Latest Excuse For The Pause: It’s A Fluke

Does this make Excuse #67? There have been so many, and the excuses get thrown around in a willy nilly manner, that it makes it rather difficult to keep track. This comes via Yid with Lid

Are climate models really reliable?

There was a specific problem that puzzled Marotzke [Jochem Marotzke, director at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg] and his British colleague Piers M. Forster.

“We knew that the surface temperature of the earth has been stagnant for 15 years, whereas the models show progressive warming,” said Marotzke, referring to the problem.

Were the current climate models therefore wrong? Was there a systematic error in the models? Is global warming just a nightmare? Jochem Marotzke didn’t start this research to prove or disprove anything.

“We just wanted to grasp where this discrepancy between models and observations is coming from,” explained the meteorologist, when asked about the motivation for his most recent study.

Just a fluke?

The research team has just published his results in the journal Nature. With the help of a multi-step calculation, Marotzke and Forster ruled out systematic errors in the models. Instead, the researchers now blamed serendipity for the current lull in global warming. On the basis of their calculations, they say there is no reason to doubt current forecasts detailing strong global warming.

For laymen this may sound overly simplistic. Are the scientists just blaming chance because they can’t find another explanation? Marotzke has no problem with his latest findings.

“As meteorologists, we know that chance and chaos dominate the weather. You have to face the fact that chance plays a big role here.”

“It’s important that you can clearly distinguish between what happens randomly and what can be explained – which also improves our models,” he added.

Notice that the researchers are also essentially claiming that the models are correct, it is the observations of real data that are wrong. Something Dr. Roy Spencer noted almost a year ago.

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11 Responses to “Latest Excuse For The Pause: It’s A Fluke”

  1. Phil Taylor says:

    Popular Mechanics has now discontinued coments from their on-line puplications because coments from climate change skeptics undermined their articles on the subject. Their concern was that the coments would persuade their readers to question Climate Change.

    If the theory was as solid as they believed then it should stand on its own merit. Discontinuing coments only allows one side of the story to be told…
    Also as scientists they should not take sides but let thefacts dictate the truth.

  2. Jim Curran says:

    A fluke? Perhaps it was serendipity or coincidence that temperatures rose as CO2 levels rose.

    When did science start to not matter?

  3. John says:

    So I guess that deniers say that because 2014 was the hottest year ever that somehow proves that the pause continues ?

  4. John says:

    Your Dr Roy Spencer also says 50% of the temp increase. Is AGW

  5. Kevin says:

    The truth of the matter is that the satellites that record temperature data are being fed false data by aliens who want to make our planet warmer and then take it over. It’s true. I saw it in the Charlie Sheen documentary, “The Arrival”.

  6. gitarcarver says:

    So I guess that deniers say that because 2014 was the hottest year ever ……

    Says who?

  7. Deserttrek says:

    the abusers of children, the elderly and haters of the middle class claim 2014 was the hottest ever but it was not …..nasa says it is with a less than 40% reliability which means its BS … of course that doesn’t stop the abusers of children and the elderly from pushing their scheme of wealth transfer and hate

  8. Hank_M says:

    “So I guess that deniers say that because 2014 was the hottest year ever that somehow proves that the pause continues”

    John, try to keep up. The NY Times changed their own article on this to say that “Last year was the hottest on earth since record-keeping began in 1880.’

  9. Jeffery says:

    Since global warming has stopped, how soon can be expect the temperatures to drop?

    There was a pause from 1940 to 1980. Since 1980, the Earth has warmed another 0.6C.

  10. Kevin says:

    The temps should drop a little from 2020s-2040s just like they did from 1940s to 1960s, Jeffrey.

    It is likely that the temperature drops will continue to be ‘adjusted’ away for a few of those years though.

  11. Jeffery says:

    The temps should drop a little from 2020s-2040s just like they did from 1940s to 1960s

    Based on computer models?

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