Pirate's Cove

And here we go with yet another crazy climate cult term. Will this be part of duckspeak?

Prepare for a ‘Gray Swan’ Climate

…

Instead, the way to think about climate change now is through two interlinked concepts. The first is nonlinearity, the idea that change will happen by factors of multiplication, rather than addition. The second is the idea of “gray swan” events, which are both predictable and unprecedented. Together, these two ideas explain how we will face a rush of extremes, all scientifically imaginable but utterly new to human experience. (snip)

Among these new extremes will be gray-swan events. These are not like black-swan events, which Shaw described as completely “unpredictable or unforeseeable.” Instead, scientists will start to observe things that they can foresee based on physics, but that haven’t appeared in the historical record before. “As we reflect, as climate scientists, on events that we see emerging, there are these record-shattering, extreme events,” she said. “Events like that truly push the boundaries of what our models are capable of.”

The 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave was one example. Though weather models did predict a heat wave, forecasts did not accurately foresee how extreme the high temperatures would get. It was an unprecedented situation; typically, when temperature records are broken, they are by a fraction of a degree. This time, temperatures soared more than five degrees Celsius higher than the all-time maximum temperatures in several places. The region—which had some of the lowest rates of air-conditioning in the country at the time—was woefully underprepared. Streets buckled. Cable lines melted. Hundreds of people died while people in prisons were trapped in sweltering cells. The area had never seen anything like it.

Later, analyses found that climate models could predict something like the Pacific Northwest heat wave, but that they would be labeled as extremely rare—one in 100,000 years. It’s physically possible, but we hadn’t ever seen it.

Well, it’s easy to fit what happened into their models after the event has happened, eh? So far, though, virtually nothing the climate cult has predicted has come true. I mean, I can predict that the NJ Devils are going to win the Stanley Cup at some point in the next 30 years (they damned well better, and the sooner the better). In my analyses, I’ve determined that the Devils have won 3 Cups and played in 5 since 1995. Of course, that actually happened. The cult scientists, well, more like computer modelers, simply decided to fit what happened in the Pacific NW into their cult dogma.

“That’s ultimately the thing that we are concerned about; when you start to see very extreme behavior in places that haven’t seen it before, this can compound vulnerabilities,” Shaw said. In places without the infrastructure to handle it, any given disaster will be that much more deadly and damaging. And gray-swan events are likely to become part of our climatic landscape. “Unfortunately, we are seeing the signal emerge.”

Yeah, that sounds like Duckspeak, and doom-mongering. These wackos expect the weather to be the same all the time and utterly predictable. Who’s crazier: these folks or flat earthers?