England and Wales. Over the course of just 13 days, at least 27,000 homes and businesses were flooded. It was one of the worst natural disasters in British history. But thanks to climate change, which can prevent the thick snowpack from which spring floods draw their strength, that sort of flood may be less likely to happen today.

Kinda what we’ve been seeing around a good chunk of the world, as the last 4 out of 5 winters have been brutal. Oh, and the late 40’s was a time of dipping temperatures. I do find it interesting that Maggie uses monster snows to push her science religion.

The seemingly inexorable (and increasingly irreversible) march of planetary warming is something we tend to associate with increased devastation — floods and famine, droughts and storms. In many cases, that’s true. But there’s a reason scientists prefer the term “climate change” to “global warming” — not everything is getting warmer. As the global average temperature rises, it alters weather systems, changing patterns of heat and cold and shifting wind currents. Risk is redistributed along with them.

See? Global warming causes cooling too! Nothing can ever disprove their pet cult doctrine, hence the name change to “climate change”.

Anyhow, the rest is about how the insurance industry is, like, super concerned, but there are a few who are taking advantage of this political issue and making some good money off of it being responsible or something.

As more groups like the Geneva Association call for risk models that account for climate change, politicians are going to get a different message. Denying climate change isn’t just foolish — it’s bad for business.

What Maggie and the rest of the Warmists do not seem to understand is that virtually no one denies that the climate changes, nor that the Earth is currently in one of its warm periods, which have been going on between cool periods since the end of the last glacial age 20,000 years ago. What we are debating is the cause of this warm period. Some will maintain that it is solely natural. I will maintain that it is mostly natural, with some anthropogenic forcings, mostly at the local level, ie, the Urban Heat Island Effect.

Weather can be bad for business. A cool period similar to the Little Ice Age would be much worse. Mankind has thrived during the warm periods during the Holocene, most of which were much warmer than the Modern Warm Period. If you really want to know what’s going on from the Warmist POV, follow the money and politics. Oh, and the last thing we need from Warmists, mostly part of the Progressive crowd, are ideas on How To Make Economies Work.

Read: Warmist Explains “Mutually Insured Destruction” »

If All You See…

…is a drought caused desert slowly reclaiming the land, you might just be a Warmist

The blog of the day is The Other McCain, with a discussion of a racist attack.

Read: If All You See… »

The Real Reason For Miley Cyrus’ VMA Performance

Read: The Real Reason For Miley Cyrus’ VMA Performance »

Mind-Blowing Paper Links Current Warming Pause To Cool Pacific Waters

In Warmist World, the cooling Pacific is surely caused by too much heat

(Judith Curry) My mind has been blown by a new paper just published in Nature.

Just when I least expected it, after a busy day when I took a few minutes to respond to a query from a journalist about a new paper just published in Nature [link to abstract]:

Recent global warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling

Yu Kosaka and Shang-Ping Xie

Abstract.  Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations.We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r 50.97 for 1970–2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southernUSA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to aLa-Nina-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

This area accounts for 8.2% of the Earth’s surface. The paper seems to take part of the Warmist view that any warming is caused by Mankind, but any cooling or pause is caused by nature. Bob Tisdale notes

Anyone with a little common sense who’s reading the abstract and the hype around the blogosphere and the Meehl et al papers will logically now be asking: if La Niña events can stop global warming, then how much do El Niño events contribute? 50%? The climate science community is actually hurting itself when they fail to answer the obvious questions.

Warmists will continue to say that warming is mostly/solely caused by Mankind’s output of greenhouse gases, specifically you, dear reader, for driving a fossil fueled vehicle and using hair spray. They will either ignore this paper, or simply find a way to, again, blame the cooling on GHGs from Mankind, much like the blame snow and cold on warming, and say that the heat is doing a Where’s Waldo? in the deep oceans. It’s a cult, not a science.

Warmist leaning Climate Central highlights just how they plan on treating the paper.

In other words, natural climate variability affects the rate of global warming like a dial controlling the sound on a speaker — at some points the volume is turned up, and the planet warms faster, while at other times it is dialed back down, with a slower rate of warming. Scientists have also warned that at some point, the speaker may go all the way to 11, with warming at rates never before seen in human history, depending how high greenhouse gases climb.

And by GHGs, they mean Mankind-released ones. Because natural variability can never account for warming in their world. And, because you charged your iPhone and leave the charger plugged into the wall, the temperatures are soon going to go all Spinal Tap and boil the face of the Earth or something.

Both Ms. Curry and Mr. Tisdale delve into the science of the paper, if you want to dig deep.

Read: Mind-Blowing Paper Links Current Warming Pause To Cool Pacific Waters »

Five Questions On Syria For POTUS Who Received Nobel Peace Prize Before Even Knowing Where All The White House Bathrooms Were

I suppose there’s something raaaaacist in that headline, but, hey, don’t blame me, blame the Politico’s Glenn Thrush and Leigh Munsil, who offer up 5 questions for Obama on Syria

President Barack Obama is not a commander in chief drawn to military adventure nor an explainer-in-chief who is especially fond of delivering Oval Office addresses.

But Obama’s reluctance to offer a detailed explanation of an anticipated attack on Syria has puzzled allies and adversaries alike who warn that even a short engagement — likely two to three days of missile strikes — could draw the U.S. into the kind of “dumb” war Obama opposed as a candidate in 2008.

Obama — awarded the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize before he knew where all the White House bathrooms were located — is in an unfamiliar and deeply uncomfortable position. He was elected on a wave of contempt for George W. Bush over Iraq, but now finds himself on the wrong side of public opinion — only 25 percent of Americans supported U.S. intervention in Syria after a chemical weapons attack.

Obama plans no Oval Office or other meaningful announcement, speech, notification, nor explanation to the American regarding Syria. Apparently, according Glenn Thrush, the White House stated that an Oval Office address is considered “passé” by Team Obama. My bet is on a couple throwaway lines inserted into a campaign style speech on one of Obama’s favorite subjects (which doesn’t include actually fixing the economy) given at either a high school or college. So, if Obama leaves town in the next few days, expect military strikes to start shortly.

1. What is the goal in attacking Syria?

The answer seems to be something well short of a regime change but somewhat tougher than a face slap at Assad.

American’s would love to know, because the O admin continues to yammer on about possible operations, alerting Syria as to what Obama plans to do. Of course, Obama has apparently made no decision on Syria. One would have thought plans would have been made by Team O after the multiple times he warned Syria about “red lines”.

2. Why attack now?

It’s all about cashing a rhetorical check Obama wrote Aug. 20, 2012, when he famously declared, “a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized.”

We’re also hearing about “moral imperatives” and that this is in the best interest for US security and national interests, though no one in the O admin is bothering to explain just why. But, if anything is done, let’s face the fact that this would be about Obama saving face.

3. What happens if Syria, Iran or Hezbollah attack Israel?

Welcome to Obama’s big nightmare — an act of controlled retaliation that escalates into uncontrollable regional conflagration.

Then someone shouldn’t have run his mouth with an off-teleprompter throw-away threat a few times.

4. What’s with all these leaks?

In most conflicts, countries guard their military plans with shoot-the-leaker secrecy. (snip)

Defense sources say Team Obama wants to keep expectations low and avoid the argument that the president is starting a third war or dragging the U.S. into a boots-on-the-ground quagmire. So officials are making clear that this won’t involve ground troops or even human pilots in warplanes overhead in Syria but rather only the safest and most precise weapons in the U.S. arsenal: Tomahawk missiles.

We’ll probably know what the ground crews stencil on the cruise missiles before they are even launched. Which will be posted on the White House Twitter feed.

5. Does Obama need to consult Congress?

The White House hasn’t said one way or the other — but Obama is preparing to anyway.

If he does, that would be a good start. The article reports that Obama plans on telling Congress, in person and by teleconference, starting today. Personally, I suspect we’ll start hearing about how Obama sent an email or a flunky in person to tell Congress Critters something, which really doesn’t provide any sort of explanation. Regarding Obama’s Big Libyan Adventure (how’s that worked out so far? Well, good for Britain and France, since the oil is still flowing to them), Obama told Congress with a letter. I don’t expect much more, because, sheesh, He’s The President, and has No Need To Inform Anyone As To His Actions. Including the American People.

Crossed at Right Wing News and Stop The ACLU.

Read: Five Questions On Syria For POTUS Who Received Nobel Peace Prize Before Even Knowing Where All The White House Bathrooms Were »

McCain: Hey, “Immigration Reform” Could Cause Problems For American Workers

Oh, good. We should pass this right now, as they were telling us a few months ago

(Washington Times) Two Republicans who helped write the Senate’s immigration bill said Tuesday that they are convinced it will finally be able to get a handle on the porous southwestern border — but acknowledged it could mean problems for American workers.

Sens. John McCain and Jeff Flake, both Arizona Republicans, said they fear that foreign workers will be more attractive to hire than Americans for some companies because the foreigners won’t be eligible for the same health care benefits.

“I think it’s a problem. I don’t know what else to say,” Mr. McCain told a questioner at a forum on immigration sponsored by the Arizona Republic newspaper and KPNX-TV, both based in Phoenix.

That’s what is called a political gaffe, ie, unintentionally telling the truth.

McCain also said that despite previous amnesty and immigration reform failing to secure the border, “this time it’ll be different”. Trust him and Obama.

Read: McCain: Hey, “Immigration Reform” Could Cause Problems For American Workers »

350.org Wants To Name Hurricanes After Climate Realists

Oh, and suggests that the lack of hurricanes is also due to “climate change”

(Climate Progress) 350 Action is out with a video that is as jarring as it is hilarious. It notes the injustice of naming devastating hurricanes after people who, most likely, had nothing to do with their destructive power.

It suggests a new nomenclature: “As climate change continues to create more frequent and devastating storms, we propose a new naming system. One that names extreme storms after policymakers who deny climate change.”

I’ll put the video below the fold.

There have been no hurricanes in August, which would be the first time in 11 years if none arise this week. The Atlantic has seen a string of named Tropical Storms that did not reach hurricane strength — possibly because of increased dry and dusty air coming off the Sahara.

Remember when Warmists were proclaiming that the new normal would be like 2005? Then when landfalling hurricane activity dropped off sharply, they suggested that activity might be lower, hurricanes would be stronger and bigger? Perhaps now they’re going to start saying that there will be fewer hurricanes due to Mankind, much like they now blame cold and snow on Mankind, particularly on our use of fossil fuels.

Yet Jeff Masters of Weather Underground suggests that these conditions will soon end: “The big guns of the African Monsoon are firing off a salvo of African tropical waves over the next two weeks that will find the most favorable conditions for development that we’ve seen this year.”

This suggests a more active period of hurricane weather in September.

Warmists really, really, really, really want to see some destructive hurricanes make landfall, the better to push their cult.

Read More »

Read: 350.org Wants To Name Hurricanes After Climate Realists »

If All You See…

…is a horrid flooded drought world, you might just be a Warmist

The blog of the day is Director Blue, with a post saying we are no longer a representative republic.

Read: If All You See… »

Cass Sunstein Wonders Why People Don’t Fear “Climate Change” Enough

I’d hazard a guess that it’s because people, like Sunstein’s former boss, The Man With The Largest Carbon Footprint In The World (41,000 metric tons), refuse to practice what they preach.

(Bloomberg) With respect to the science of climate change, many experts regard the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as the world’s authoritative institution. A draft summary of its forthcoming report was leaked last week. It describes the panel’s growing confidence that climate change is real, that it is a result of human action, and that if the world continues on its current course, it will face exceedingly serious losses and threats (including a significant rise in sea levels by century’s end).

While the draft report states these conclusions with unprecedented conviction, they are broadly consistent with the panel’s judgments from the past two decades, which raises an obvious question: Why have so many nations (including China and the U.S., the world’s leading greenhouse-gas emitters) not done more in response?

Perhaps it’s because this authoritarian, er, authoritative body, composed of hysterics, lies, exaggerations, false science, and un-scientific data…oh, and lots and lots of people pushing for more governmental control over people and economies….are also hypocrites. Every year we see thousands descend on some lovely vacation spot in fossil fueled vehicles to tell us that fossil fuels are bad. Remember COP13 in the exotic vacation spot of Bali, where so many private jets were used that they had to dead head (fly without passengers) them to other islands to park them? How about the one in Durban, South Africa, where they held a contest to fly the winner all the way from the west coast of the US to give a 10 minute speech on the evils of fossil fuels?

There are many answers. Skeptics say that the IPCC is biased and wrong. Companies whose economic interests are at stake continue to fight against regulatory controls. The leaders of some nations think that if they acted unilaterally to reduce their emissions, they would impose significant costs on their citizens without doing much to reduce climate change. Especially in a difficult economic period, they don’t think it makes sense to act on their own.

To this extent, the real challenge lies in producing an international agreement. It isn’t easy to obtain a consensus on the timing and expense of reductions, especially because developing nations (including China) insist that developed nations (including the U.S.) are obliged to take the most costly steps toward reducing emissions.

Perhaps it’s that they had an international agree, the Kyoto Protocol, of which most signatory nations failed to fulfill their obligations. The US was not a signatory, as the Democrat led Senate voted unanimously against joining, as it would ruin our economy. President Clinton agreed. Perhaps it’s because every recommended solution leads to more authoritarian government.

All of these positions play a major role. But we should not disregard purely psychological factors. An understanding of what human beings fear — and what they do not — helps to explain why nations haven’t insisted on more significant emissions reductions. (snip)

In a political context, citizens might demand protection against a risk that threatens them today, tomorrow or next month. But if they perceive climate change as mostly a threat to future generations — if significant sea-level rises seem to be decades away — they are unlikely to have a sense of urgency.

Perhaps it’s because the majority of prognostications from Warmists have failed. Perhaps it’s because their computer models cannot predict what happened in the past. Perhaps it’s that they keep making dire predictions of doom and gloom 50-100 years out, more akin to the crazy people who stand on sidewalks yammering about Armageddon and repent now.

In this light, it should not be surprising if people don’t get much exercised by the IPCC’s forthcoming report. All the obstacles are daunting — skepticism about the science, economic self-interest, and the difficulties of designing cost-effective approaches and obtaining an international agreement. But the world is unlikely to make much progress on climate change until the barrier of human psychology is squarely addressed.

Perhaps it’s about all the issues with the previous IPCC reports (way more than what is listed at that Wiki page). Perhaps it’s all the scientists who call the IPCC reports junk science. Perhaps it’s that the AR5 report cites the WWF and Greenpeace, which previously provided more junk science the AR4. Perhaps it’s that since they can’t scientifically account for why there’s been a 17+ year warming pause, they find handy dandy excuses, such as the heat pulling a Where’s Waldo? in the deep oceans. Perhaps it’s that they discount the effects of nature, such as water vapor and the big nuclear furnace in the sky. Perhaps it’s that 4 of the past 5 winters have been brutal around much of the Earth, and many finally experienced spring when summer rolled around. Perhaps it’s that Warmists now blame cold and snow on greenhouse gases. Perhaps it’s that they discount the Urban Heat Island Effect.

Perhaps it’s that people understand a warmer atmosphere is better than a cold one. And perhaps it’s that people see that the prescriptions all seem to be extensions of far left Progressive doctrine, based on un-scientific principles which call for Other People to be forced to change their lives, yet Warmists rarely do anything within their own lives. Warmists apparently don’t fear hotcoldwetdry enough to markedly Do Something themselves, like give up their own fossil fueled travel.

Read: Cass Sunstein Wonders Why People Don’t Fear “Climate Change” Enough »

White House States They’re Not Looking For Regime Change In Syria

If we do start bombing, what would be the point? A little spanking?

(The Hill) The White House said Tuesday that President Obama is not seeking “regime change” in Syria from any military strikes launched in response to President Bashar Assad’s alleged use of chemical weapons.

“The options we are considering are not about regime change,” White House press secretary Jay Carney said. “That is not what we are contemplating here.”

The White House spokesman said that the administration was instead simply weighing a reaction to the violation of “an international standard” barring the use of chemical weapons.

“It is not our policy to respond to this transgression with regime change,” he said.

So, what’s the point? As CNN notes, over 100,000 have been killed during the civil war (which includes lots of Islamists from a range of countries), so, does 1,300 killed in a chemical attack outweigh 100000 killed in conventional attacks? Either way you’re dead. But, one apparently crossed an arbitrary red line

Carney said Tuesday that Syria’s use of chemical weapons did pose an actual threat to the U.S.

“I believe that absolutely allowing the use of chemical weapons on a significant scale to take place without a response would present a significant challenge to or threat to the United States’ national security,” Carney said.

He forgot to tell us exactly what that threat is. I’d like to hear what it is, and not just from the White House, but from others who have been pushing for action, such as John McCain. Because I don’t see it. Perhaps someone has a guess?

(The Hill) Airstrikes on Syria would turn the U.S. military into “al Qaeda’s air force,” former Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) told The Hill.

The outspoken anti-war activist said any such action would plunge the United States into another war in the Middle East and embolden Islamist militants fighting Bashar Assad’s regime.

“So what, we’re about to become Al Qaeda’s air force now?” Kucinich said. “This is a very, very serious matter that has broad implications internationally. And to try to minimize it by saying we’re just going to have a ‘targeted strike’ — that’s an act of war. It’s not anything to be trifled with.”

I can’t remember anytime that I’ve ever agreed with Kucinich, but, hey, there’s always a first.

Reuters is reporting that US spies intercepted calls proving that the Syrian government initiated the chemical attack. Iran is saying that Israel will be the first victim of a US strike.

I’m betting on 830pm Friday for the strikes. That would be 330am in Damascus. What’s your bet?

Oh, and when does Obama give the Nobel Peace Prize back?

Crossed at Right Wing News and Stop The ACLU.

Read: White House States They’re Not Looking For Regime Change In Syria »

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