It’s a good question, asked by the CBC’s Mike Crawley (from a Warmist point of view)
(CBC) Premier Kathleen Wynne’s showpiece action plan for tackling climate change will be unveiled today and it will have an impact on the way every single Ontarian consumes energy, whether through transportation, home heating, or manufacturing.
Wynne is making the fight to reduce carbon emissions a pillar of her premiership. Her climate change action plan is so sweeping, it can’t help but become a crucial ballot question when Ontarians decide whether to re-elect the Liberals in 2018.
And everyone will be dragged along whether they care or not. What will it take the plan to succeed?
1. Actually reduce carbon emissions
The whole point of an action plan to tackle climate change is to reduce the greenhouse-gas emissions that cause climate change. The Wynne government has not only agreed to specific emission reduction targets at an international conference, it has enshrined the targets in law.
The transportation and buildings sector will supposedly be the most on the hook. And, certainly, the energy sector. Which means higher costs for citizens. But, hey, don’t expect this to be one of those revenue neutral programs, where the fees/taxes/penalties put on everything will be refunded to citizens. Nope. They’ll use it for other CO2 reducing programs.
2. Not raise costs too drastically
Wynne and the Liberals are telling Ontarians the climate change plan will cost the average household just $13 extra per month. There’s plenty of skepticism about this analysis. By contrast, if you take the Liberals’ projection that cap and trade will generate $1.9 billion a year for the treasury, and assume those costs are passed on to the province’s five million households, that works out to $31 a month each.
With the average hydro bill in Ontario already up nearly 40 per cent since 2010, new price hikes to fuel your car and heat your home won’t win the climate change action plan a lot of friends. The success of the plan will depend on whether it makes too many people feel they’re paying too much.
Good luck with that. When has a government program actually come close to projections? The vast majority are way, way over.
It also has to appeal to big business and the little guy, as the third point. Of course, this is really about politics
4. Help the Liberals win the next election
Tackling climate change polls well with voters right now. It’s something most people say they want done. But whether Ontarians will actually vote for a party because it’s willing to take strong action on climate change remains to be seen. It’s also an open question about whether the Liberals are truly taking strong action.
At the end of the day, climate change is always about politics, not science. Will Ontarians respond positively? Passing all sorts of Hotcoldwetdry rules and laws worked out beyond poorly for politicians in Australia. Will it work out well in Ontario? Will citizens appreciate the ever rising costs? And here’s something to watch for: stretching the pain down the road a bit, in order for the Liberals to win the next election and become entrenched before the pain truly hits.
