Bummer: Seas Could Continue Doom Rise Even Without More Warming

Interesting. After almost two decades of statistically insignificant warming, which utterly negated the majority of Warmist computer models, we now have another prophesy of doom

Sea levels may rise even without further warming
It may take centuries to reach peak water levels given what past records show us

Wait, past records? So, this has happened before? What caused it back then, and why can’t the reasons be the same during the Modern Warm Period?

Seventy per cent of the Earth is covered by water and three quarters of the world’s great cities are on the coast. Ever-rising sea levels pose a real threat to more than a billion people living beside the sea. As the climate warms, this is becoming a greater threat every year.

As I’ve noted ad nauseum, the current sea rise is exactly average. The 20th Century was at 7 inches. The average since the end of the great pulsewater melt is 6-8 inches per century. A warm period should see much higher than 7 inches.

How do we measure sea level? It is not so simple: the sea surface is a moving target, rising and falling with the tides and weather. Ocean currents are dynamically linked to sea surface topography and changes in currents and water density result in sea level changes.

If it’s not so easy, then how are Warmists prognosticating anywhere from 3 feet by 2100 to 6 feet, some even yammering about 40 feet or more?

Andrew Parnell of the School of Mathematics and Statistics UCD is a co-author of a recent paper in the world-renowned journal Science that describes a reconstruction of temperature patterns during the last interglacial period, about 120,000 years ago. The temperature estimates are similar to today, but sea levels during this period were 6-9m higher than present levels.

This is worrying, as it indicates that global warming may lead to a continuing rise in water level. We may be committed to substantial sea level rise over the coming decades even if there is no further warming of the atmosphere.

This brief bit of info in the final two paragraphs doesn’t quite bear out the doomy prognostication of the headline and first paragraph, but, um, yeah, they’re saying it might maybe possibly we’re not sure but we need to scare you more come to pass a 19.685 feet to 29.5276 feet rise in the seas, obviously because of Mankind’s carbon pollution.

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One Response to “Bummer: Seas Could Continue Doom Rise Even Without More Warming”

  1. JGlanton says:

    OMG, Andrew Parnell, mathematician extraordinaire from Dublin, might want to take a wee gander at the sea level trends for his own city:


    Let’s read the caption, just for giggles:

    The mean sea level trend is 0.07 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence
    interval of +/- 0.42 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from
    1938 to 2009 which is equivalent to a change of 0.02 feet in 100 years.

    Zero point two feet in one hundred years. Somebody might want to leave the modeling computer desk, stick a toe in the water, drink some Irish whiskey, and wait for wisdom to come.