…is heat induced snow, you might just be a Warmist

The blog of the day is A View From The Beach, with a post on a crazy lady running for Texas governor.
Read: If All You See… »
…is heat induced snow, you might just be a Warmist

The blog of the day is A View From The Beach, with a post on a crazy lady running for Texas governor.
Read: If All You See… »
We’ve been bombarded with stories like
Yeah, about that
(Business Recorder) Arabica coffee prices sank to 6-1/2 year lows and teetered on the brink of $1 per lb on Wednesday as investors continued to bet on lower prices due to expectations of record crops in top-growers in South America, while cocoa eased from the previous day’s spike.
Wait, a record coffee crop? How is that possible? Oh, wait, my bad, I forgot that Warmists predict doom 50-100 years out. Because all their short term predictions fail, so they have to try and scare people based on something that “might” happen.
Read: Remember How “Climate Change” Was Supposed To Destroy Coffee? »
Yet more Americans losing their plans because of Democrats and Obamacare
(Alaska Dispatch) Premera Blue Cross, Alaska’s largest health care provider, said last week that about 5,400 Alaskans on individual plans received cancellation notices in September, because those plans do not meet the requirements under the Affordable Care Act. That’s more than half of the 9,000 Alaskans who have individual health care plans through Premera.
The letters informed Alaskans of the cancellation, and says they’ll be matched up to a new plan that most closely matches their old one, and automatically enrolled in the plan.
Sure, it’s not the same as 150K losing their plans in Oregon, but, then, this is just one provider, and the population of Alaska is smaller. The article then goes on to wonder if the letters are “deceptive”, because they don’t mention healthcare.fail and folks will automatically be enrolled in a much more expensive plan if they do nothing. But, why the cancellations/changes?
The Affordable Care Act changed the requirements for health care plans. All plans in place after the bill was signed into law were dumped, and replaced with plans that have more benefits and restrictions, and often higher costs.
There are “10 essential health benefits†that all insurance coverage must carry, including maternity care, behavioral health treatment, prescription drugs, laboratory tests and preventive services. There are no lifetime coverage caps, so people can receive as much coverage as necessary throughout their lives.
Insurers have no choice.
So far.
Read: Alaskans Losing Their Plans They Like, “But It’s Not Really What You Think” »
So says a new study
(Daily Mail) The 17-year pause in global warming is likely to last into the 2030s and the Arctic sea ice has already started to recover, according to new research.
A paper in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics – by Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology and Dr Marcia Wyatt – amounts to a stunning challenge to climate science orthodoxy.
Not only does it explain the unexpected pause, it suggests that the scientific majority – whose views are represented by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – have underestimated the role of natural cycles and exaggerated that of greenhouse gases.
The research comes amid mounting evidence that the computer models on which the IPCC based the gloomy forecasts of a rapidly warming planet in its latest report, published in September, are diverging widely from reality.
The pause means there has been no statistically significant increase in world average surface temperatures since the beginning of 1997, despite the models’ projection of a steeply rising trend.
This is in the context of the “stadium wave”, where cycles come and go. You can read more about this over at Judith Curry’s blog. As I always state, we will see what we see.
Then you have this
(The Hockey Schtick) Dr. Jasper Kirkby, head of the CLOUD Experiment at CERN in Geneva notes in the video lecture below that if one extrapolates the current lull in solar activity, an extended period of no sunspots similar to the Maunder Minimum could occur by 2015. The Maunder Minimum was responsible for the Little Ice Age and lasted for 70 years.
Now, this goes back to a 2011 lecture series which highlighted the roll of the Sun in driving climate (which Warmists tend to minimize or ignore). Again, we shall see what we see. What we are seeing is the failure of Warmist models, and talking points, to predict climate. Hence their reliance on yammering about what will happen in 50-100 years, when most will have forgotten the prognostications.
…is a world flooded due to using plastic water bottles, you might just be a Warmist

The blog of the day is Raised On Hoecakes, with a post on a home invasion where the homeowner pulling a gun is “bizarre behavior”.
Read: If All You See… »
The average sea rise over the last 7,000-8,000 years is 6-8 inches per century. As I’ve explained before, we use the 7,000-8,000 year figure due to that being the time when the massive sea rise post-glacial period leveled out (relatively).

When we discuss averages, we have to consider that when the Earth is in a cool period sea rise will be low, if not negative, and must be higher during a warm period. Since the cool periods tend to last longer than the warm periods, then sea rise should be considerably more than the average. How’s that working out?
(Die Welt) A scientific study by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem has closely examined data from the measurement stations located mainly at the coasts and reached the result that sea level rise calculations were exaggerated upwards. In the study Michael Beenstock and colleagues reached the result that sea level rise on a global average is only 1 millimeter and that by the end of the century it will rise only 10 centimeters; only 1/3 of the stations showed a detectable rise, 61% showed no movement and 4% showed a drop.â€
10 centimeters equals 3.937 inches. Let’s call it 4. So sea rise isn’t even at average, but below. The average sea rise during the 20th Century was well within the historical averages discussed at the beginning, when it should have been much higher. The 2007 UN IPCC estimate was for 18 to 59 cm (7.1 to 23 in). Which would have still put sea rise at a range going from purely average to a bit above what one would expect during a big warm period.
The article and translation comes via No Tricks Zone, which notes
Overall 1 mm/year is about 67% less than what Jason TOPEX satellite altimetry is showing (3 mm). If anything, Beenstock’s result indicate a sea level rise slowdown.
Beenstock is not the only scientist who has found sea level rise is much slower than believed. Kulke writes that other peer-reviewed studies reach similar conclusions. For example Nicola Scafetta of Duke University (see full paper here) shows that sea level is subject to 60-year cycles and concludes that the human impact on sea level is too small and is statistically insignificant.
Lest one think Kulke is a raging skeptic, he takes the view that there is a human fingerprint on the climate via CO2, but that it has been highly exaggerated.
Back in July, 2013, Anthony Watts blogged a study using GRACE data to highlight that global sea rise was around 6.7 inches per year. So, purely average.
Read: Report States Global Sea Rise Is Much Less Than Estimated »
I’ve mentioned several times that those who receive health insurance through their employer will soon have to deal with the same problems as individuals due to the grandfathering rules established by Health and Human Services. The administration’s own mid-range estimate was that 51% would lose their employer based plans. That would be 78 million people. Now we obtain more confirmation regarding “if you like your plan, you can keep your plan. Period”
(Townhall) Testifying on Capitol Hill Wednesday about the failure of the Obamacare rollout, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius was grilled about President Obama’s false promise that millions of Americans could keep their insurance plans. Sebelius and Obama repeatedly stated plans held prior to Obamacare passing and going into effect would be grandfathered in. What they didn’t mention is the “grandfathering” process comes with caveats, meaning if plans didn’t meet new Obamacare standards, they would be cancelled. Because of those caveats, millions of Americans in the individual health insurance market have lost their health insurance plans despite being promised they could keep them. Today, Sebelius admitted employer based insurance plans will also be cancelled as a result of grandfathering caveats and government requirements making plans illegal under Obamacare.
“Employer based grandfathered plans will have the same caveats,” Sebelius said under questioning from Republican Senator John Thune.
In other words, kiss your plan goodbye and say hello to one which is more expensive, has higher deductibles, and fewer doctors and medical centers. And, companies may just decide that the extra costs aren’t worth it, that it’s cheaper to pay the fine/tax, and point everyone towards the Exchanges. Which work so well that even Democrats are screaming in frustration (via Lonely Conservative)
Since 1995, Hammack and Brothers have received their health coverage from Kaiser Permanente, where Brothers worked until 2009 as a dietitian and diabetes educator. “We’ve both been in very good health all of our lives – exercise, don’t smoke, drink lightly, healthy weight, no health issues, and so on,†Hammack told me.
The couple — Lee, 60, and JoEllen, 59 — have been paying $550 a month for their health coverage — a plan that offers solid coverage, not one of the skimpy plans Obama has criticized. But recently, Kaiser informed them the plan would be canceled at the end of the year because it did not meet the requirements of the Affordable Care Act. The couple would need to find another one. The cost would be around double what they pay now, but the benefits would be worse.
“From all of the sob stories I’ve heard and read, ours is the most extreme,†Lee told me in an email last week.
As I wrote in the comments at The Lonely Conservative “I have absolutely zero sympathy for these Democrats who are finding out exactly what they voted for and getting nailed. Dems always think their policies should negatively effect Someone Else, whether it be taxation, “climate change†policies, or Obamacare. Then, when they find out that they themselves are getting screwed, they whine to the world.” I’ll reserve my sympathy for those who have been against Obamacare from the start.
I know my plan will change heavily. We will have a choice of 3 plans (sounds much like the Exchange). What we do not know are the deductibles, premiums, and coverages. And our plan wasn’t all that cheap for a corporate plan in the first place. Insurance in North Carolina under the Exchange is already costly.
Crossed at Right Wing News and Stop The ACLU.
Read: Surprise: Sebelius Says Employer Based Plans Will Face Same Hurdles As Individual Plans »