Happy 3316! US Breaks Record For Days Between Major Landfalling Hurricanes Record

Time to pull out the pirate grog dance. Way back in 2011, Anthony Watts noted a new record for days since a major hurricane (category 3 or greater) made landfall on the United States. This started when Hurricane Wilma struck Florida on October 24th, 2005. During that record breaking season, Climatists told us that the the 2005 season would be the “new normal”. Of course, immediately after that landfalling hurricanes started to dry up.

Dr. Roy Spencer pointed out on October 1st, 2014, that is has been 3264 days since, as hurricane season was winding down. Of course, climahysterics are blaming things like natural variation and luck. Some are even blaming “climate change”. And some are even claiming now, after their previous failed prognostication, that global warming will cause fewer tropical systems. Even the UN IPCC is blowing off their prognostication from their 2007 hysteric report.

Now, many who are looking at the record are only going back to 1900.

If we look back further, all the way to the Civil War era, we see no major hurricanes making landfall from August 11, 1860 to September 8, 1869. That’s 3315 days.

As of today, that record is broken at 3316 days.

What is causing this? You’re guess is as good as mine, which are the same guesses scientists are making. Some have claimed cooling periods are a driver. We had a slight cooling from the mid-40’s into the late 70’s, and activity jumped. But it also fell off after 1971. Warming didn’t really start till 1980. There was decent activity during the 30’s, when there was a big spike. The Civil War era was one of increasing temperatures, as the Little Ice Age ended. There has be a Pause since 1997, yet we had a good amount through 2005.  But then a drop off.

Crossed at Right Wing News.

Read: Happy 3316! US Breaks Record For Days Between Major Landfalling Hurricanes Record »

Bummer: Staple Foods Are Bad For Hotcoldwetdry

The obvious solution? Everyone Else needs to just kill themselves to Save The Planet

(Red Orbit) Decomposing crops could be responsible for one-fourth of the post-summer increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, and this discovery could help scientists better understand and predict how the planet’s vegetation will react to warming temperatures, researchers from Boston University and elsewhere report in a new study.

Scientists have long known that atmospheric CO2 levels drop in the Northern Hemisphere every summer as plants inhale the substance, then climb again when they exhale following their growing season, but the exact reasons for this phenomenon have remained unclear. Now, however, they report in the journal Nature that agricultural production may play a vital role.

“In the Northern Hemisphere, there is a strong seasonal cycle of vegetation,” Mark Friedl, a professor in the Boston University (BU) Department of Earth and Environment and senior author of the new paper, said in a statement Wednesday. “Something is changing about this cycle; the ecosystems are becoming more productive, pulling in more atmospheric carbon during the summer and releasing more during the dormant period.”

Friedl, Gray and their colleagues collected global production data for corn, wheat, rice and soybeans – four crops that together account for nearly two-thirds of all calories consumed worldwide. They discovered that the production of these crops in the Northern Hemisphere above the tropics has more than doubled since 1961, and that the increase growth effectively translates into one billion tons of carbon captured and released each year.

So, obviously, we all need to stop eating.

Actually, this is part of something that has been known for a long time, and used to be a major feature of early UN IPCC reports: namely that agriculture is one of the top causes for the release of greenhouse gases, especially methane. The question is, what do you do about it? Many of the more hardcore Warmists want to not only limit births in 3rd world nations (particularly in Africa, because Leftists are actually rather racist), but reduce the human population, particularly in 3rd world nations.

Read: Bummer: Staple Foods Are Bad For Hotcoldwetdry »

If All You See…

…is an evil carbon pollution infused beer causing hundreds of feet of sea rise, you might just be a Warmist

The blog of the day is Nice Deb, with a post noting Sharyl Attkinson being targeted by the WH and DOJ over her Fast and Furious reporting.

Read: If All You See… »

Say, Will Republicans Need a New Message on Climate Change in 2016?

Actually, I do.  But it is one that is different from what far Left Progressives think the GOP message should be

(Roll Call) Senate Republicans were swept into power vowing to fight the White House’s “war on coal,” but at least one says they need a broader message than “no” in 2016.

“I think there will be a political problem for the Republican Party going into 2016 if we don’t define what we are for on the environment,” Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said. “I don’t know what the environmental policy of the Republican Party is.”

Graham, who worked on a climate change proposal in 2010 with Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., suggested that what worked in the midterms might not work the next time around.

Of course,  there is a big difference between “Climate change” and environmentalism. And,  in case people missed it Graham is not particularly popular with the Conservative base.

Exit polling after the elections showed that nearly 60 percent of voters believe climate change is a “serious problem.”

Of course,  when stacked up against other issues,  it tends to come in last or next to last.

Former South Carolina Republican Rep. Bob Inglis — who founded the Energy and Enterprise Initiative, which seeks to convince conservatives to combat climate change — agrees with Graham.

“If conservatives plan on winning the White House back, we’ve got to have something on the menu that addresses this felt need for action on climate,” he said.

OK,  you have the tenor of the article,  all about how the GOP needs to follow along with their own Progressive members and start Believing and Do Something. I could write something with serious proposals, because their is some overlap regarding alternative energy and such,  but,  I’ve already done that lots of time,  so I suggest the GOP message for 2016 is “well,  if you Warmists believe so strongly then lead the way by example.”

Read: Say, Will Republicans Need a New Message on Climate Change in 2016? »

Upgrading To WordPress 4.0.1

I’m about to upgrade to 4.0.1, so if anything looks a little strange, that’s why. Please let me know. Thanks!

Read: Upgrading To WordPress 4.0.1 »

Say, Remember When Warmists Said “Climate Change” Would Reduce Lake Effect Snow?

This was Warmist Eric Holthaus just two days ago

Global Warming Is Probably Boosting Lake-Effect Snows

In the aftermath of a massive lake-effect snowfall event in western New York state on Tuesday, it’s worth asking: Is climate change playing a role here? Because, I mean, come on. Seventy—seven zero—inches, people. And another huge round is forecast for Thursday, by the way. Buffalo deserves answers.

The short answer is: yes. Global warming is probably juicing lake-effect snows, and we’ve had the data to prove it for quite some time.

Could there be some truth to a warmer world contributing to more lake effect snow? Sure. More research is needed, but, of course, even if true, this in no way proves anthropogenic causation, at least from a global perspective. It could be a land use and/or UHI (urban heat island effect). It could be a case that this is increasing during an 18+ year Pause.

But, hey, what did Warmists used to say?

(The Hockey Schtick) But scientists have, in the past, concluded that global warming causes reduced lake-effect snow, not increases in lake-effect snow:

1) “Trend Reversal in Lake Michigan Contribution to Snowfall” [2012]

A general increase in LCS [lake-contribution snowfall] from the early 1920s to the 1950–80 period [during the 1970’s ice age scare] at locations typically downwind of the lake was found. Thereafter, LCS decreased through the early 2000s, indicating a distinct trend reversal that is not reported by earlier studies. The reasons for this reversal are unclear. The reversal is consistent with observed increasing minimum temperatures during winter months after the 1970s, however.

2) CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW

Thus, there may be little change in the frequency of heavy lake-effect snow in the Lake Superior snowbelt and a substantial decrease in the southern Lake Michigan and Lake Erie snowbelts. Air-temperature [warming] was found to be the primary determining factor in reducing the frequency of heavy lake-effect events in this study…Anticipated regional impacts of climate change on lake-effect snow patterns – suggest almost no change [in lake-effect snowfall] in the northernmost belts but approximately a 50% decrease in southernmost belts.

3) Assessment of Potential Effects of Climate Change on Heavy Lake-Effect Snowstorms Near Lake Erie

…Surface conditions favorable for heavy lake-effect snow decreased in frequency by 50% and 90% for the HadCM2 and CGCM1 [models], respectively, by the late 21st Century. This reduction was due almost entirely to a decrease in the number of occurrences of surface air temperature in the range of −10 to 0°C, which in turn was the result of an increase in average winter air temperatures.

So, which is is? Does global warming cause more lake effect snow or less lake effect snow? The answer from Warmists if you ask them? “Yes.” Because, as we all know, no matter what happens with the weather, it will be blamed on “climate change” caused by the actions of Humanity.

Read: Say, Remember When Warmists Said “Climate Change” Would Reduce Lake Effect Snow? »

Obama Trots Out His Sticky Note Plan

I think by now most of us know that Obama announced that, by Imperial Decree, certain illegals will get some sort of deferment, giving those who already decided to break the rules a chance to “play by the rules”

(UK Daily Mail) President Obama announced a plan Thursday night to mainstream millions of illegal immigrants with an executive order allowing them to stay instead of facing deportation, bringing howls from Republicans who complained about so-called ‘anchor babies’ helping their illegal parents remain in the U.S.

The president calmly explained in a 16-minute speech – subtitled in Spanish – the parameters of what angry Republicans are calling a lawless ‘amnesty.’

‘We’re going to offer the following deal,’ he said: ‘If you’ve been in America for more than five years; if you have children who are American citizens or legal residents; if you register, pass a criminal background check, and you’re willing to pay your fair share of taxes – you’ll be able to apply to stay in this country temporarily, without fear of deportation.’

What’s this “we” stuff?

Of course, this order only lasts 4 years, and can easily be rescinded by the next Republican president. Remember, too, that any Democrats who support this can’t pitch a fit if a Republican president does something similar. What if a President Cruz tells law enforcement to ignore any laws restricting ownership of large capacity magazines, or declares that law enforcement should accept all concealed carry permits across the country? For instance, say a North Carolina resident with a CCP goes to NYC, which has no reciprocity, and has significant restrictions, and Cruz says “hey, no problem, no one can bust you if you are carrying while in NYC”?

https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/535482888121499648

I don’t expect polls to get any better. Carl Eric Scott notes

First, there is the simple issue of democratic say. Who were those representatives who did not agree to any of the earlier immigration bills? They were standing for the opinion and judgment of your fellow citizens. The rules for the game were set. And year after year, immigration reform came up for debate, and for complex reasons, which you can say were bad ones or good, the desired bill never made it through. Such is democracy. But now your fellow citizens are told the rules are not set. They are told to accept your victories when you win by the rules, but that you don’t always have to accept their victories when they so win.

What many are not noting is that this is mostly about Obama picking a fight. He’s a schoolyard bully who enjoys conflict over debate, strife over fellowship. Think about it: he barely reaches out to people in his own party in Congress. He prefers heavy polarization and nasty fights.

That said, what, exactly, is Obama’s plan? Other than some bullet points, there are no details.

There are no details on the background checks. What are the terms? What disqualifies them? Notice that there is no requirement to be able to speak English to be able to converse with lawful citizens. What about taxes?

As far as “play by the rules”, the illegals, whether they came across the border illegally or overstayed their visas, have already broken the rules.

Again, there is a dearth of details. What does he mean by ” cracking down”? Notice that this also ignores cracking down on those illegals not at the border.

Again, details matter. So does action. If he was smart, he would immediately order all agencies involved with illegal immigrants to get tough, to act now. That might make the lawless, unconstitutional executive amnesty a bit more palitable to the majority of Americans who are against his plan. He won’t. Because he wants a fight. That can’t be stressed enough.

Crossed at Right Wing News.

Read: Obama Trots Out His Sticky Note Plan »

If All You See…

…is carbon pollution created extreme wind, you might just be a Warmist

The blog of the day is Da Tech Guy, where Fausta wonders why taxes weren’t an issue during the midterms.

Read: If All You See… »

Voxsplaining Executive Amnesty

Vox’s Ezra Klein gives it the old college try in giving arguments for and against “Obamnesty”

(Vox) For: The president clearly has the power

At this point, fairly few people, even on the right, are arguing that Obama doesn’t have the power to exempt broad classes of people from deportation. President George H.W. Bush granted about 1.4 million unauthorized immigrants a blanket deferral from deportation — that was about 40 percent of America’s unauthorized population, a number similar to what Obama is considering now. And it’s not just Bush: a variety of other presidents have used this power in a variety of other ways.

Except, they were doing it under Congressional authorization based on the 1980’s amnesty, not making it up out of whole cloth. As Jazz Shaw points out, what Obama is looking to do is tell law enforcement to no longer enforce actual law. “This is an executive order to officers of the law to stand down from their duty entirely and ignore criminals who they may – in at least some cases – be able to find and prosecute.” Furthermore, where does Obama get the statutory authority to give pay raises?

Against: The president might have the power — but that doesn’t mean he should use it

“The executive branch is effectively acting in direct defiance of the electoral process,” writes Ross Douthat. “This is where the administration has entered extraordinarily brazen territory.”

Of course, Klein finds that thinking “fuzzy”.

For: It’s sensible and humane

The backdrop to this debate is 11 million unauthorized immigrants live in the United States right now. They work, raise families, pay taxes, start businesses, contribute to their communities — and live under constant, unrelenting fear of deportation.

They commit crimes, they steal social security numbers and identities, ruining countless lives, deflate wages, oh, and how does one start a business without the proper documentation? As far as humane, what about our legal citizens?

Against: The constant, unrelenting fear of deportation is the point

Yes, it is. Obviously, Klein is not happy with the view that criminals should be concerned about being caught.

For: Congress is broken, and that means the president must do more

Whether Congress is broken or not, a separate debate, they are the lawmakers. Otherwise, we might as well be a dictatorship, where the whims of 1 person are forced upon 300+ million citizens.

Against: This could turn paralysis into crisis

This is really what Obama wants. Mr. Nobel Peace Prize prefers strife, conflict, and hyper-partisanship. Along with things being his way or the highway.

We’re either a nation of law, or a nation of whim.

Read: Voxsplaining Executive Amnesty »

Pause Excuse #66: No Pause If We Only Consider Coldest And Warmest Days Of The Year

Have to keep the cult going

(The Hockey Schtick) A new paper published in Environmental Research Letters finds excuse #66 for the 18+ year “pause” of global warming: There’s no “pause” if you look at only the one single warmest and coldest days per year.

According to the authors and the accompanying editorial, if you use a dataset of extreme temperatures “which is not publicly available” and has data from “areas that don’t have many observations” (with extrapolated (modeled) temperatures) and pick out the one single day per year with the highest and lowest temperatures, those sparse one day per year observations are within one standard deviation of the climate model warming predictions.

Of course, if you instead look at observations from the other 364 days per year, the climate models are overheated by a factor of 3-4 times and falsified at confidence levels exceeding 98%+, but that shouldn’t stop anyone from grabbing at straws and believing in the “faux pause,” or that this paper allegedly “results in increased confidence in projections of future changes in extreme temperature.”

It’s hard to keep up with all the excuses. The Hockey Schtick has an updated list here.

Read: Pause Excuse #66: No Pause If We Only Consider Coldest And Warmest Days Of The Year »

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