Hotcold Take: Your Fossil Fuels Addiction Is Causing Tropical Systems To Wander

By William Teach May 5, 2020 – 2:47 pm

As Anthony Watts notes “if you can’t prove more hurricanes, say it’s making them relocate.” Remember, the Cult of Climastrology first said there would be more hurricanes after the big season of 2005, at which point landfalling systems fell off and we were mostly getting low level hurricanes and tropical systems. And we had a record period between landfalling hurricanes and landfalling major hurricanes for the U.S. So, they said that was also ‘climate change’, and made excuses like that it was causing more wind shear, killing the systems. Then Superstorm Sandy, and said that was the new normal. Nope. And that we’d have fewer systems, but they would be stronger. Nope. Now

Study: Climate change has been influencing where tropical cyclones rage

While the global average number of tropical cyclones each year has not budged from 86 over the last four decades, climate change has been influencing the locations of where these deadly storms occur, according to new NOAA-led research published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.

New research indicates that the number of tropical cyclones has been rising since 1980 in the North Atlantic and Central Pacific, while storms have been declining in the western Pacific and in the South Indian Ocean.

“We show for the first time that this observed geographic pattern cannot be explained only by natural variability,” said Hiroyuki Murakami, a climate researcher at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and lead author.

Murakami used climate models to determine that greenhouse gases, manmade aerosols including particulate pollution, and volcanic eruptions were influencing where tropical cyclones were hitting.

So, wait, things change on Earth? Holy cow! It’s like these people think that Earth is always the same….wait, what was that part about tropical cyclones staying the same over the last 4 decades?

Oh, but, wait

Climate models project decreases in tropical cyclones toward the end of the 21st century from the annual average of 86 to about 69 worldwide, according to the new study. Declines are projected in most regions except in the Central Pacific, including Hawaii, where tropical cyclones activity is expected to increase.

Despite a projected decline in tropical cyclones by 2100, many of these cyclones will be significantly more severe. Why? Rising sea surface temperatures fuel the intensity and destructiveness of tropical storms.

Yup, back to that one. Sigh.

Read: Hotcold Take: Your Fossil Fuels Addiction Is Causing Tropical Systems To Wander »

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If All You See…

By William Teach May 5, 2020 – 1:00 pm

…is an area flooded from carbon pollution, you might just be a Warmist

The blog of the day is Green Jihad, with a post on the climatology cult of death.

Since I couldn’t find a bigger, clearer shot of the photo, double shot of her below the fold, so, check out 357 Magnum, with a post wondering if a Muslim shoots a 7 year old, and the media buries it, did it really happen?

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Handsy Joe To Blacks: I’m From The Government, And We’re Here To Control You, Er, Help You

By William Teach May 5, 2020 – 10:30 am

Well, you had to know that Joe Biden was going to release a “plan” to patronize the black community, right? Because that’s what Democrats do. What they’ve been doing since the 1970’s, when the party of the KKK, Jim Crow, and segregation realized that they couldn’t continue to block blacks from everything, so they found another way to attempt to keep blacks down, while also figuring out a way to get their votes. Pander to them, give them money, crappy housing, and you know all the rest. Joe is Here To Help

Lift Every Voice: The Biden Plan for Black America

Among the greatest honors of my life was a trip I took to Memphis in October of 2018 to visit the National Civil Rights Museum and receive the institution’s annual Freedom Award. While I was there, I had a chance to stand on the balcony of the Lorraine Motel where Dr. King was assassinated half a century earlier, and reflect on all of the progress we’d made — and that which we hadn’t — in the years since that unbearable day. (snip)

Fifty-two years later, his charge remains as vital as it was that night. We have made extraordinary strides along so many fronts — but for African American families, we have not yet made America what it ought to be. The truth is, African Americans can never have a fair shot at the American Dream so long as entrenched disparities are still allowed to chip away at opportunity. You don’t have an equal chance when your schools are substandard, when your home is undervalued, when your car insurance costs more for no good reason, or when the poverty rate for African Americans is more than twice what it is for whites.

Which is interesting, since it was and still are the policies of Democrats that cause this. Who runs the schools? Democrats. It’s Democrats who try and keep blacks in their own squalid, government run neighborhoods. After 50 years of trying to get so many blacks out of poverty through government help, it’s interesting that Trump comes in and the black unemployment rate, which grew under Obama, dropped quite a bit and earnings have gone up. It’s better when government enables rather than government controls.

This is not a new priority for me — tackling systemic racism and fighting for civil rights is what brought me to public service as a local councilman in the years just after Dr. King’s death, and it has been a driving force throughout my career ever since. I was proud to fight against discriminatory school district funding and housing practices in my own community as a young man — and prouder still of the work I did in the U.S. Senate, co-sponsoring the Civil Rights Act of 1990 to protect against employment discrimination, leading efforts to reauthorize and extend the Fair Housing Act, and spearheading multiple reauthorizations of the Voting Rights Act to protect African Americans’ right to vote.

Sure you did, Joe, sure you did. Anyhow, let’s see his minuscule plan (below the fold)

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Billions Will Have To Move Due To ‘Climate Change’ Or Something

By William Teach May 5, 2020 – 8:54 am

This is all your fault, for getting a burger to go in your fossil fueled vehicle

Global warming to push billions outside climate range that has sustained society for millennia

Just like insects, birds and animals, humans have a particular climate niche, with 6,000 years of human history demonstrating how society thrives when we stay within it, and the turbulence that ensues when it is pushed out of this zone.

In a stark new finding about the planet’s rapidly warming climate, a new study finds that for every 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) of global average warming, 1 billion people will have to adapt or migrate to stay within climate conditions that are best suited for crop production, livestock and a sustainable outdoor work environment.

What is rapid? A minimal 1.5F increase since 1850? Where we’ve had even more warming during previous Holocene warm periods within that same 6,000 years?

The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on Monday, breaks new ground by quantifying the temperature range society is most adapted to and projecting how climate change will push people outside it.

“What we have looked for is humanity’s sensitivity to warming, and that is about 1 billion people in trouble per degree [Celsius] of warming,” said study co-author and Dutch research ecologist Marten Scheffer of the Santa Fe Institute and Wageningen University.

Scheffer and his colleagues examined the history of global temperature, human population and land-use estimates from the mid-Holocene period, starting about 6,000 years ago, to 2015.

They found that people, crops and livestock have heavily concentrated in a narrow band of relatively constrained climate conditions. This range, referred to in the study as the human “climate niche,” has remained largely unchanged since 6,000 years ago.

Um, we have people living from polar regions to deserts.

Projecting into the future using a scenario with high emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, the researchers found that position of the human climate niche is projected to change more in the next 50 years than it has during the past 6,000. Such a shift would leave 1 to 3 billion people outside the climate conditions that have nurtured human society to date.

This is just meant to scare people into joining the Cult of Climastrology and giving up their money and freedom to Government. The usual.

“It is likely climatic changes will in effect move large cities and whole countries into temperature niches that present inhabitants would find unimaginable,” he said in an email.

“So will cities move? Unlikely. But will they become less attractive destinations for people to move to? Definitely. And ultimately some present cities will stop growing and ossify,” he said.

Why do some people live in cool cities, and others live in hot? There’s a big difference between NYC and Miami, right? The Washington Post article above attempts to slightly reduce the fear-mongering. The USA Today one doesn’t even try

If global warming continues unchecked, the heat that’s coming later this century in some parts of the world will bring “nearly unlivable” conditions for up to 3 billion people, a study released Monday said.

And when this doesn’t happen, will anyone be called out? Are there any consequences, any penalties for running this apocalyptic, prognosticating studies and articles on the studies?

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NY Times Recommends Contact Tracing To Help Stop Bat Soup Virus

By William Teach May 5, 2020 – 8:41 am

Here’s the thing: when it comes to certain diseases and viruses, the government will track transmission. Things like syphilis, AIDS, gonorrhea, if someone has Ebolo or the bubonic plague, along with many others, Los Federales will look to see who they had contact with. If someone is spreading disease around, they lose their privacy rights because they are endangering other people. But, what about the government simply tracking all your movements? This is by Dr. Tom Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Dr. Kelly Henning, who is director of public health at Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Why Contact Tracing Is an Essential Part of the Coronavirus Fight

We’ve been dealt a bad hand with the coronavirus pandemic. Until we have a vaccine or effective treatment, we have limited tools to fight it. Closing large segments of our society and having people shelter at home is a blunt tool that works, but it inflicts severe hardship on individuals and the economy.

We have a sharper tool, the four-cornered Box It In strategy, to stop chains of transmission by widespread testing, isolation of cases, contact tracing and quarantine of contacts. It works, but it doesn’t work perfectly. Some say it’s hopeless to even try contact tracing on this scale. But contact tracing can work — if we do it right. Some states, like New York, Massachusetts and California, are moving quickly to expand these services.

For many places right now, that’s correct. The numbers are overwhelming. But sheltering in place is working. We project that in New York City, perhaps the hardest-hit area of the world and still documenting more than a thousand new infections per day, the number of new cases will continue to decrease — if we continue to apply the blunt instrument and stay at home — to the low hundreds per day. Combined with an urgent and extensive scale-up of contact tracing capacity, we may be able to manage that number. For areas of the country and the world that haven’t yet experienced explosive spread, extensive contact tracing can help limit the need for widespread sheltering in place.

Wait a minute: if everyone is hunkered down by Government decree, why are there new cases? If people are washing their hands and practicing social distancing, why would they contract it? Something just doesn’t add up on the transmission of Bat Soup Virus.

Contact tracing won’t stop all spread of the coronavirus. But just because you can’t fix an entire problem doesn’t mean you shouldn’t fix some of it. Every time contact tracing results in an infected person’s being isolated or a contact’s being quarantined when that person develops infection, a web of transmission is broken. The best evidence is that most people with the coronavirus don’t spread the infection at all, but a few spread it widely in superspreading events. These events are most devastating when they occur in congregate facilities that house medically vulnerable people — in particular, nursing homes, homeless shelters and correctional facilities. Contact tracing can quickly sound the alarm so that outbreaks can be either prevented or stopped early, limiting disease spread both within and outside these places.

Wait, most people do not spread it at all? Isn’t that a rather important bit of information to know? First I’ve heard of it.

Newer technologies may help increase the efficiency and effectiveness, but person-to-person interaction will always be required. For example, technologies that help contact tracers communicate with patients and contacts and allow contacts to report their status and seek assistance can make the process more efficient. In contrast, ambitious efforts to detect contacts automatically by tracking Bluetooth connections are unproven, raise important privacy concerns and will be limited by the proportion of people participating, although they could potentially be important to contact tracing in the future.

It’s nice that they don’t want people tracked by Bluetooth, but, that’s not how the government is trying to track people: it’s by the location of their phone to the cell tower. And with doctors recommending all this contact tracing, this will involve massive amounts of government intervention, and they will go to the easiest, tracing where your phone was. Turning your GPS doesn’t help. And once they start doing this, when do they stop? They’ve already set the stage that we could see another big outbreak come Fall. So, they’ll keep the program going. And they will use it for more and more things, all in the name of “public safety.” Enjoying your test drive of Modern Socialism?

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Bat Soup Virus Riddle: Why Does It Crush Some Places And Not Others?

By William Teach May 4, 2020 – 3:00 pm

An actual good, introspective, non-political story by the NY Times

The COVID-19 Riddle: Why Does the Virus Wallop Some Places and Spare Others?

The coronavirus has killed so many people in Iran that the country has resorted to mass burials, but in neighboring Iraq, the body count is fewer than 100.

The Dominican Republic has reported nearly 7,600 cases of the virus. Just across the border, Haiti has recorded about 85.

In Indonesia, thousands are believed to have died of the coronavirus. In nearby Malaysia, a strict lockdown has kept fatalities to about 100.

The coronavirus has touched almost every country on earth, but its impact has seemed capricious. Global metropolises like New York, Paris and London have been devastated, while teeming cities like Bangkok, Baghdad, New Delhi and Lagos have, so far, largely been spared.

The question of why the virus has overwhelmed some places and left others relatively untouched is a puzzle that has spawned numerous theories and speculations but no definitive answers. That knowledge could have profound implications for how countries respond to the virus, for determining who is at risk and for knowing when it’s safe to go out again.

There are already hundreds of studies underway around the world looking into how demographics, preexisting conditions and genetics might affect the wide variation in impact.

The one thing we do know is that most who die had pre-existing conditions and tend to be over 55. Anyhow, some countries that are hot are sorta OK. Others are not.

Draconian social distancing and early lockdown measures have clearly been effective, but Myanmar and Cambodia did neither and have reported few cases.

Sweden has mostly done OK, too. So, what’s the answer? It’s a long article and worth the read (you can also read it on Yahoo). A couple interesting things they do not real delve into, first being that it seems to target the old and infirm specifically. People with conditions. But not the young. Which is very strange for any virus. It’s almost, dare I say, like it was tailored. The Chinese would never want to kill off their old and infirm who could not be productive, right?

A second interesting thing is how rarely we hear about those with BSV getting very sick. Consider all those spring breakers: we heard about them getting it, but, not if they were really sick. Just saying how many people have it is meaningless without knowing how bad their symptoms are. Kinda like the difference, for me, of sneezing and getting stuffy, maybe light coughing, from my allergies to dust mites, grass, and oak (OTC allergy pills dry me out), and eating a scallop, which can put me in the hospital.

Read: Bat Soup Virus Riddle: Why Does It Crush Some Places And Not Others? »

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If All You See…

By William Teach May 4, 2020 – 1:00 pm

…is a world turning to desert from carbon pollution, you might just be a Warmist

The blog of the day is Raised On Hoecakes, with a post on a teacher losing her mind over kids playing football in a park.

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Bummer: Working From Home Might Not Be Better For The Planet

By William Teach May 4, 2020 – 10:30 am

First they wanted us working from home, happy that we would all be using a lot less in the way of fossil fuels. Of course, that’s not good enough for the Cult of Climastrology

Working from home may not be better for the planet, study says

Working from home may not be better for the environment in the long-term as it could be offset by emissions in the home and additional car journeys, according to a study from the University of Sussex.

Road transport has halved worldwide during the lockdown as commuters are forced to stay home, contributing to what will likely be the biggest drop in carbon emissions in history.

Working from home has been touted as one of the most likely long-term impacts of the pandemic, as both employers and employees adjust to more flexible behaviours.

But maintaining a work-from-home lifestyle after the lockdown has lifted is likely to lead to emissions being offset elsewhere, the study by the university’s Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions has concluded.

Damned if you do, damned if you don’t with these Cultists.

People are also likely to use their newly disposable time and income taking more journeys and buying more goods that have associated carbon emissions.

Damned people trying to live your lives instead of hunkering down and enjoying this test drive of Modern Socialism

Furthermore, much of the energy savings from the office are simply transferred to increased electricity and heating at home.

Damned people living a modern life with energy and stuff

“If people are going to spend their saved money on something else, there needs to be government policy in place to make sure the industries that are providing these goods and services aren’t doing so in a way that offsets environmental benefits.”

Damned people daring to spend the earnings from the fruits of their labor on stuff, so, Government has to control this.

Read: Bummer: Working From Home Might Not Be Better For The Planet »

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We Can Flatten The Climate Curve Using Social Learning Or Something

By William Teach May 4, 2020 – 7:51 am

Oh, look, the Cult of Climastrology has now hijacked the verbiage of Bat Soup Virus. It’s not surprising, as they hijack everything

Flattening the climate curve using social learning

My first reaction to the comparison between the climate crisis and the pandemic: We cannot shelter in place for climate. Yet, symptoms are known. The physical repercussions of climate risk are very visible. So is the science. Regretfully, no vaccines nor tests would help in reversing climate change.

Restarting the communication clock on the urgency of climate action is an essential component of getting us to rein in the consequences. We have ample evidence — almost daily — of effective communications in times of crisis: the ones that work (for example, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s daily updates to New York state residents or Arne Sorenson’s COVID-19 message to Marriott’s associates) and those that will last even longer in people’s minds but for the opposite reason.

Communicating the facts continues to affect action more than the point of views of so called “influencers.”

Yet, they do not communicate actual facts that prove that the actions of mankind are mostly/solely responsible for the slight increase in global temperatures.

Rather, I choose to trust in “social learning” — borrowing from a neuroscience publication of mine in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Empirically, in periods of time when groups are called to make decisions in a state of ambiguity and extensive “known unknowns,” decisions are more likely to be skewed to the near-term comfort zone and going for “good enough” solutions. Suboptimal, in both short and long term, as group decisions end up supporting individual decision makers. (Hint: This already could be happening as we see diverging scenarios in the debate regarding the post-COVID return to business as usual.)

How far can we go in terms of mobilizing resources (people and capital) if we restart the clock on effectively communicating climate change priorities? I think the real lesson of COVID-19 is that society can respond forcefully and collectively when enough of us are well-informed of what needs to be done, and the government supports individual action with laws, ordinances and other policy actions.

It’s not really this difficult. If you put actual facts out there, most people will follow them. If you have to employ psychological tricks, that shows this is a scam propagated by a cult. One which also refuses to practice what they preach.

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WRAL Snitches On “Heavy Crowd” Chilling At The Beach

By William Teach May 4, 2020 – 7:30 am

I’m not sure which beach they go to normally, because this is not what I call a heavy crowd

Drone video shows heavy crowds at Ocean Isle Beach on Sunday

Ocean Isle Beach loosened its restrictions to access on Thursday. Public parking has opened and short-term rental restrictions were lifted, but the beach still requires social distancing of six feet. (Video courtesy of Ethan Clark)

What I see is a bunch of people sitting at the beach spread out like people normally do. We have plenty of space at our beaches. They are doing what is today called “social distancing.” I hate to assign negative motives to this, but, we’ve seen what the media has been doing, and the headline is the clue. Perhaps the person who took the video was just taking video, being excited that people are coming back.

Meanwhile

Chicago mayor threatens anyone who disobeys lockdown: ‘We will shut you down, we will take you to jail’

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot threatened to issue citations and even arrest anyone who violated stay-at-home orders. Lightfoot issued a strong warning to her constituents who don’t comply with the lockdown orders during a COVID-19 press conference on Saturday.

“We will shut you down, we will cite you, and if we need to, we will arrest you and we will take you to jail,” Lightfoot said. “Don’t make us treat you like a criminal, but if you act like a criminal and you violate the law and you refuse to do what is necessary to save lives in this city in the middle of a pandemic we will take you to jail, period.” (snip)

After her news briefing, Lightfoot and police officers patrolled the streets and ordered a group of young kids to go home. One young man responded: “Y’all need to find a cure. You talk about going home. You go home.”

If being home is so darned important, why is she out and about? Perhaps she can get another haircut. And the city has released lots of criminals from jail. And won’t keep illegal aliens in jail.

https://twitter.com/MaybeAmes/status/1256422097489997824

Read: WRAL Snitches On “Heavy Crowd” Chilling At The Beach »

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