I’m sure they’ll find a way to cover for Biden, right?
Even Most Biden Voters Don’t See a Thriving Economy
Presidents seeking a second term have often found the public’s perception of the economy a pivotal issue. It was a boon to Ronald Reagan; it helped usher Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush out of the White House.
Now, as President Joe Biden looks toward a reelection campaign, there are warning signals on that front: With overall consumer sentiment at a low ebb despite solid economic data, even Democrats who supported Biden in 2020 say they’re not impressed with the economy.
In a recent New York Times/Siena College poll of voters in six battleground states, 62% of those voters think the economy is only “fair” or “poor” (compared with 97% for those who voted for Donald Trump).
The demographics of Biden’s 2020 supporters may explain part of his challenge now: They were on balance younger, had lower incomes and were more racially diverse than Trump’s. Those groups tend to be hit hardest by inflation, which has yet to return to 2020 levels, and high interest rates, which have frustrated first-time homebuyers and drained the finances of those dependent on credit.
So, the people doing OK in the Bideconomy are rich? Huh. The economy, as defined by the stock market, GDP, steadily falling inflation numbers, and unemployment is doing great. Those figures do not translate into what the avg citizen feels what they pay out for weekly necessities as wages, prices etc. always lag behind these statistical economic indicators. Combine that with all world turmoil with regional wars, the disinformation being shoveled out in an upcoming election year and that is the reality on the ground vs. upbeat statistics.
But if the election were held today, and the options were Biden and Trump, it’s not clear whether voter perceptions of the economy would tip the balance.
“The last midterm was an abortion election,” said Joshua Doss, an analyst at the public opinion research firm HIT Strategies, referring to the 2022 voting that followed the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the Roe v. Wade ruling. “Most of the time elections are about ‘it’s the economy, stupid.’ Republicans lost that because of Roe. So we’re definitely in uncharted territory.”
And therein lies the question: will the damaging economy matter in 2024? Trump is just too polarizing, and, if he does the same old schtick it could turn off enough people that he fails to win enough of the states he needs to win, even against a horrible president like Biden.
Nuñez isn’t alone in feeling dissatisfied with the economy but still bound to Biden by other priorities. Of those surveyed in the six battleground states who plan to vote for Biden in 2024, 47% say social issues are more important to them, while 42% say the economy is more important — but that’s a closer split than in the 2022 midterms, in which social issues decisively outweighed economic concerns among Democratic voters in several swing states. (Among likely Trump voters, 71% say they are most focused on the economy, while 15% favor social issues.)
How much of a difference will having all those illegals in NYC, Chicago, Boston, etc. make? Democrat voters see the problems created by Democrat policies. But, they keep coming out in droves to vote the same way. The NY Post blasted AOC for noting that New Yorkers are blowing out of the city because they cannot afford it, due to the very policies Democrats like her enact.
It’s difficult for presidents to directly control inflation in the short term. But the White House has addressed a few specific costs that matter for families, for example, by releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to contain surging oil prices in late 2022. The Inflation Reduction Act reduced prescription drug prices under Medicare and capped the cost of insulin for people with diabetes. The administration is also going after what it calls “junk fees,” which inflate the prices of things such as concert tickets, airline tickets and even birthday parties.
It’s only difficult when Democrats are in office. When Republicans have the White House they get blasted by the NY Times. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was a gimmick that did not help in the long term, and has left it dangerously low. It only capped a dozen drugs, with the prices having nothing to do with inflation. Junk fees? That would do what, exactly? Things are not good. But, will Trump, if he’s the GOP candidate, do the things necessary to blow up the Biden/media narrative, or be the same old bull in a China shop, going after people personally and forgetting to talk policy?
Read: NY Times Notes Most Democrats Do Not Think Much Of The Bidenconomy »