Per Climate Models, The Observations Must Be Wrong

A pithy post by Dr. Roy Spencer

95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong

I’m seeing a lot of wrangling over the recent (15+ year) pause in global average warming…when did it start, is it a full pause, shouldn’t we be taking the longer view, etc.

These are all interesting exercises, but they miss the most important point: the climate models that governments base policy decisions on have failed miserably.

I’ve updated our comparison of 90 climate models versus observations for global average surface temperatures through 2013, and we still see that >95% of the models have over-forecast the warming trend since 1979, whether we use their own surface temperature dataset (HadCRUT4), or our satellite dataset of lower tropospheric temperatures (UAH):

(I’m keeping the graphic outside the blockquote in order to make it a bit larger)

He goes on to note that whether or not humans are the cause or not, the observations show that the warming is not that bad, and not that dire of an issue, and should have minimal policy implications. Regardless of how much mankind causes (Warmists say most or all, Dr. Spencer is more in the 50% range, I’m in the 10-20% range), there really is no doom. Which, of course, is why Warmists have moved on to the 50-100 years doomsaying meme. But, a 0.1C increase over the long term isn’t really scary. Except to unhinged Warmists, who still won’t change their own behavior.

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5 Responses to “Per Climate Models, The Observations Must Be Wrong”

  1. john says:

    2013 was the 4th warmest year on record. I guess because it was not THE warmest year on record coldists will say it IS the beginning of global cooling. Soichi has 60F temps which most think is a tad warm for a winter Olympics

  2. Zachriel says:

    Spencer predicts about 2°C of warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2.

  3. jl says:

    Hey John- Do you know what the definition of “on record” means? Of course you don’t . Detailed temperature records of the kind to be able to say “warmest or coolest on record” have only been around since 1880 or so. So saying warmest, or coldest means you’re only talking about a 135 year time span. Compared to the over 4 billion years the earth has been here, it’s really of no significance at all. A few warm (or cold) years in 135 out of 4 billion does not make a trend.

  4. Blick says:

    Dr. Spencer and Captain, I find it interesting that the chart begins in 1983. Does this mean that the Optimum Climate for Humans begins that year? That would make the previous 100 years of weather records Sub-optimum? Until the Warmists justify and come to a consensus of what is Optimum Climate and what year that occured; I have to be a coldist skeptic on the whole warming apocalypse.

  5. Toasty_Warm_Gumballs says:

    Right on Blick. What is optimum? What are they trying to return us to? And why?
    Explain how America’s actions would solve for that. Explain then how you can justify your optimum when another country might have a higher or lower optimum. Who wins?
    Why is one optimum level better than another?

    Everything that the cult of CAGW has proposed, predicted, projected, suspected has not come true, can not be seen, has failed miserably.

    So, why should anything J says be even recognized as even cogent thought?

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