Who’s Up For A Crash Course In Scientific Uncertainty?

Remember follow the science. Even if they don’t know what it is

The U.S. Is Getting a Crash Course in Scientific Uncertainty

When the coronavirus surfaced last year, no one was prepared for it to invade every aspect of daily life for so long, so insidiously. The pandemic has forced Americans to wrestle with life-or-death choices every day of the past 18 months — and there’s no end in sight.

Scientific understanding of the virus changes by the hour, it seems. The virus spreads only by close contact or on contaminated surfaces, then turns out to be airborne. The virus mutates slowly, but then emerges in a series of dangerous new forms. Americans don’t need to wear masks. Wait, they do.

At no point in this ordeal has the ground beneath our feet seemed so uncertain. In just the past week, federal health officials said they would begin offering booster shots to all Americans in the coming months. Days earlier, those officials had assured the public that the vaccines were holding strong against the Delta variant of the virus, and that boosters would not be necessary. (snip)

Americans are living with science as it unfolds in real time. The process has always been fluid, unpredictable. But rarely has it moved at this speed, leaving citizens to confront research findings as soon as they land at the front door, a stream of deliveries that no one ordered and no one wants. (snip)

But to frustrated Americans unfamiliar with the circuitous and often contentious path to scientific discovery, public health officials have seemed at times to be moving the goal posts and flip-flopping, or misleading, even lying to, the country.

We’re told to follow the science, but, they don’t actually know what it is. They don’t know where it is going. How many still clean their hands after touching stuff? Like, say, you go to the grocery store then slather on hand sanitizer when you get in your car? How many grabbed some sort of wet wipe when they got in their car and wiped your hands than your steering wheel, shifter, and door handle? We don’t do that now, do we? How about wiping down door handles at work? Desks? Phones? You should wipe them down at all times for other things. Do we still avoid touching our face? Sure, this is all in real time, but, how do we trust it? They tell us to wear masks, but, masks mostly do nothing. Fauci said this in February of 2020.

Researchers first frame the hypothesis, then design experiments to test it. Data from hundreds of studies, often by competing teams, are analyzed before the community of experts comes to a conclusion.

Yet, we are being told to do certain things, mandated even, to act in certain ways, based on the hypothesis, not on the results. What are the results on masking? Here’s yet another study

Most face masks won’t stop COVID-19 indoors, study warns

N95 or KN95 face masks may be the best way to avoid COVID-19 during crowded indoor events. That’s the recommendation from a new study reporting most cloth masks just don’t do the job when it comes to stopping the spread of coronavirus within enclosed spaces.

Researchers from the University of Waterloo simulated a person breathing in a large room with a cloth face mask on. Despite wearing a mask, the study finds a large buildup of aerosol droplets suspended in the air. Besides raising awareness on the vulnerability of certain face masks, these findings also emphasize the need for proper ventilation indoors. More ventilation means less of a chance for potentially viral aerosols to linger around.

“There is no question it is beneficial to wear any face covering, both for protection in close proximity and at a distance in a room,” says study leader Serhiy Yarusevych, a professor of mechanical and mechatronics engineering, in a university release. “However, there is a very serious difference in the effectiveness of different masks when it comes to controlling aerosols.”

Studies continue to show that aerosols exhaled by infected individuals can indeed infect others with COVID-19, even if someone is standing more than six feet away.

And the majority of people are wearing masks that mostly won’t stop the Chinese flu. And all the government says is “wear a mask! They stop it!”

Researchers theorize many people wear masks that don’t fit their face properly. As a result, many cloth and surgical masks only filter about 10 percent of exhaled aerosols. The rest make their way past the mask, most through the top, and spread into the surrounding environment. Conversely, higher-quality, more expensive N95 and KN95 masks filter over 50 percent of all aerosol droplets.

So, even the N95s and KN95s only stop around 50 percent. Sure, that’s better than nothing, right? And then they end up in the roads and landfills. The rest? 10%. Even those “surgical masks”. I’ll take my chance with not wearing one when it’s 10%, avoiding the annoyance. And, yes, again, I’m vaccinated. I’ll take the booster if able. They may not stop me from getting it, but, since the science is showing that most will barely feel it, I prefer not feeling sick.

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7 Responses to “Who’s Up For A Crash Course In Scientific Uncertainty?”

  1. Zachriel says:

    William Teach: We’re told to follow the science, but, they don’t actually know what it is.

    Not knowing everything is not the same as not knowing anything.

    The Relativity of Wrong: ”
    when people thought the Earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the Earth was spherical, they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the Earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the Earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together.”

  2. Zachriel says:

    William Teach cites study: “There is no question it is beneficial to wear any face covering, both for protection in close proximity and at a distance in a room,” says study leader.

  3. Nolan Parker says:

    We’re told to follow the science, but, they don’t actually know what it is..
    Or choose to ignore the obvious.
    The people who say a man can get pregnant are trying to tell me what to believe.

  4. Elwood P. Dowd says:

    Science is not a conclusion, it is a process.

    And it is a messy and at times agonizingly slow process. But it’s the best we have. ONe key is to always be aware of and to measure the uncertainty.

    Economist Paul Samuelson famously said: Well when events change, I change my mind. What do you do?

    To reject all learnings because the process is incomplete is madness. Masks reduce the spread of airborne diseases. N95 > paper > cloth. TEACH cites a university press release describing that cloth masks are less effective than surgical masks and N95 masks, a finding confirmed by other studies.

    Wearing a mask correctly is not to protect TEACH but to protect others.

    • Kye says:

      And if you do a real search not just one of leftist political blogs and such you’ll find verified doctors who refute that opinion and show proof. Or you could use your own common sense (if you have any left after decades of leftist propaganda) and ask yourself if you can pour water through it how the hell can it stop a microbe?

      Or you could look at the actual masks that professionals use when they want real protection not political power.

      Despite what many claim, this is not about convincing the public. It is about justifying to themselves their actions against the people resisting the revolution.

      • Elwood P. Dowd says:

        Kye,

        Scientists try to take into account all the verifiable studies and arrive at a consensus. Any single study can be an outlier either from poor design or statistics (95% confidence still means 1 in 20 studies gives a spurious result by chance).

        Concluding that masks don’t work is not supported by the evidence.

        The viruses appear to be transmitted not as individual viruses but associated with aerosols and droplets, which ARE stopped by varying degrees by the different masks.

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