Polar Bear Numbers Were Simply Made Up

Don’t worry, this was all done for Science!!!!!!

(Daily Caller) This may come as a shocker to some, but scientists are not always right — especially when under intense public pressure for answers.

Researchers with the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) recently admitted to experienced zoologist and polar bear specialist Susan Crockford that the estimate given for the total number of polar bars in the Arctic was “simply a qualified guess given to satisfy public demand.

Crockford has been critical of official polar bear population estimates because they fail to include five large subpopulations of polar bears. Due to the uncertainty of the populations in these areas, PBSG did not include them in their official estimate — but the polar bear group did include other subpopulation estimates.

Make sure to read the link in the second paragraph. That “public demand” was surely Warmists who wanted to find a way to issue doom and gloom reports to continue propping up their un-scientific cult.

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20 Responses to “Polar Bear Numbers Were Simply Made Up”

  1. Blick says:

    you need a number? I’ll give you a number! POW! BIF, BAM. Take that, and that.
    Nine-fifths of all statistics are made up; including this one.
    Educated guesses; magical beans; pull it out your ass; smoke and mirrors; Unicorns and mermaids; Here be Dragons. And “realist” Jeffery wants us to believe this globull warming fairie storey. Only useful for scaring children and the gullible.

  2. jl says:

    Don’t you know that’s what you’re supposed to do when the science is settled and it’s a “fact that CO2 added to the atmosphere causes warming”? You lie about polar bears.

  3. Better_Be_Gumballs says:

    Most of the estimated population numbers were made up. Others population numbers were ignored.

    Truth is always a casualty of politics.

  4. Jeffery says:

    The numbers were not “made up”, but are the best estimates available.

    The Earth continues to warm, and the Earth continues to lose Arctic Ice. Why? Because of carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere.

  5. Better_Be_Gumballs says:

    You can’t make a best estimate when you ignore data. You should know that being a Socialist who is in favor of the CAGW policies that are based on ignored and fudged data.

    Please tell me how CO2 melts ice?

    Also, Arctic ice is doing just fine. And you continue to ignore the data yourself that shows global sea ice is growing and above “average”.

  6. Rob in Katy says:

    Or Jeffery, it could be that damn big ball of fire in the sky…but then that would be obvious and the simple answer for all the past cycles of hottery and coldery that the Earth as been through…

    And I would like to get a couple coasters from some of those bars.

  7. Jeffery says:

    Gumballs,

    Any number of grammar school level Earth Science texts explain how atmospheric carbon dioxide causes warming. The greenhouse effect has been well understood for over a century. Also, water exists as a solid (ice) below 32F. Ice starts to melt above 32F. If you have a volume of ice (solid water) and expose it to temperatures above 32F, the volume of that ice becomes less (gets smaller). see: http://www.ucar.edu/learn/1_1_2_3t.htm

    During the Arctic winter more ice forms. During the summer some of it melts. That’s because it’s cold in winter and warm in summer.

    Antarctic sea ice extent IS increasing. On a globe, Antarctica is at the bottom. The Arctic is at the top.

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    Katy,

    Yes, the Sun (what modern man calls that “big ball of fire in sky”) would be a simple answer as to why the Earth warms and cools. Since the Sun is in a cool phase why is the Earth still warming? The periods of hottery (sic) and coldery (sic) that the Earth has experienced in the past do not correlate simply with the Sun’s energy output but also with cyclical changes in the Earth’s own orbit, asteroids smashing into Earth, extensive volcanism etc.

    The current period of rapid warming results from carbon dioxide being added to the atmosphere.

  8. Better_Be_Gumballs says:

    First off, thanks for the basic physics and astrology lesson. But you still have not answered these questions”

    1) How does CO2 itself melt ice, per your statement: “the Earth continues to lose Arctic Ice. Why? Because of carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere.

    2) HOw does an above average global sea ice estimate mean that we are losing ice?

    3) How is the graphic showing a lack of statistically significant warming over the last near 18 years false?

    4) What is so bad about a world that is warming up out of a recent ice age?

    5) you say: “Since the Sun is in a cool phase why is the Earth still warming?“, so you agree that the sun could be going into a cool phase, but you disagree on if the earth is in not-warming phase? Could you please provide evidence that the earth has warmed since the late 90’s?

    6) You continue to insist that it is the CO2 molecules that are responsible for the warmth that our world enjoys. Care to describe what our world’s atmosphere would be like without CO2 in the atmosphere?

  9. Jeffery says:

    1) How does CO2 itself melt ice, per your statement: “the Earth continues to lose Arctic Ice. Why? Because of carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere.” — Atmospheric carbon dioxide is causing warming and the warming is melting the ice. Are you really asking if carbon dioxide directly melts ice? Are you through playing your silly games?—

    2) HOw does an above average global sea ice estimate mean that we are losing ice? — When the average is getting smaller with time, it means less ice.—

    3) How is the graphic showing a lack of statistically significant warming over the last near 18 years false? — The RSS satellite dataset shows the least warming of all the various datasets, and is the only dataset that the good Lord, Monckton and Teach pimp. To use only that dataset is dishonest. Most of the Earth’s surface heat is in the oceans and shifts between the oceans and the atmosphere (El Nino, La Nina, PDO etc). The oceans continue to warm as well. —

    4) What is so bad about a world that is warming up out of a recent ice age?— Nothing at all. The climate is neither good nor evil, but some climates are better for humans than others. It may not be a coincidence that human civilizations developed during the Holocene when global temperatures were quite stable.—

    5) you say: “Since the Sun is in a cool phase why is the Earth still warming?“, so you agree that the sun could be going into a cool phase, but you disagree on if the earth is in not-warming phase? Could you please provide evidence that the earth has warmed since the late 90′s? — Sure, check any of the global datasets. Check the ocean heat content measurements. Of course the Sun heats and cools. Only a science denier would deny something so fundamental.—

    6) You continue to insist that it is the CO2 molecules that are responsible for the warmth that our world enjoys. Care to describe what our world’s atmosphere would be like without CO2 in the atmosphere? — The primary difference would be the temperature… much colder – perhaps 30C colder than now – brrr! Water vapor levels would drop too, as water condensed and ice formed. The Earth would be a snowball! But just because 280 ppm of carbon dioxide seems ideal for human civilization doesn’t 400 or 800 ppm is even better! It’s hard for someone who refuses to understand to understand this, but although water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas it depends on carbon dioxide (the primary non-condensing greenhouse gas). Why? Without the boost from carbon dioxide it’s just too darn cold to vaporize much water. Warm air holds much, much more water than cold air. The Earth as we know needs carbon dioxide, just not too much of it.—

  10. Better_Be_Gumballs says:

    1) You said it. Not us. Thanks for confirming your belief in your pet theory.

    2)

    When the average is getting smaller with time, it means less ice.

    I know you dont realize this, but that is impossible for an average baseline.

    3)

    To use only that dataset is dishonest. Most of the Earth’s surface heat is in the oceans … The oceans continue to warm as well.

    Wrong again. Now, if by chance you are referring to the Global Ocean Heat Content shown in joules, all I can say is.. DUH. Measure anything with a small enough measurement device and even small changes show up.

    4) Thank you. I’ll infer from that statement that you will now stop harping about the non-existant dangers from a world that is warmer than when it was in an ice age.

    5) Thanks for supporting our argument – See my rebuttal point #3 above that the oceans follow along with the RSS Satellite coverage of the Earth’s lack of warming since the late 90’s.

    6) oh boy. So you truly believe that CO2 is the primary gas that is responsible for the greenhouse effect on earth? That is so very sad. Please explain that if CO2 is responsible for our world warming, how during certain periods when CO2 is low, our world warms to temperatures higher than today? Or when during periods when CO2 rises, our world cools?

  11. Jeffery says:

    Gumballs,

    Pretty much what I expect from you…

    6) As I’ve explained to you time and time again, just because carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas (it stays in the atmosphere a long time, does not condense except below -109F, mixes rapidly in the atmosphere) it is not the only “forcing” setting the global temperature. The intensity of the Sun can vary, volcanism ebs and flows, Milankovitch cycles change the distribution of the Sun’s energy that reaches the Earth, asteroids smashing into Earth, the albedo can increase and decrease, water can exist as vapor or be locked up as ice, other greenhouse gases can be locked up in the oceans or in permafrost. Humans are now pushing the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide to the highest levels of most of humankind’s existence (>400,000 years) – and still climbing. The Earth’s average temperature is higher now than in the past 100,000 years (Teach is lying to you about the MWP being warmer) – and is still climbing.

    The Sun’s intensity cannot account for the current rapid warming. Neither can volcanoes, Milankovitch cycles or asteroids. The albedo (ice sheets, sea ice), water vapor and other greenhouse gases largely depend on the ambient temperature (driven by carbon dioxide levels). Nope. Carbon dioxide is causing the Earth to warm these day. That’s not to say that a giant asteroid couldn’t slam into California shooting gigatons of aerosols into the atmosphere blocking some sunlight causing cooling, increasing the ice sheets, hence reflecting more sunlight starting a longer term cooling cycle. Half of Europe could explode in a giant supervolcano having the same effect. Perhaps a Teapublican will start a global thermonuclear war ’cause Benghazi or something. But those are just conservative wet dreams. For now, carbon dioxide is causing the Earth to warm and we need to figure out what to do about it.

  12. david7134 says:

    Jeff,
    Where is the CO2 measurement being made? What is the proportion of CO2 to a given rise in temperature? Why do you use grammar school text as an authority? The list goes on and on. You have no science in your position.

  13. Jeffery says:

    dave,

    Carbon dioxide is measured at Mauna Loa as well as other places.

    Please explain more clearly what you mean by “proportion of carbon dioxide”.

    I used a grammar school text because I was being considerate to Gumballs.

    By all means list some more of the ‘no science’ you found in my position.

  14. jl says:

    J- “Co2 is the most important greenhouse gas.” No, water vapor is. “The sun’s intensity can’t account for the rapid warming.” Again, there’s no definition of rapid and no way you can prove that it’s not the sun, other than you constantly saying so. “Atmospheric CO2 is causing warming.” But I thought the heat was hiding in the oceans? The “theory” said the atmosphere would warm, but it’s not, so it’s hiding in the oceans? Interesting. “When the average(sea ice) is getting smaller with time.” Actually it’s been gaining lately. And if it was getting smaller you have no proof that it’s Co2 caused, and more importantly you have no proof it wouldn’t have gained/receded anyway without man. Nice try. “On a globe, Antarctica is at the bottom and the Arctic at the top.” So? There’s no top or bottom or up or down in space. “The earth continues to lose Arctic ice.” And continues to gain Antarctic ice, neither of which proves cause and effect. “Atmospheric CO2 is causing warming.” You have no proof it wouldn’t have warmed anyway, even though it stopped. “Teach is lying about the MWP. No, he’s not. How’s this: Jeffery is lying about CO2 and warming. Fixed it for you.

  15. Jeffery says:

    “Co2 is the most important greenhouse gas.” No, water vapor is. (Sorry, but you are wrong. Carbon dioxide controls the activity of water vapor as a greenhouse gas. Note that I pointed out why.)

    “The sun’s intensity can’t account for the rapid warming.” Again, there’s no definition of rapid and no way you can prove that it’s not the sun, other than you constantly saying so. (Sorry, but you are wrong. If the Sun is cooling but the Earth is warming, how can it be the Sun. It’s not the Sun.)

    “Atmospheric CO2 is causing warming.” But I thought the heat was hiding in the oceans? The “theory” said the atmosphere would warm, but it’s not, so it’s hiding in the oceans? Interesting. (You are almost right. The atmosphere is warming, the oceans are warming. The atmosphere will warm even more with the coming El Nino unless we have a supervolcano eruption or get hit by an asteroid.)

    “When the average(sea ice) is getting smaller with time.” Actually it’s been gaining lately. And if it was getting smaller you have no proof that it’s Co2 caused, and more importantly you have no proof it wouldn’t have gained/receded anyway without man. Nice try. (The question was about Arctic ice. It’s in decline as the Earth warms.)

    “On a globe, Antarctica is at the bottom and the Arctic at the top.” So? There’s no top or bottom or up or down in space. (This was in response to the intentional conflation of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. Seriously, you don’t think the globe on the teacher’s desk has a top and a bottom? Interesting.)

    “The earth continues to lose Arctic ice.” And continues to gain Antarctic ice, neither of which proves cause and effect. (So?)

    “Atmospheric CO2 is causing warming.” You have no proof it wouldn’t have warmed anyway, even though it stopped. (Warming has not stopped. There is no other explanation for why the Earth is warming. All the data are consistent with carbon dioxide dependent global warming. As I’ve pointed out, there is no evidence you would accept anyway.)

    “Teach is lying about the MWP.” No, he’s not. (I may have exaggerated. He may actually think the MWP was warmer. But he’s not too dumb to read. So it may be selective or willful ignorance.)

    How’s this: Jeffery is lying about CO2 and warming. (Nice try. 99% of smart people disagree with you.)

  16. Better_Be_Gumballs says:

    It’s like trying to point out to a baby that when you have 2 apples, you do in fact have “2” apples.

    Carbon dioxide controls the activity of water vapor

    After that, all you can do is

  17. Jeffery says:

    Gumballs,

    It’s not that difficult to understand. What controls the concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere? Temperature. As temperature increases, water vapor increases, causing more temperature increase since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. This is a positive feedback loop.

    It’s clear to non-denialists that the Earth is warming, and the water vapor levels are going up too.

    But what is causing the Earth to warm? Is the Sun hotter? No, it’s cooler. Is the Sun’s magnetic field diverting galactic cosmic rays away from the Earth preventing cooling clouds from forming? No. What’s clearly happening is that less heat is leaving the Earth. Why? Greenhouse gases. The culprit is the carbon dioxide that we’ve added to the atmosphere over the past century. It’s driving the warming that is amplified by water vapor (remember that positive feedback loop thingy from earlier?). If atmospheric carbon dioxide were 280 ppm now instead of 400 ppm, the Earth would be around 1C cooler and we wouldn’t be on the path to a few degrees C warmer next century.

    Although it’s always difficult to discern denialist’s hypotheses, are you suggesting that the current warming is triggered by water vapor increases? Most denialists argue much like a defense attorney working to establish reasonable doubt – throwing counterarguments against the wall hoping something will stick.

  18. Jeffery says:

    Another in a long line of hit and runs by david…

    He’ll return in a day or a week and proclaim that I don’t answer any of his “scientific” queries.

    Denialists are not interested in answering scientific questions about global warming. They are only interested in making certain that “carbon dioxide” is NOT the answer. If one understands that single motive, one understands the denialist.

    Comment by david7134

    2014-06-02 19:11:28

    Jeff,
    Where is the CO2 measurement being made? What is the proportion of CO2 to a given rise in temperature? Why do you use grammar school text as an authority? The list goes on and on. You have no science in your position.

  19. Better_Be_Gumballs says:

    Once again, J is wrong wrong wrong
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/06/nasa-satellite-data-shows-a-decline-in-water-vapor/

    Just because you say something, does not make it true. And more than likely, because YOU say it, it isn’t true.

  20. Jeffery says:

    Gumballs,

    I recall discussing the blog entry from WUWT here before. Besides the source, WUWT, and the author, Ken Gregory of the energy industry lobbyist front group, FriendsofScience, the flaw in the article is in the arithmetic. Look at Figure 1, an unnecessarily complicated logarithmic plot of water vapor in various layers of the atmosphere vs time (but only from 1988 through 2001). As Mr. Gregory points out in Fig. 1, there is an apparent large drop in water vapor content in the two lower set of curves! And an apparent tiny increase in the other, L1, which is the surface up to about 3 km high, which contains most of the water vapor. But note the log plot which indicates that L1 contains over 4 times more water vapor than layers L2 and L3 combined.

    Mr. Gregory inexplicably created Table 1 which absolutely and completely contradicted his and Anthony Watts’ false title: NASA satellite data shows a decline in water vapor

    Posted on March 6, 2013 Guest post submitted by Ken Gregory, Friends of Science.org

    Table 1 shows that the L1 layer water vapor increased by 1.73 mm water, while layers L2 and L3 decreased 0.57 and 0.55 mm water, respectively. Therefore, the overall measured water vapor content increased 0.61 mm water.

    So Gregory and Watts cherry-picked data from atmospheric layers showing a slight decrease in water vapor even though the overall water vapor content was increasing, just as I said.

    Gumballs: I know it’s not easy, but you should try to understand the blog posts you cite.

    Here’s an actual scientific article from the Proceedings of our own US National Academy of Science on atmospheric water vapor. Enjoy.

    http://www.pnas.org/content/104/39/15248.full.pdf

    One other point. Charlatans like Mr. Watts and Mr. Gregory lie to their readers daily. They do it because they are only interested in the propaganda that the products of fossil fuel combustion are not involved in global warming; they have no interest in truth.

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