Surprise: Colder Weather Increases GHG Output

No, really!

From the linked article, at the US Energy Information Administration (BTW, had anyone ever heard of the EIA before?)

In the long term, energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are driven by economic and efficiency trends and changes in the fuel mix. But weather fluctuations, which drive the level of energy use for both heating and cooling, are a very significant factor affecting year-to-year variation in fossil fuel consumption and their resulting emissions.

EIA’s most recent monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), issued on October 10, forecasts U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions for 2014 and 2015 at 5,457 million metric tons (MMmt) and 5,436 MMmt, respectively, both higher than the 2013 emissions level of 5,396 MMmt. The forecasted 1.1% rise in CO2 emissions for 2014 relative to their 2013 level reflects a combination of historical energy use data already in hand for more than half of the year and forecasted energy use for the remaining months.

Very cold weather early this year contributed to an increase in total energy use and CO2 emissions for the first six months of 2014 compared with the same period the year before. EIA ran simulations using the STEO model to estimate how much lower emissions would have been had the weather in the first half of the year instead been more like the previous 10-year (2004-13) average. The results show that using this alternative weather scenario, energy-related CO2 emissions during the first half of 2014 would have only been about 0.4% higher than in the first half of 2013, well below the actual first-half to first-half emissions increase of 2.7%.

If I were a hyperalarmist, I might yammer on about “how’d they pick those years. Cherry picking!!!!” I’d probably need to write it in all caps, too.

Of course, these same buffoons want to decrease the available energy, leaving Other People cold.

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