Darned nature, just doing it’s own thing
Rules of thumb for climate change turned upside down
With a new analysis of land regions, ETH climate researcher are challenging the general climate change paradigm that dry regions are getting drier and wet regions are getting wetter. In some regions they are encountering divergent trends.
Based on models and observations, climate scientists have devised a simplified formula to describe one of the consequences of climate change: regions already marked by droughts will continue to dry out in the future climate. Regions that already have a moist climate will experience additional rainfall. In short: dry gets drier; wet gets wetter (DDWW).
However, this formula is less universally valid than previously assumed.
The hell you say!
The evaluation shows no obvious trend towards a drier or wetter climate across three-quarters of the land are. There are solid trends for the remaining quarter. However, only half of this surface area follows the DDWW principle, i.e. one-eighth of the total landmass, while the trends seem to contradict this rule over the other half.
Some regions which should have become wetter according to the simple DDWW formula have actually become drier in the past – this includes parts of the Amazon, Central America, tropical Africa and Asia. On the other hand, there are dry areas that have become wetter: parts of Patagonia, central Australia and the Midwestern United States.
In some areas it cooperates, in others, not so much. Sounds like mostly natural variability to me.
I do see one problem in the study, which should be noted. The “researchers compared data from between 1948 and 1968 and 1984 to 2004.” That is not a great comparison, since the former was a period of cooling and the latter was a period of warming. At least till 1998, but we have still have had elevated temperatures. At the end of the day, though, this highlights how climahysterics rely on computer models spitting out preconceived notions to uphold their far far left policies.
