New Election Analysis Shows Trump’s Chances Of Winning Jumping From 3% To Very Close

This has to make a few people in the Hillary camp as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs

(Washington Examiner) The latest vote projection from elections guru Nate Silver has Republican Donald Trump just six electoral votes short of winning and one point away from equaling Hillary Clinton’s popular vote.

The newest Five Thirty Eight survey Trump at 264 and Clinton at 272, two more than needed. It’s the closest in recent weeks.

Silver is famous for making a prediction of victory and that’s nearly close to, Clinton at 51.9 percent and Trump at 48 percent, his closest since the conventions.

The chart shows a huge gain for Trump, recovering from just a 3 percent chance of winning a month ago.

It’s changed a tiny bit in Hillary’s favor overnight, going from 51.9%-48% to 53.3%-47.7%.

Except for a brief time around the GOP convention, Trump’s chances have been pitiful. The slow erosion of Hillary’s chances are very interesting, though, as Trump slowly rises. Quite frankly, for Trump it will most likely all come down to the Monday night debate (which never should have been scheduled against a football game, even if it is just Atlanta vs New Orleans, not a big ratings hit). If he does poorly, he’s most likely done. If he holds his own or defeats Hillary, well, that could really boost his chances.

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12 Responses to “New Election Analysis Shows Trump’s Chances Of Winning Jumping From 3% To Very Close”

  1. john says:

    The most recent Silver analysis gives Clinton 280 votes and gives her a 57% chance to win

  2. Hank_M says:

    Wrong again John. But you are consistent.
    Latest from Silver shows Hillary with 275 and Trump with 262.6 votes, 53.3% chance of Hillary winning.
    Looks like the crooked one’s chances are diminishing by the day.

  3. Very interesting. Two different links from the same site on the same day show 2 different metrics.

  4. drowningpuppies says:

    FiveThirtyEight boasts that they update whenever new data is available.

  5. Jeffery says:

    Electoral Votes: 282 – 256, Clinton over Trump, at 1:33 PM Eastern

    Chance of winning: 56.5% to 43.5%, Clinton over Trump

    Trump will overwhelm Clinton in the debate, and get another boost, as long as he can stop himself from calling her bitch or cunt. Clinton will win on points but Trump will clobber her stylewise. The people want Trump over Clinton. The people have given up on politics as usual.

  6. Jeffery says:

    Looks like the crooked one’s chances are diminishing by the day.

    That’s just not true. Clinton has been a shitty campaigner and Crooked Don has been pretty disciplined since his new handler made him read her words off his teleprompter. So the crooked one has made this a very competitive race, to the corporate media’s delight!

    Crooked Don’s crooked shenanigans with the crooked Trump Foundation won’t hurt him unless he takes the lead – then the media will push the story to bring him back to Earth.

    Other politicians have gone to prison over what Trump did, but the media will hardly mention it. Why don’t we all start charities, make ourselves CEO/president, pay ourselves a comfy salary (perfectly legal, like the MO gubernatorial candidate did – $175,000/year plus bonus) or disburse the funds to pay personal liabilities (illegal, like Trump did, >$200,000) or to buy baubles (illegal, like Trump did, $10s of thousands).

    You know why everyone doesn’t do it? Because normal folks go to jail.

  7. drowningpuppies says:

    Apparently the little guy who’s more retarded than john is not a Donald Trump fan.

  8. david7134 says:

    It will be funny watching him say President Trump.

  9. Liam Thomas says:

    The people have given up on politics as usual.

    Wow such wisdom. The people dont care about politics….Or most anyways….the people want solutions to problems….or most anyways…..

    For you it might be politics, for me its solutions…..I dont pretend to believe that Trump actually has any solutions…..but then I know Hillary doesnt…just more of what got us from 2008 to This afternoon.

    Terrorists killing people in America….a Military that cant fly or fix its own airplanes….The marines have grounded their own pilots because they fly so rarely due to budget cuts that they are not safe to fly…..The middle east literally in flames…..Obama sending drone missile thru the windows of entire neighborhoods and refusing to call these people hes pissed of RADICALS….

    Just like when The marines were Bombed in Beirut people forget it was because a battleship set out in the bay and lobbed 2000 lb shells into Beirut neighborhoods.

    There are consequences for every president…….Right now Hillary is facing an Obama hangover….and the bottom line is this…..

    ENGLAND who started POLITICAL CORRECTNESS in the world….pulled out of the EU because of MUSLIMS….America is wanting to pull out of Obama/Hillary/POLITICAL CORRECTNESS as they see millions sneaking into this country and now were starting to see radicalization of Americans.

    Think about that for a minute….RADICALIZED AMERICANS….blowing people up, knifing people, trying to behead people…..

    STYLE AND SUBSTANCE doesnt matter any more to a majority of Americans who dont have a (D) in front of their name……And thats why Trump as incompetent as he might be is pulling slowly into the lead.

  10. Liam Thomas says:

    Think about that for a minute….RADICALIZED AMERICANS….blowing people up, knifing people, trying to behead people…..

    But then we know that the left defends this….Hell they encourage it…cheer it…..Barak Obama launching his presidential bid in the home of Bill Ayers Weatherman underground bomber who got off on a technicality….A radical who murdered Americans with his bombs……

    The left sees nothing wrong with jihadists blowing up people or BLM destroying other peoples property because of some legitimate injustices they might be experiencing.

    That is what is fueling Trumps rally…….and the fact that Hillary is sitting back and calling 62 percent of America(the non democratic base)DEPLORABLES….was the warning shot across the bow for most….Pundits say no…..taken in the context of everything else Ive written I say not only yes but Hell yes.

  11. john says:

    Looks like Teach might have jinxed Trump todays polls have all opened up Clintons lead

  12. john says:

    Hillary has continued to build her lead.
    Hank YOU were wrong I was giving THE most update numbers.

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