IPCC Hedges Bets On Warming Pause For Lifetimes

A whole generation has not known any statistically significant warming. Could more generations be without? (via Junk Science)

(Reuters) The IPCC reiterated that a warming trend is “unequivocal”, and some effects would last far beyond the lifetimes of people now alive, such as heat penetrating ever deeper into the oceans.

In other words, the oceans ate their warming, which is very convenient (but doesn’t explain why this didn’t happen during the previous spikes during the Modern Warm Period), and they aren’t quite sure if the current pause will last for several decades (such as the late 40’s through the late 70’s) or longer, but they need a way to Blame Mankind in order to get some of that sweet sweet taxpayer money.

BTW, Ace notes that the NY Times finally realizes that taking Michael Mann’s tree ring based “hockey stick” was a mistake.

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5 Responses to “IPCC Hedges Bets On Warming Pause For Lifetimes”

  1. Jeffery says:

    The Times opinion piece by “climate realist” Richard Muller doesn’t say what you hope it does.

    Muller said the temperature continues to increase, but in fits and starts – the surface temperature record looks like stairsteps.

    Said Muller:

    “My analysis is different. Berkeley Earth, a team of scientists I helped establish, found that the average land temperature had risen 1.5 degrees Celsius over the past 250 years. Solar variability didn’t match the pattern; greenhouse gases did.

    As for the recent plateau, I predicted it, back in 2004. Well, not exactly. In an essay published online then at MIT Technology Review, I worried that the famous “hockey stick” graph plotted by three American climatologists in the late 1990s portrayed the global warming curve with too much certainty and inappropriate simplicity. The graph shows a long, relatively unwavering line of temperatures across the last millennium (the stick), followed by a sharp, upward turn of warming over the last century (the blade). The upward turn implied that greenhouse gases had become so dominant that future temperatures would rise well above their variability and closely track carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.”

  2. blick says:

    The current plateau is certainly not because the environ-control freaks lived a lifestyle that reduced the warming. But they certainly have something to blame — the oceans ate their warming — how convenient. No, “lets back up and check our assumptions and data.” Its always, “lets postulate something bizarre and uncheckable.” Maybe Alien spaceships are syphoning off the surplus heat energy to fuel their home voyage.

  3. Jeffery says:

    The “plateau” is greatly exaggerated, even by former denier scientists such as Dr. Muller. The Earth has continued to warm since 1998 and it’s highly probable that the Earth will continue to warm into the future. Even looking at just the surface temperature records the recent years are the warmest on record, and likely the warmest of the Holocene.

    If the total of your argument is that “enviro-controls freaks still drive cars”, than you have a bit to travel before you unwind the Theory of AGW. The cute “the oceans ate the warming” catch-phrase ignores the fact that the oceans too have been warming.

    “How convenient.” – The ARGO system measures ocean temperatures down to 2000 meters and started coming on line in 2000. It now has thousands of probes scattered throughout the oceans. The data are available to everyone, including denier citizen-scientists. The oceans are warming steadily. Why would you call this “bizarre and uncheckable”?

    The problem with legitimate scientists is that they are conservative in interpreting data, are not good at marketing or messaging and significantly, naively believe that those opposing their results will operate in good faith. But the denier world is not interested in science but only in their “truth”, that AGW is a communist hoax pushed to redistribute wealth.

    You “know” that AGW is false and ignore most of the evidence. Deniers claim they are just not “convinced” by the current evidence, which is why I always ask, “What evidence would you find convincing”? You and I know that your answer (which you will never say aloud) is, “none”.

  4. Monday morning links…

    Boys vs. girls on the math SAT test Film review: Rush How Blackberry blew it Universities – Once upon a time, students’ political leaders kicked against authoritarianism; now they enforce it. How Many People Is Too Many People? Take th…

  5. Jonathan says:

    As long as we stay bogged down in the Denier and Alarmist camps, these discussions are pointless. Even if it’s just 1.5 degrees, it’s warming, OK, everyone stop being pissy about it. Same with the ocean data, we’ve been measuring deep ocean data for decades, and again, though minimal, if they are measuring increased warmth than accept it. I do have some knowledge of oceanographic instrumentation and would caution about being gung-ho about small changes given the size of their error margins. But, that’s another discussion.
    What I found most interesting from the latest IPCC report is their final admittance of the lack of some major variables, clouds, volcanic and sunspots. Though they still stick mightily to the manmade carbon meme, they do confess to just ignoring some data or adding its weight as zero. Didn’t see that before. What I don’t see from the carbon crowd are realistic answers. Even if the US was to cut its carbon footprint, from let’s say coal. Our current output is something like 235 million tons, so we cut to 117 million tons. China alone contributes 4 Billion tons, so we may have sent ourselves into a bigger recession for what, a planet that is still warming and a sea that’s still rising, now where are the funds to help those effected. It doesn’t matter who broke the window anymore, or should those kids have been playing there or maybe we should build a ball field or we need more after school programs, winters coming and we need to fix the window.
    I think we have to start thinking along the lines of how are we going to adapt. Warmer clime, I have no issues, more food is a big plus and it looks like we’ll have the water to back that up. The fear mongering over bigger and badder storms? Never seemed to stop anyone from rebuilding in hurricane alley before, why should it now. Coastal erosion might be a biggie, what with all the population along the coasts. I think the numbers are going to be so big that the government will eventually just throw up its hands. Similar to what it’s doing in places like Cape Hatteras now. Luckily for me, I was never going to be able to afford waterfront property anyways.
    The rest of the earth is already adapting, what are we going to do, keep arguing over what new name to call each other or come up with solutions like we always do?

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