Surprise: Lockdowns Had Little Effect On Stemming COVID In Germany

I wonder if anyone will bother doing studies in US states with the strictest lockdowns, to see if the there are similar results

Lockdown ‘had no effect’ on coronavirus pandemic in Germany

A new study by German scientists claims to have found evidence that lockdowns may have had little effect on controlling the coronavirus pandemic.

Statisticians at Munich University found “no direct connection” between the German lockdown and falling infection rates in the country.

Instead, the study found infection rates had already clearly begun to fall before a national lockdown was imposed last November.

It also found clear evidence the rate was already falling on the two occasions the lockdown was tightened, in December and April.

The study focused on the R number, which indicates how many people each infected person passes the virus to. The scientists argue it is less easily distorted by fluctuating test rates than the weekly infection rates used by the German government to decide lockdown restrictions.

The study found that on each occasion the R number was already under 1 before the new restrictions came into force, indicating that infections were falling. The lockdown has since been lifted across most of the country.

Perhaps the initial early 2020 lockdown made a difference: the study doesn’t seem to touch on that. But, the others were really not necessary.

The study was quickly seized on by lockdown opponents, but its authors were at pains to stress they were not making a political argument.

“You can’t tell from the data that the lockdown was unnecessary,” Prof Ralph Brinks, one of the study’s co-authors, told German television.

“All that it shows is that the start of lockdown and the fall in infections do not coincide.” Germany went into “lockdown lite”, with restaurants and bars closed but non-essential shops open, on November 2.

Interesting to see scientists saying they were not trying to be political, that the science speaks for itself. Rather rare these days. How much effect did the initial lockdown have in Germany? How about in the U.S. and other nations? Most people might have been stuck at home, but, they were still going to the grocery store and other essential places. Remember, we were told it would be 15 days. Why were so many who were at home getting it?

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9 Responses to “Surprise: Lockdowns Had Little Effect On Stemming COVID In Germany”

  1. Est1950 says:

    Look north my friends. Canada has turned into Nazi Germany. Not only is left, right and center politicians fully onboard with the stringent lock downs but the MSM there are acting as cheerleaders and Goebbels cheerleaders.

    There are 10 local governments, much like states in the USA each of these provinces are fully on board with a 4 week lock down that has turned into four months. The people are mostly, not all, but mostly on board with this because Canada is paying them to stay home and preventing them from losing their businesses.

    People are being thrown in jail for literally holding up signs. Signs are NOT permitted in Canada when protesting, rallying or demonstrating. There is no free speech and if any nation that currently calls themselves a democracy can fall headlong into communist nirvana it is certainly Canada.

    They are currently attempting to pass a law in Canada as I write which tells Social Media and especially YouTube to CENSOR Canadians. Seriously. The government wants to rid themselves of any opposition by asking big TECH for help as well as….

    Are you ready?

    It will be a crime to make fun of or CRITICIZE any Canadian Politician on social media. Canada incidently is leading the Great Reset Charge of 2020-2021.

    Nov 20, 2020 · In Canada, Justin Trudeau has publicly tied the country’s COVID-19 recovery to The Great Reset as well as the 2030 objectives of the U.N. Twice in the last two months Canada’s PM has announced this direction for the country. In a video conference to a U.N. audience in September, Trudeau stated: “This pandemic has provided an opportunity for a reset.

  2. Dana says:

    Fifteen days became fifteen months!

    Did the illegal and unconstitutional restrictions on our constitutional rights reduce the scope of the virus? We don’t know; there is no alternate quantum universe into which we can peer showing us what would have happened had the (mostly) Democrats not imposed these draconian restrictions, but we do know one thing: our rights suffered.

    He wasn’t writing about the virus, but he might as well have been:

    “Fear is crucial for state authority. When the population is filled with it, they will acquiesce to virtually any power the government seeks to acquire in the name of keeping them safe. But when fear is lacking, citizens will crave liberty more than control, and that is when they question official claims and actions. When that starts to happen, when the public feels too secure, institutions of authority will reflexively find new ways to ensure they stay engulfed by fear and thus quiescent.” — Glenn Greenwald, “The New Domestic War on Terror Has Already Begun — Even Without the New Laws Biden Wants”.

  3. Zachriel says:

    Lockdown ‘had no effect’ on coronavirus pandemic in Germany

    “The measures taken could have had a positive effect on the course of the infection, but are not solely responsible for the decline,”

    The headline contradicts the text of the article.

    What the study shows is that government action lagged the social response. As infections increase, people naturally social distance. Government then institutes controls, which may further decrease the rate of infection. It would be better if government led the surge of infections, which could help attenuate the surge.

  4. Hairy says:

    We do know that countries like virtnam that had a strong response ended with less than 100 deaths
    And also did not have to close their economy
    Shoukd we have done like them? Thru never said it was fake news but took it seriously from the beginning

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