“Pause” May Last For Another 20 Years

So says a new study

(Daily Mail) The 17-year pause in global warming is likely to last into the 2030s and the Arctic sea ice has already started to recover, according to new research.

A paper in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics – by Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology and Dr Marcia Wyatt – amounts to a stunning challenge to climate science orthodoxy.

Not only does it explain the unexpected pause, it suggests that the scientific majority – whose views are represented by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – have underestimated the role of natural cycles and exaggerated that of greenhouse gases.

The research comes amid mounting evidence that the computer models on which the IPCC based the gloomy forecasts of a rapidly warming planet in its latest report, published in September, are diverging widely from reality.

The pause means there has been no statistically significant increase in world average surface temperatures since the beginning of 1997, despite the models’ projection of a steeply rising trend.

This is in the context of the “stadium wave”, where cycles come and go. You can read more about this over at Judith Curry’s blog. As I always state, we will see what we see.

Then you have this

(The Hockey Schtick) Dr. Jasper Kirkby, head of the CLOUD Experiment at CERN in Geneva notes in the video lecture below that if one extrapolates the current lull in solar activity, an extended period of no sunspots similar to the Maunder Minimum could occur by 2015. The Maunder Minimum was responsible for the Little Ice Age and lasted for 70 years.

Now, this goes back to a 2011 lecture series which highlighted the roll of the Sun in driving climate (which Warmists tend to minimize or ignore). Again, we shall see what we see. What we are seeing is the failure of Warmist models, and talking points, to predict climate. Hence their reliance on yammering about what will happen in 50-100 years, when most will have forgotten the prognostications.

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6 Responses to ““Pause” May Last For Another 20 Years”

  1. Jeffery says:

    Do you trust Dr. Curry’s climate model to predict temperatures 20 yrs from now?

  2. Her model is based on real world observable data, unlike Warmists, who use skewed reconstructions and faulty models.

    As for believing, read what I wrote in the post again.

  3. Jeffery says:

    “The paper is about natural internal variability, it says absolutely nothing about AGW.”*

    Who said that? It’s at the bottom of the comment.

    Dr. Curry has put forth a hypothesis as to why there is variability in the surface temperature record in the face of withering increases in atmospheric CO2.

    Abstract of Dr. Curry’s paper (so you can say you’ve read at least some of the original words, rather than just some biased journalists’ opinion):

    A hypothesized low-frequency climate signal propagating across the Northern Hemisphere through a network of synchronized climate indices was identified in previous analyses of instrumental and proxy data. The tempo of signal propagation is rationalized in terms of the multidecadal component of Atlantic Ocean variability—the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Through multivariate statistical analysis of an expanded database, we further investigate this hypothesized signal to elucidate propagation dynamics. The Eurasian Arctic Shelf-Sea Region, where sea ice is uniquely exposed to open ocean in the Northern Hemisphere, emerges as a strong contender for generating and sustaining propagation of the hemispheric signal. Ocean-ice-atmosphere coupling spawns a sequence of positive and negative feedbacks that convey persistence and quasi-oscillatory features to the signal. Further stabilizing the system are anomalies of co-varying Pacific-centered atmospheric circulations. Indirectly related to dynamics in the Eurasian Arctic, these anomalies appear to negatively feed back onto the Atlantic‘s freshwater balance. Earth’s rotational rate and other proxies encode traces of this signal as it makes its way across the Northern Hemisphere.

    * http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/10/the-stadium-wave/#comment-396434

  4. gitarcarver says:

    The bottom line here is that the paper puts forth a theory as to why the “stadium wave” either dampens or enhances temperatures on the earth.

    So as long as the wave enhances temperature increases, Jeffery and his ilk can dismiss the wave and say all of the warming is due to AGW.

    When the wave dampens temperatures, Jeffery wants to say the wave hides the increae of AGW.

    Here we see Jeffery, who always asks for other natural causes in temperature increases and decreases, dismisses out of hand any natural cause that that would explain increase in temps other than AGW.

    The position is dishonest, but most cultists are dishonest.

  5. Jeffery says:

    I did not dismiss Dr. Curry’s paper at all. I don’t think her hypothesis is supported by data, but in her own words she describes her paper thus: “The paper is about natural internal variability, it says absolutely nothing about AGW.”

    It does not address the increased heat energy retained by the Earth by AGW, but how that heat energy is distributed.

    Naturally, the denialists misread it. Curry attempts to explain the “pause” in surface temperature measurements. The paper says the opposite of what the denialists think it does.

  6. gitarcarver says:

    I did not dismiss Dr. Curry’s paper at all.</em

    And once again we see that Jeffery can’t read what was said.

    Oh well.

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