The longer this continues the worse it will be
Wave of COVID-19 bankruptcies poses next threat to US economy
Larger companies have generally survived the initial blow from the coronavirus crisis, but still face existential challenges to get through what will probably be a long and grinding recovery.
Since COVID-19 shuttered much of the global economy, airlines, major retail chains, oil companies and other hard-hit businesses have been able to tap bank facilities and public debt markets for the funds they need to keep paying the bills and stay afloat.
But many firms now bleeding cash are in for a tough ride until the economy fully rebounds, which likely will come only after a vaccine is developed and broadly employed.
That has raised worries about a much bigger wave of bankruptcies beyond the handful of retailers that have sought to restructure through the US process known as “Chapter 11.”
The US Congress moved with remarkable speed to approve rescue measures for small businesses, large industries and workers, amounting to nearly $3 trillion.
But that infusion simply “bought time… it postponed” bankruptcies, David Kotok, cofounder of Cumberland Advisors, said of the massive federal push to support the economy.
Kotok — who thinks it will take around five years for the US economy to fully recover — expects casualties in other sectors, including travel, leisure, real estate, energy and “more that haven’t surfaced yet,” he told AFP this week.
Federal Reserve Chief Jay Powell warned Wednesday of a potential “wave of bankruptcies” that could cause lasting harm to the world’s largest economy, and said more fiscal support may be needed to prevent the devastation, despite the massive cost.
Big companies, small companies, you name them, they are in deep trouble. Look, I understand the concern and even panic that COVID-19 caused among citizens and government (employees, appointees, and elected officials): we were seeing a massive dropoff in customers in early February, which only got worse, before government even could consider measures. People were worried. There were enough people who wanted MASSIVE government responses, which many government officials were more than happy to supply. Things were moving too fast, too many voices all over the place, and too many voices of doom. Hey, it’s easy to Monday morning QB. Cooler heads needed to prevail, but, easier said than done. So what happens now? Too many businesses will not survive.
You’ll see reduced employment at companies, who do not need as many employees. There could be an increase in low wage employment for restocking, cleaning, shipping, and such. Those who took voluntary furlough might be permanently laid off or offer positions elsewhere, both in job or location. And if schools do not come back, what are parents to do? Especially if child care centers remain closed and/or go out of business?
Restaurants will need a miracle to survive this
Restaurants, especially independent ones, have been decimated by the pandemic. Without access to the same financing options as large corporate chains, restaurant owners like me have to figure out whether and how to stay open — or just quit the business altogether. (snip)
Though we restaurateurs have faith in our creativity and resilience, the prognosis is dire. Some 1,400 of us responded to a recent survey by the Beard Foundation and the Independent Restaurant Coalition. It predicted that months of closings, mounting debt and diminished capacity will kill perhaps 80% of America’s independent restaurants.
Two-thirds of America’s restaurants are independent small businesses. They employ 11 million of the 15 million workers in this sector. Millions of them are now unemployed and facing permanent job loss.
Who survives?
Read: What’s Next For Bat Soup Virus? A Massive Wave Of Bankruptcy Filings »