What Say To A New “End Of Snow” Prediction?

This little paper comes to us via Eric Worrall at Watts Up With That? which has something really fun in the abstract

The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future

Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins—which together have a present population of ~2 billion people—are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century.

Doom!!!!! Or, is it doom??????

Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of >300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

So, ‘climate change’ is going to cause more or less snowfall in the future. If they predict either and one comes true, they win!

This comes on the heels of one of the longest running failed climate predictions, the most awesome quote by Dr. David Viner, a senior research scientist at the CRU of East Anglia University, “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is”, being pulled along with the entire article from the UK Independent. The original title of the article was “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”, and led to the fun meme “schoolkids won’t know what (x) is”. I had lots of fun with it, with stuff like Schoolkids Seriously Tired Of Knowing What Snow Looks Like, and Tom Nelson used to do the same on his site, and still does on Twitter.

And we now get this

British winter could feel longer and colder because of El Nino
This year’s El Nino will be one of the strongest in 50 years and is likely to bring a cold snap at the end of winter

The long and short of it is that the UK Met office, renowned for getting their predictions wrong in their quest to push Hotcoldwetdry, is pre-blaming another potential cold and snowy winter on El Nino, after suffering through harsh winters for most of the last decade. That’s not to say they are wrong in that El Nino won’t cause this, but, one has to wonder, if El Nino, a natural occurrence, can cause weather changes, why can nature cause most of the minuscule warming over the past 160+ years?

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One Response to “What Say To A New “End Of Snow” Prediction?”

  1. john says:

    Teach there is less frozen water on our planet now than there was. This is because of that 2F rise in the last 100 years. This is because the planet is getting warmer.https://nsidc.org/cryosphere
    Teach why are “harsh winters” in Great Britain considered important when that is such a small part of our planet ? Please remember that when you prattle about last year’s harsh winter (in the eastern part of the continental USA) you leave out that it was the 7th warmest winter EVAH in the USA It is almost like you are intentionally cherry picking “facts” to actually misinform us. Much like your Lord Monkeyton

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