Pirate's Cove

Obviously, the NY Times prefers this since Orange Man Bad was pushing for a deal which includes security guarantees

Ukraine Pursues a Weapons Buildup More Potent Than Any Security Guarantee

Ukraine is pursuing a multibillion-dollar arms buildup that would be funded by Europe, seeing it as the best chance of ensuring the country’s long-term survival as American assistance dries up and Western security guarantees remain uncertain.

Kyiv wants not only to sustain its army through the current war but also to make it the backbone of any postwar settlement, with the goal of deterring Russia from invading again. As Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, recently put it: “Ukraine must become a steel porcupine, undigestible for potential invaders.”

At the center of these efforts is a new NATO-backed procurement system that will channel European funds into buying U.S. weapons for Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky hopes the system will enable $1 billion in purchases each month, with a particular focus on acquiring U.S.-made Patriot air-defense systems to expand Kyiv’s limited arsenal.

The new system would both help replace U.S. arms donations that President Trump has ended and also increase and streamline deliveries of weapons to Ukraine over time. A first sale of cruise missiles and GPS navigation kits, worth $825 million, was announced on Thursday.

So, instead of EU and American security guarantees, they just want to keep the money train going, and at a much higher level? What happens if they have all these weapons but do not have the people to use them? Zelenkyy stated that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed, but, many estimate as many as 100,000. And this doesn’t account for civilian casualties and wounded. What happens when the money dries up? What happens when the EU finally realizes that lots of the money is not going to weapons and troops, but, to line the pockets of Zelenskyy, the politicians, and the Oligarchs?

Kyiv is also betting on its booming domestic defense industry, which has already delivered drones that swarm the battlefield and is now working to produce more powerful weapons. This month, Ukraine said it had completed the development and begun production of its first domestically made long-range cruise missile.

Funny that they can do all this when Russia is at war with Ukraine. What happens if Russia decides to hit the means of production? Also funny that Ukraine sells grain to Russia, considering they are war. It’s almost like the two nations are playing and just bleeding NATO nations dry.

How far this military buildup can go remains uncertain. European nations that are already grappling with budget strains may struggle to sustain the level of funding Ukraine says it needs, and Kyiv’s army must address persistent manpower shortages to become a truly deterrent force.

Exactly.

Ukraine is hoping it will soon be able to rely on its new missile, which is called Flamingo. On paper, it can fly more than 1,800 miles with a 2,500-pound payload, according to experts, meaning the missile could strike Moscow and Russian cities far beyond. Its effectiveness on the battlefield, however, remains untested.

If they hit Moscow Russia will go full scorched earth, rather than just trying to take regions like Donbass, or worse.

Ukraine’s belief that it needs to provide for its own defense is rooted in the hard experience of watching past security assurances collapse when put to the test. Ukrainian officials point to the Budapest Memorandum, a pledge signed in 1994 that was meant to protect the country after it gained independence.

Under that accord, Ukraine gave old Soviet nuclear weapons back to Russia in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the United States and Britain. But the deal did not detail those guarantees and offered no promise of military support in case of attack. Ukraine says the lack of specificity gave Russia free rein to attack, as it did starting in 2014.

It also doesn’t help when you have squishy Democrats in office in the US, combined with weak leaders in the EU, who are no deterrent to Putin’s aggression. He saw no concern after getting strongly worded postcards from Obama/Biden after taking Crimea in 2014.

Fire Point, the Ukrainian defense firm behind the Flamingo missile, said it would welcome Western funding to speed up production. The company says it currently makes one missile per day, but plans to increase output sevenfold by this fall. Ukraine has also developed a short-range ballistic missile named Sapsan that recently entered production.

“The best guarantor of the Ukrainian independence is our own missile program,” Mr. Skrypchenko said. “When we’ll have several hundred ballistic missiles with the range capable to hit targets in Moscow, it will be a completely different game.”

But, what if Russia nails the fields of missiles at the start of an invasion? What then? Hits the production factory? This is all great in theory, but, Putin is the wildcard. As is the continued funding from Europe.