Doom: Somewhere Between 0-54% Of Species In Danger From “Climate Change”

Of course, most of the articles written will not actually tell you the numbers. They’re all going with

One in six of world’s species faces extinction due to climate change – study

One in six of the planet’s species will be lost forever to extinction if world leaders fail to take action on climate change, according to a new analysis.

The stark warning on the scale of global warming’s impact on animals and plants comes just months before nearly 200 governments meet for UN climate talks in Paris in an attempt to forge a global deal on cutting carbon emissions.

Obviously, the Answer is more big and centralized Government, as we see in the above UK Guardian article, and this is all based on a computer model synthesizing previous studies. It’s all the same breathless “OMG, the world will burn and DOOM idmf we don’t Do Something”. Strangely, none include this information from the full text of the study published in Science

We critically need to know how climate change will influence species extinction rates in order to inform international policy decisions about the biological costs of failing to curb climate change and to implement specific conservation strategies to protect the most threatened species. Current predictions about extinction risks vary widely, suggesting that anywhere from 0 to 54% of species could become extinct from climate change (1–4). Studies differ in particular assumptions, methods, species, and regions and thus do not encompass the full range of our current understanding. As a result, we currently lack consistent, global estimates of species extinctions attributable to future climate change.

And, putting it all together, they say

Overall, 7.9% of species are predicted to become extinct from climate change…

Huh. It’s been a long time since I had math class, but, shouldn’t that make it 16 2/3rds, to be 1 in 6?

The Guardian article also mentions, almost as an afterthought

The stresses on wildlife and their habitats from global warming is in addition to pressures such as deforestation, pollution and overfishing that have already seen the world lose half its animals in the past 40 years.

First, the world has not lost half its animals in the last 40 years. Second, and more important, those environmental dangers other than AGW are real, and pressing. While great strides have been made in protecting the environment, others have cropped up, and this cult like devotion to “climate change” is relegating those real world concerns to the back burner.

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4 Responses to “Doom: Somewhere Between 0-54% Of Species In Danger From “Climate Change””

  1. Jeffery says:

    You did the right thing to check the Science article itself! Kudos.

    Yes, global warming will cause some extinctions.

    Here’s the meat of the study that explains the 1 in 6 statement:

    The factor that best explained variation in extinction risk was the level of future climate change. The future global extinction risk from climate change is predicted not only to increase but to accelerate as global temperatures rise… Global extinction risks increase from 2.8% at present to 5.2% at the international policy target of a 2°C post-industrial rise, which most experts believe is no longer achievable. If the Earth warms to 3°C, the extinction risk rises to 8.5%. If we follow our current, business-as-usual trajectory [… 4.3°C rise], climate change threatens one in six species (16%).

    Baseline extinction 2.8%; 2C extinction 5.2%; 3C extinction 8.5%; 4.3C 16% (or 1 in 6).

    Will global warming and ocean pH changes cause some extinctions. Sure. How many? It’s a guesstimate at best. And of course extinctions are a crude measure. Our species will not be eliminated by global warming but that doesn’t mean that humans and our civilization will not be seriously impacted.

  2. jl says:

    Of course if global warming and ocean pH changes can cause extinctions, it’ll be nothing new as there have been GW and pH changes for 4 billion years. Those numbers above are just assertions and no way to know if they’re credible or not. But what about this- “global extinction rate increases from 2.8% at present to 5.2% with a 2C rise.” Does that mean the extinction rate is 2.8% with nothing happening? If so, then you’d have to subtract 2.8 from the 5.2. 8.3, and 16 numbers to get the correct amount of change. If that’s not what it means, you’d still have to subtract whatever the present extinction rate is now from their “predicted numbers”, as obviously there’s extinction going on whether there’s global warming or not.

  3. Jeffery says:

    Does that mean the extinction rate is 2.8% with nothing happening?

    Nothing happening? The Earth is warming and continues to warm. This fact explains the current risk of extinction. Recalls it has warmed almost 1C over the past century. As it continues to warm the extinction risk will increase.

    Of course if global warming and ocean pH changes can cause extinctions, it’ll be nothing new as there have been GW and pH changes for 4 billion years.

    Yet, extinctions have occurred in waves, not steadily. What is new is that this bout of global warming and pH change is because of human activity and is occurring rapidly, not over hundreds of thousands of years.

  4. Jeffery says:

    Even if we burned all the remaining fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal) the Earth would only warm an additional 15 degrees F. The Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets would melt raising the sea level not even 200 feet. Big deal.

    Over the next many several thousand years, the CO2 levels would eventually drop slowly and major parts of the Earth would be habitable again. Pockets of humans will survive and be able to eventually repopulate the Earth.

    So, no worries. Our species will survive!

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