Study: Natural Processes Pretty Much Causing Arctic Sea Loss

The authors of this study, and the various articles about it, try and paint a picture where Mankind is also very much a cause, but, nope, move on Warmists

Models show natural swings in the Earth’s climate contribute to Arctic sea ice loss

Arctic sea ice loss in the last 37 year is not due to humans alone. (in other words, not due to humans except for a tiny bit)

New research by a Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) scientist and collaborators show that Arctic sea ice loss is enhanced by natural climate fluctuations such as El Niños and La Niñas. With manmade greenhouse gases on top of the natural climate variability, the decrease in sea ice is even more severe than climate models originally estimated.

Using a series of climate models, the team used a “fingerprint” method to estimate the impact of natural climate variability. Natural swings in the Earth’s climate contribute to about 40 percent to 50 percent of the observed multi-decadal decline in Arctic sea ice.

“Internal variability can enhance or mute changes in climate due to greenhouse gas emissions. In this case, internal variability has tended to enhance Arctic sea ice loss,” said Stephen Po-Chedley, an LLNL climate scientist and a co-author on a paper appearing in the Nov. 5 edition of Nature Geoscience.

As it turns out, observations of sea ice loss were larger than models predicted. Sea ice loss since 1979 has increased due to natural variability; observations show more Arctic sea ice loss than the climate models average

In other words, the reality is, once you remove the biases from the computer models, that the sea ice loss since 1979 (interesting that they aren’t looking at data from all through the Modern Warm Period, which includes warming spikes and pauses/cooling) (double, 1979 is the start of a warming spike through the mid-1990’s) is 50-60% caused by Mankind, you end up with the notion that it’s probably somewhere above 80% natural, if not more.

It is funny that they find that sea ice loss is more than the models average, eh? Models are not reality.

Further, how do we know that this isn’t entirely normal? We cannot know the true extent of sea ice change during the previous warm periods from direct observation, which would set the standard and averages to understand what is happening today.

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