Whoops: “Scientists” Only 38% Sure 2014 Was Warmest Year Evah!

Of course, at the end of the day, it matters little whether 2014 was the hottest during…um, yeah, a weak Holocene warm period,which had been preceded by a big cool period, and a strong warm period. Why? Because we should expect warming during a warm period. The argument is over causation. Anyhow, the computer modelers, er, excuse me, climate scientists, made an interesting admission

(UK Daily Mail) The Nasa climate scientists who claimed 2014 set a new record for global warmth last night admitted they were only 38 per cent sure this was true.

In a press release on Friday, Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) claimed its analysis of world temperatures showed ‘2014 was the warmest year on record’.

The claim made headlines around the world, but yesterday it emerged that GISS’s analysis – based on readings from more than 3,000 measuring stations worldwide – is subject to a margin of error. Nasa admits this means it is far from certain that 2014 set a record at all.

Yet the Nasa press release failed to mention this, as well as the fact that the alleged ‘record’ amounted to an increase over 2010, the previous ‘warmest year’, of just two-hundredths of a degree – or 0.02C. The margin of error is said by scientists to be approximately 0.1C – several times as much.

Seriously, even if it was, does a hundredth of a degree C make a difference?

Of course, it helps the narrative when the data is changed on a constant basis.

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9 Responses to “Whoops: “Scientists” Only 38% Sure 2014 Was Warmest Year Evah!”

  1. Jeffery says:

    The argument is over causation.

    You flatter yourself by implying there’s any argument. Scientists have a theory supported by overwhelming evidence explaining causation. What is your hypothesis?

    when the data is (sic) changed on a constant basis.

    So now it’s not warming and is all a hoax?

  2. Jeffery says:

    What it all means is that the Earth continues to warm from the CO2 we continue to add to the atmosphere.

    The warmest years in recorded history have occurred during the Deniers’ so-called “pause”.

    Can the Deniers’ science (crystal ball) predict when the cooling will start?

  3. The Neon Madman says:

    If the determined value (0.02C) is less than the margin of error (0.1C) then the value is bullshit. That’s Engineering 101.

  4. jl says:

    “In recorded history.” Wow- which in this case is 135 years. The other 4.5 billion, we have no comparable data for. Sounds like alarmist global warming 101 is not for math wizards or statisticians. And the warmest “period”, not specific years, occurred before SUVs ruined the planet.

  5. Jeffery says:

    j,

    I’ve asked this of you many times but you refuse to answer.

    What was the impact of climate on human civilization 4 billion years ago? How about 4 million years ago? 400,000 years? Even 40,000 years? That’s right, our species is a few hundred thousand years old and our civilization only a few thousand.

    It is quite likely (be reminded, that science deals in probability) the Earth is the warmest it’s been in 100,000 years. Human civilization evolved over the past 10,000 years or so.

    So whining about the climate 4.5 billion years ago is irrelevant.

  6. Hank_M says:

    Whining about the climate today is also irrelevant as are your ridiculous diatribes.

  7. John says:

    Teach the Japan Meterlogical also said it was hottest EVAH!!!
    Still waiting on the UK report
    We have known for over 100 years that greenhouse gases trap infrared radiation

  8. snakeopus121 says:

    Global warming/climate change movement:

  9. drowningpuppies says:

    So, in other words, there is a 62% chance that 2014 was not the warmest year ever.

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