Impeachment Is Not Popular In Swing States

Bad news for Democrats. It must have hurt CNN right in the gonads to publish this

Impeachment isn’t popular in Wisconsin and these 5 other key swing states

Poll of the week: A new Marquette University poll from the state of Wisconsin finds that 44% of voters want President Donald Trump impeached and removed from office, while 51% do not want him impeached and removed from office.

What’s the point: A look at the national polls indicate that impeaching and removing Trump from office is at, a minimum, a plurality position. Our CNN/SSRS poll out this week showed that 51% of voters nationwide support impeaching and removing from office compared to 44% who disagreed. The average has the split closer to 48% for impeach and removal and 44% against it.

But as Democrats saw in 2016, presidential elections in the United States are determined via the electoral college, not popular vote. And because Republicans control the Senate and 67 Senate votes are necessary to remove Trump from office, the chance that Trump will be forced to leave the presidency is currently low. In other words, the impeachment saga revolving around Trump remains as much an electoral question as it does a legal one.

Wisconsin, of course, was the most infamous swing state of 2016. It was the tipping point state (i.e. the one that put Trump over the top in the electoral college). When the most accurate pollster in Wisconsin (Marquette) in 2018 reveals that impeaching and removing Trump is not popular, it’s a critical finding.

Importantly, it’s not just this Marquette poll that show that impeaching and remove Trump could be an electoral loser for Democrats (and potential winner for Trump) in the swing states.

Continuing with this sham impeachment schtick, which is simply an extension of their inability to accept that Trump won, could drive voters who refused to vote for Trump last time (but weren’t voting Hillary) to vote for him in 2020

Florida is one of the most important swing states in the nation. Trump won there by only a point in 2016. With 29 electoral votes, Democrats would likely take back the presidency with a win there in 2020. A poll of Florida voters conducted by the University of North Florida out this week shows the divide at 46% in support of impeaching and removing Trump and 48% opposed to it.

Indeed, take an examination of the battleground states that Democrats almost certainly need to make inroads into in 2020. The New York Times and Siena College, 2018’s most accurate pollster, took a poll of voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Arizona. These were closest states in the country that cast their electoral votes for Trump in 2016.

Just 43% of voters in these six states want to impeach and remove from office at this point. The majority, 53%, do not. This means that the margin for not impeaching and removing Trump in these states (+10 points) is running well ahead of Trump’s margin in these states of about 1.5 points. Put another way, impeaching and removing Trump from office in these states is not a popular position.

Go for it, Democrats. It will backfire.

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8 Responses to “Impeachment Is Not Popular In Swing States”

  1. John says:

    Teach did you actually bother to check that poll yourself or just read what someone else had to say about it
    Yes it is true that in the swing states most people do not favor the impeachment of Trump
    By a 50-45 count they DO favor the inquiry/investigation for impeachment to continue
    And that gap increases to 51-43 among the crucial self identified independents
    Also please note that the part of the polling was done as far back as 2 weeks ago and the last 2 weeks have not been kind to Our Dear Leader All polling even from Fox and Rasmussen show a downward trend for Trump

    • formwiz says:

      Fox is irrelevant and the media’s been all over Trump about Syria.

      And just wanting an investigation clearly does not translate into having his scalp.

  2. Dana says:

    I’d like to think it was Pennsylvania which put President Trump over the top, but some states which were obviously going to be carried by Mr Trump were called much later than they should have been: North Carolina and Pennsylvania most notably.

    It would take twenty, twenty! Republican senators voting for removal to kick President Trump out of the White House. Where are you going to find twenty Republican senators in states carried by Hillary Clinton or in states which favor removal? Maybe Maine, with Susan Collins? Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania will certainly not vote for removal. Mitt Romney is a probable vote for removal, simply because he hates the President’s guts, though not so much that he didn’t ask for his endorsement for his 2018 Senate campaign. Democrat Joe Manchin of West Virginia will not vote for removal.

    The two-thirds supermajority requirement insures that removal is something which must be overwhelmingly popular, and removal is not.

    • formwiz says:

      Cocaine Mitch will never let it get that far. More to the point, a lot of speculation centers on the fact Pelosi Galore never called a vote because she knows it won’t carry. The Katie Hill thing is one more nail in the House’s coffin. Nobody’s going to try to further antagonize the public.

      And the Walking Talking Commode is blowing smoke about investigation. People said the want an investigation if there’s something fishy. Right now that means.

  3. Elwood P. Dowd says:

    TEACH typed: Impeachment Is Not Popular In Swing States

    Neither is tRump.

    • formwiz says:

      Then why are the Demos panicking so badly?

      Trump has come through for them and even people who don’t like him will vote for him. The difference between a dilettante and a doer.

      • John says:

        Do you see a trend that no one else sees in the polls showing Trump going badly

        • formwiz says:

          I see Trump doing better than Zippy was doing at the same point. Y’know when all you Demos keep saying it had turned around.

          I also see Trump settling the Syria problem and the Demos getting very concerned over A) Andrew McCabe suddenly rolling over B) No capable nominee for next year C) Impeachment not even popular with House Demos and D) The economy still rocking.

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