Latest Great Pause Excuse: Atlantic And Pacific Oscillations

The Cult of Climastrology is desperately attempting to mitigate their failed computer models, talking points, and prognostications. The Hockey Schtick lists 66 excuses so far. There are really so many, does it matter anymore whether we number them?

Global Warming Pause Caused By Interaction Of Atlantic And Pacific Oscillations

The recent slowdown in climate warming is due to natural oscillations in the climate, according to a team of climate scientists, who add that these oscillations represent variability internal to the climate system. They do not signal any slowdown in human-caused global warming.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) describes how North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures tend to oscillate with a periodicity of about 50 to 70 years. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) varies over a broader range of timescales. The researchers looked only at the portion of the PDO that was multidecadal — what they term the Pacific multidecadal oscillation (PMO).

So, warming is mostly/solely Man-caused, the Pause is natural. Strange how that works. Of course

Using a wide variety of climate simulations, the researchers found that the AMO and PMO are not significantly correlated; they are not part of the global “stadium wave” oscillation, as some researchers had claimed. What they found was that the Northern Hemisphere was warming more slowly, not because of the AMO — which has been relatively flat — but because of a sharply down-trending PMO.

Simulations, huh? Of course, they have to work in the dog at my homework oceans ate my warming, one of the original Excuses

The researchers conclude that the down-trending PMO and the unusual slowing of warming over the past decade are tied to heat burial beneath the tropical Pacific and a tendency for sustained La Niña type conditions. While there is paleoclimate data suggesting that this type of response could come from subtle features of climate change itself that climate models do not currently capture, the researchers note that the most likely explanation is the random excursions of the AMO.

Perhaps it’s time for the CoC to admit that they’re full of it, that climate and weather patterns change, and that Man is not mostly/solely responsible. They won’t. They have too much invested politically. Interestingly, Michael Mann is involved, so we know that the data is skewed, and we get

“Our findings have strong implications for the attribution of recent climate changes,” said Mann. “Internal multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere temperatures likely offset anthropogenic warming over the past decade.”

Warming=Man, Pause=nature. But of course.

The researchers conclude that given past historical patterns of variation in the AMO and PMO, this situation will likely reverse and add to human induced warming in the future.

Anything to keep the money train and fear-mongering rolling.

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18 Responses to “Latest Great Pause Excuse: Atlantic And Pacific Oscillations”

  1. Chris Lephart says:

    Quick history review:

    “He has WMDs!” (Wrong)

    2 months after launch of Iraq War: “Mission accomplished!” (Wrong)

    “Obamacare will create Death Panels!” (Wrong)

    “Obamacare will suffer a death spiral bc nobody will sign up and pay!” (Wrong)

    “Obama will destroy the economy!” (Wrong)

    “Obama will blow up the deficit!” (Wrong)

    “Obama is the biggest job-killing president ever!” (Wrong)

    “Obama will take your guns!” (Wrong)

    “Romney will win the election in a landslide!” (Wrong)

    “Tax cuts pay for themselves!” (Wrong)

    “Deficits don’t matter! (Unless a democrat is in office and we created the deficit)

    “CO2 does not trap heat in the atmosphere because…well, we can’t really explain why it doesn’t or wouldnt when it’s a demonstrable scientific truth, but we just believe that it doesn’t!! Don’t challenge our BELIEFS!!” Plus, this is God’s Earth and man could never harm God’s Earth!! What hubris!!!” (Wrong, dangerously wrong and willfully ignorant.

  2. gitarcarver says:

    Wow Chris. So many statements displaying such ignorance.

    “He has WMDs!” (Wrong) Nope. Right

    2 months after launch of Iraq War: “Mission accomplished!” (Wrong) Nope. Right. (Carrier’s mission was accomplished.)

    “Obamacare will create Death Panels!” (Wrong)

    Nope. See “Rationed Care” and the IPAB.

    Obamacare will suffer a death spiral bc nobody will sign up and pay!” (Wrong)

    Nope. Obamacare is suffereing a death spiral which is why penalties were increased and signups became mandatory.

    Obama will destroy the economy!” (Wrong)

    Ummmm…. right. Nothing Obama did helped the economy.

    “Obama will take your guns!” (Wrong)

    Perhaps you missed the ATF’s attempt to ban cartridges? Perhaps you missed Obama’s support of every anti-gun legislation proposed in Congress and at the state levels? You are correct that Obama failed in taking guns, but it wasn’t for lack of trying.

    Tax cuts pay for themselves!” (Wrong)

    Right. Allowing people to keep their own money to spend and invest as they see fit has always benefited the economy.

    Nice try though Chris.

    .

  3. Chris Lephart says:

    Well, I think it’s pretty well accepted that everything the Republicans and conservative media (including much of the mainstream media) predicted about invading Iraq was dead wrong. What was supposed to be a handful of months to complete is still a complete clusterfuck 12 years later. Just a complete disaster.

    Funny thing about the internet-age is that all of those statements can easily be verified. And you don’t need a media source to give it to you. I’ll spare you all of the Youtube clips, but rest assured much of the death panel, Obamacare will destroy the economy, Stimulus failed, Obama will destroy the country complete nonsense is readily available for your eyes to see. And there is a LOT of it. Over and over and over on Foxnews and Limbaugh and the other 4 or 5 media sources that conservatives EXCLUSIVELY trust.

    No death panels, stock market at record highs, 60 straight months of job creation, millions more people have health insurance, rate of insurance premium growth has decreased, deficit has decreased significantly, and not a single gun has been taken.

    Regardless, all of those involve issues (relatively minor compared to climate change) that are subjective and involve people’s opinions, beliefs, values, morals, and worldviews. The central question of whether the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere causes an increase in the absorption of long-wave radiation (aka heat)is clearly not. It’s a scientific truth. No two reasonable people should differ in their views of this basic fact.

    If CO2 absorbs long-wave radiation (“heat”), and the Earth re-emits long-wave radiation after converting the sun’s short-wave radiation, what will happen to the amount of heat trapped in the atmosphere? That’s a question scientists were asking many decades ago, before any of us were born. Decades of research, analysis, and an overwhelming accumulation of evidence from surface temps, ocean temps, rapid ice declines, changes in animal behaviors, changes in plant behaviors, frequency and severity of weather events, and so on, all provide a very clear answer to the basic question scientists asked long ago.

    Some people who don’t want it to be true, for ideological/political motivations, for financial motivations, or just because they are loyal cheerleaders for the Rush Limbaugh/Koch Brothers-led American Red Team, have found its just easier to deny it. So they cherry-pick data and hold up snowballs on the Senate floor to show how completely ignorant they are.

    From a NASA research report (“Is a Sleeping Climate Giant Stirring in the Artic?”: “Artic permafrost soils have accumulated an estimated 1,400 – 1,850 petagrams of organic carbon. (A petagram is 2.2 trillion pounds, or 1 billion metric tons). In comparison, about 350 petagrams of carbon have been emitted from all fossil-fuel combustion and human activities since 1850. Most of this carbon is located within 10 feet of the surface.”

    So the question we all should be asking is: what if the the people who control the right-wing American media are wrong? What if the fossil-fuel industry (the most profitable industry the world has ever known) finances politicians and entrepreneurial scientists to do everything possible to create doubt? Should I really trust that the right-wing media is right when they’ve clearly been so wrong before?

    For my kids and grandkids sake, I trust the world’s scientists and the side of the issue that isn’t motivated to protect the wealthiest industry ever known to mankind.

    It’s kind of a no-brainer if you think about it.

  4. Chris Lephart says:

    If it isn’t clear, the NASA report explains that the only thing keeping the 1,400-1,850 petagrams of carbon from entering the atmosphere is a layer of ice roughly the depth of basketball goal. And you know, the damn ice is disappearing. Wonder if that should be a concern to people with kids, or grandkids, or anyone with the slightest concern for the human species who is capable of looking past the end of their nose?

  5. david7134 says:

    chris,
    Wow, you really have been bitted by the dumb bug. Everything, I mean everything, that you think is right is actually wrong. Guitar did not finish on the economy. You see, we are in a depression. Can you get that? The stock market is only supported by the Fed, interest rates and massive government infusions and will crash like a dog when any of these lighten up. Obama is actively destroying the country and people like you sit there and say, everything is ok, I don’t see anything. The greatest threat to our children is our government, not CO2.

    Now, as to the blather that you and Jeff go on about regarding wavelength emissions. You don’t even understand that model, it is quantum mechanics 101. It is called a black box. You can calculate what will occur with a black box. My grill does the same thing at a given temp. But it requires a certain concentration of metal atoms. The CO2 is not anywhere near the concentrations. Learn some science.

  6. gitarcarver says:

    Well, I think it’s pretty well accepted that everything the Republicans and conservative media (including much of the mainstream media) predicted about invading Iraq was dead wrong.

    It is also pretty well accepted that Orson Wells Halloween broadcast of H.G.Wells “War of the Worlds” caused wide spread panic. That is no more correct than your assertions.

    What was supposed to be a handful of months to complete is still a complete clusterfuck 12 years later.

  7. gitarcarver says:

    Well, I think it’s pretty well accepted that everything the Republicans and conservative media (including much of the mainstream media) predicted about invading Iraq was dead wrong.

    It is also pretty well accepted that Orson Wells Halloween broadcast of H.G.Wells “War of the Worlds” caused wide spread panic. That is no more correct than your assertions.

    What was supposed to be a handful of months to complete is still a complete clusterfuck 12 years later.

    Major military operations were supposed to take a handful of months and for the most part, they did. What was unpredicated was the inability of the Iraqi people to fend for themselves and put their lives on the line for the concept of liberty and freedoms that we accept here in the US. However, it should be noted that what you say is a “clusterfuck” is the direct result of a lack of focus and vision not from conservatives and Bush (and one again we see BDS in action from you) but from the Obama administration.

    Funny thing about the internet-age is that all of those statements can easily be verified. And you don’t need a media source to give it to you. I’ll spare you all of the Youtube clips, but rest assured much of the death panel, Obamacare will destroy the economy, Stimulus failed, Obama will destroy the country complete nonsense is readily available for your eyes to see.

    Yes they can be verified. It is a shame that you won’t take the time to do so.

    No death panels, stock market at record highs, 60 straight months of job creation, millions more people have health insurance, rate of insurance premium growth has decreased, deficit has decreased significantly, and not a single gun has been taken.

    Not a single gun? Really?

    BTW Chris, I am assuming you are either ignorant or willfully ignoring the change in policy at VA hospitals where vets who report not sleeping or some ailment now face having their weapons confiscated.

    And while “millions more have health insurance,” millions are out of the loop due to individual costs. Insurance companies are raising rates to cover loses that are the result of mandates from ObamaCare. Most people that were paying for their own insurance or part of a employee plan are now paying more for less coverage with higher deductibles. By the way, I guess you didn’t do any research into “rationed care” or the IPAB.

    It is clear you have bought into an alternate universe that doesn’t have a basis in reality..

    Oh good grief another liberal who keeps repeating disproven talking points as if repeating things make them true.

  8. john says:

    GC you forgot to add
    THE SURGE WORKED !!!
    and
    THERE IS NO CIVIL WAR IN IRAQ
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/us/politics/most-americans-support-government-action-on-climate-change-poll-finds.html?_r=0
    Even most Republicans believe in climate change
    The US Navy the Pope the Head Bishop of the Episcopalian Church every major scientific association every country
    it must be getting a bit lonely and a bit sad to have to keep pointing to “lord” Monckton’s joke
    Even the grandfather of climate trutherism Spencer now says that 50% of climate change is man made
    And it looks like 2015 will be another all time hotness record, strange that your “lord”‘s calculations don’t show last year’s record heat as being anything except average meh

  9. john says:

    http://cleantechnica.com/2015/02/18/us-navy-reacts-blockbuster-rolling-stone-climate-change-story/
    The US Navy straight called out the GOP Congress guess they aren’t too worried about speaking the truth and getting their funding cut
    “Lest you think this is just a link, the Navy’s climate change post starts off with a forceful declaration of support for the Rolling Stone article, it includes the subtitle “The leaders of our armed forces know what’s coming next – but deniers in Congress are ignoring the warnings,”
    that is straight from the US Navy
    Deniers and truthers are putting our national security at risk
    Stop it !!!

  10. gitarcarver says:

    Hey john…..

    Did you ever figure out where Selma, Alabama is?

    Did it drop off your map, apps and GPS somehow?

  11. Chris Lephart says:

    The Iraq War has cost trillions of dollars, thousands of lives, and in no way made us safer. It led to a significant increase in anti-American sentiment and is used as a recruiting tool for terrorist groups. Don’t defend it.

    “We’re in a depression.” Huh? Sure, economy is still weak, has been boosted by the Fed, and still has a ways to go. But that is what should have been expected with a global financial crisis that caused a massive private sector de-leveraging and a sharp decline in aggregate demand. But to suggest that the economy is worse now than when Obama took office is pure nonsense. If you admit it’s better now, than you have to admit Obama didn’t destroy the economy, which was my point. I work for brokerage firm and saw first hand how many people sold everything and sat on cash and commodities because they sat around watching Foxnews all day and were scared to death. And there was no reasoning with them. I’m sure they regret getting fed all that bullshit about Obama and the economy.

    Unfortunately, all the bs about climate change doesn’t just harm those who trust their lives with the information Fox and friends spits out. It harms everyone and everyone’s children. And that’s why we’re even having this discussion. My kids depend on the people reading this to wake up. It’s not a political game. It’s not trying to score points for your team. It’s not subjective. It’s science. And it’s really, really important that humans not get this wrong.

  12. Jeffery says:

    Hey gc,

    Did you ever figure out the mandate of the USDA?

  13. jl says:

    Chris- Mark Twain somehow must have had you in mind when he stated “it’s easier to fool a man than to convince him he’s been fooled.”

  14. jl says:

    John- Still waiting for your data that shows the polling results of the entire Navy on the global warming question. You say this all the time, so it shouldn’t be hard to do. Good luck

  15. drowningpuppies says:

    Things are not going well in Libtardia lately.

  16. gitarcarver says:

    Did you ever figure out the mandate of the USDA?

    As a matter of fact, I did.

    Turns out I was right and you were wrong.

    What a shock, huh?

    Maybe you can help john find Selma, Alabama since neither of you seem to be able to read or comprehend rather well.

  17. gitarcarver says:

    It’s not trying to score points for your team. It’s not subjective. It’s science. And it’s really, really important that humans not get this wrong.

    thanks for stating the position of the other side of the argument as it is clear that you and other Warmists are not on the side of science or truth.

  18. Jeffery says:

    fluffy,

    Actually turns out you’re a cowardly lyin’ piece of shit.

    But we knew that.

    I would have noticed if you were correct – It’s such a rare event.

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