Warming Still On Pause Per Met Office Data

Will Warmists still maintain that the deep oceans ate their warming, or come up with some fun new excuse?

(UK Daily Mail) The global warming ‘pause’ has now lasted for almost 17 years and shows no sign of ending – despite the unexplained failure of climate scientists’ computer models to predict it.

The Mail on Sunday has also learnt that because 2013 has been relatively cool, it is very likely that by the end of this year, world average temperatures will have crashed below the ‘90 per cent probability’ range projected by the models.

These also provide the main basis for the sweeping forecasts of a perilous, hotter world in a new report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The graph above covers the period June 1997 to July 2013. It was drawn using the official Met Office ‘HadCRUT4’ monthly data for world average temperatures, and shows the lack of a warming trend.

Warmists will say that 16 years does not a trend make. Yet, this whole hysteria arrived from a short term increase starting in the late 1970’s and going to 1988, when James Hansen testified to Congress that the Earth is doomed. The warming only continued in a statistically significant fashion for a few more years.

PS: This doesn’t deny that the Earth has seen warming. It has. This is what happens during a natural/mostly natural warm period. The argument is on causation.

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12 Responses to “Warming Still On Pause Per Met Office Data”

  1. Jeffery says:

    “Cherry picking is the act of selectively using data from a series to confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of data that may contradict that position.”

    If your hypothesis dissolves by moving your starting or ending point one year…. you just might be a cherry-picker.

    Global cooling from 1998 to 2013 of 0.25 degrees, yet global warming from 1999 to 2013!

    Finally, you post data that you claim show no warming, yet you claim there IS warming, but that you are only questioning the cause. Which is it?

  2. Jeffery says:

    What is the cause of “natural” warming? (N.B. – natural is not another word for magical. Rapid warming in the opposite direction of the “natural” trend should have a cause.)

  3. That’s the Met Office data. Other sets show slight cooling, at least from 2000 or 2001 on. Others show a slight increase of 0.14f, as I’ve posted numerous times. Regardless, this all shows that the Warmists models are utter crap. And now Warmists are desperately attempting to create an excuse.

    What caused the quick warming in the mid 1880’s? Certainly wasn’t fossil fuels. How about 1930’s? How about the cooling trend from the late 40s to late 70s? The very fact that you immediately dismiss natural forces, which have drive climate for the lifespan of the earth, shows you’re not interested I’m science.

    Have you given up all use of fossil fuels and made your life carbon neutral?

  4. Jeffery says:

    I did not dismiss natural causes. Obviously, previous significant climate changes were not caused by man’s adding CO2 to the atmosphere. The current rapid warming episode almost certainly is.

    Science deniers either do not understand statistics or intentionally try to mislead others.

    Do you really believe that long range climate models are intended to project the surface temperature a few years into the future? (Understand that the surface temperature is about 10% of the Earth’s heat content).

    Take a look at the surface temperature record over a longer time frame (http://www.scilogs.de/wblogs/gallery/16/AR5_temp_obs.png).

    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!” — Upton Sinclair

    • Veseng says:

      Why is this true: “The current rapid warming episode almost certainly is.” (man made) Which episode looks to have stopped, for now anyway.

      But the actual problem I have with the warmists is at least twofold:

      1. The current data set(s) are suspect as shown by those pesky released emails. Remember the “hide the decline” threads.

      2. The models used by the IPCC are obviously bogus, they don’t predict the past and don’t account for the last 15 +/- years of flat to declining temperatures, but as the data sets are suspect (see #1) we don’t really know. But the Arctic Ice is growing faster than we’ve seen in a long time.

      And I would ask, what is the ideal temperature for our planet, it has been both warmer and cooler in the past?

  5. gitarcarver says:

    Science deniers either do not understand statistics or intentionally try to mislead others.

    Yeah, but dealing with warmists who don’t understand the science is a cross we all must bear.

  6. kevin says:

    Bah. You guys are idiots. It is easily two tenths of a degree hotter in my house right now than it was just ten years ago. I’m sweating bullets. In another decade, it might be 3! tenths of a degree hotter than it was 10 years ago. Mankind simply cannot survive with that kind of heat. WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!

    Oh wait, I just found the thermostat. Ok. Nevermind.

  7. I know how you feel, Kevin. If the temp upstairs hits 73.2 I can’t sleep and feel like melting

  8. Jeffery says:

    1. The current, so-called “pause” is based on the same temperature record you think is faked. So you trust the data so long as it supports your position, but if it shows an increase, you shout “e-mails”! Got it. Question: Why would the data fakers fake a “pause”?

    2. The current “pause” still falls within the range of the models. But as you say, the “pause” may be faked too, so why even bring it up?

    Arctic ice is “not growing faster than we’ve seen in a long time.” Assuming you mean ice extent, the 2013 minimum extent WAS greater than the record low of 2012, but was still the 6th lowest since 1979. Of course, ice extent starts to increase each October as the arctic cools, but that data are yet to be reported as far as I know.

    • Veseng says:

      Arctic ice extent this year (2013) is ~30% greater than in 2012 when various warmists were predicting an ice free arctic for 2013. That is rather a rapid growth and it was growing since late August. NASA data, published by the UK Daily Mail here: http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/09/28/article-2415191-185A43E400000578-982_640x365.jpg

      When did the arctic ice increase some 30% in a year in the recent past? And did the climate models show it for the past or for this year? I don’t think so.

      Also, antarctic is increasing as well.

      The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year. According to the UK Daily Mail more than 20 yachts that had planned to sail it have been left ice-bound and a cruise ship attempting the route was forced to turn back.

      Given the temperature record was always massaged to show higher temperatures, one wonders if the warmists are covering up a cooling trend which would contradict the models even more strongly. But a 15 year pause is clearly not within the range of the models given the continued increase in CO2 levels.

      I conclude from the bogus temperature data, the evidence of the ice extent at the poles this year, the model inaccuracies (Yes, you disagree, so what) , and the obvious politicization of the IPCC that there is not enough actual knowledge to use the IPCC report to adopt policies that condemn millions to remain in poverty in the 3rd world and to reduce the living standards of the rest of the world.

      And no answer to why the so-called warming is obviously man made. Or what is the ideal temperature for the Earth and us humans on it?

  9. Jeffery says:

    gitar,

    What are the 3 best examples of scientists not understanding climate science that you can muster?

  10. Jeffery says:

    The “data” you linked was a couple of photos, not data. See:

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    and please point out where the arctic ice extent started increasing in August.

    Yes, ice extent is greater this year than last. So? Ice extent dropped 25% from 2011 to 2012. Were you commenting about how fast ice was melting at that time?

    Why is the warming man-made?

    It is warming (you deny that, but OK).

    Humans have been adding CO2 to the atmosphere (42% more than in 1900).

    CO2 is a greenhouse gas.

    Satellites measuring the wavelengths of infrared radiation being emitted back to space demonstrate that CO2 is blocking some of that radiation, consistent with the Theory of AGW.

    Satellites measuring the temperature of the upper atmosphere show cooling, consistent with the Theory of AGW.

    There is no such beast as the ideal temperature. What we do know is that all of human civilization developed during the Holocene when average global temperatures stayed in a range of about 1 degree C. If we are lucky, the Earth will only warm by 3 degrees by 2100.

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