So says a new study
(Daily Mail) The 17-year pause in global warming is likely to last into the 2030s and the Arctic sea ice has already started to recover, according to new research.
A paper in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics – by Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology and Dr Marcia Wyatt – amounts to a stunning challenge to climate science orthodoxy.
Not only does it explain the unexpected pause, it suggests that the scientific majority – whose views are represented by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – have underestimated the role of natural cycles and exaggerated that of greenhouse gases.
The research comes amid mounting evidence that the computer models on which the IPCC based the gloomy forecasts of a rapidly warming planet in its latest report, published in September, are diverging widely from reality.
The pause means there has been no statistically significant increase in world average surface temperatures since the beginning of 1997, despite the models’ projection of a steeply rising trend.
This is in the context of the “stadium wave”, where cycles come and go. You can read more about this over at Judith Curry’s blog. As I always state, we will see what we see.
Then you have this
(The Hockey Schtick) Dr. Jasper Kirkby, head of the CLOUD Experiment at CERN in Geneva notes in the video lecture below that if one extrapolates the current lull in solar activity, an extended period of no sunspots similar to the Maunder Minimum could occur by 2015. The Maunder Minimum was responsible for the Little Ice Age and lasted for 70 years.
Now, this goes back to a 2011 lecture series which highlighted the roll of the Sun in driving climate (which Warmists tend to minimize or ignore). Again, we shall see what we see. What we are seeing is the failure of Warmist models, and talking points, to predict climate. Hence their reliance on yammering about what will happen in 50-100 years, when most will have forgotten the prognostications.
