Still No US Hurricane Landfall From Arthur

The last true, confirmed, without a doubt hurricane to make landfall in the Unites States was Ike, back in 2008. The closest was Issac last year, but it could be argued that the sustained winds were not at hurricane force at landfall. Sandy’s sustained winds were nit hurricane strenght, either. What about Arthur?

(WRAL) The eye wall of Hurricane Arthur  came ashore at Morehead City just before 11 p.m. with maximum wind gusts up to 100 mph and sustained winds of 67 mph. The storm was headed NE at 18 mph and was expected to pick up speed and continue to move away from North Carolina through the night.

WRAL is the preeminent North Carolina station when it comes to weather, and 67 does not equal a hurricane.

That’s not to imply that a tropical storm, especially one with 67mph sustained winds with gusts to 100 is not dangerous: it is. Hey, I’ve been through it many times, and it is no fun. But, Arthur was not a hurricane at landfall.

I’m not even going to get into all the wackos linking Arthur to “climate change”. Mostly since I’m still without internet.

Hoping everyone came through it OK. Hard to tell without TV and the ‘net.

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10 Responses to “Still No US Hurricane Landfall From Arthur”

  1. Jeffery says:

    Just so you don’t forget what’s important: The Earth continues to warm from the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by our burning fossil fuels.

    Are you trying to make the point that global warming is resulting in fewer hurricanes?

  2. jl says:

    That’s a good one, J, because the hoaxers were trying to tell us that an increase in CO2 was going to cause more frequent and more severe hurricanes, and whoops, the opposite has happened. Just trying to point out the total failure on the predictions front, including the biggest of all, no warming.

  3. Jeffery says:

    j,

    You’re confused or dishonest, or both. Climate scientists (since the 1890s) have been telling us that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere will cause surface warming. The Earth is still warming. Even the Teach admits as much (some days).

  4. Better_Be_Gumballs says:

    Hey J, once again that just because YOU say it, does not make it true. And, while adding a bit more CO2 to the atmosphere will cause a warming, the warming curve is a logarithmic one. You should know that being the eminent CO2 climate scientist. Right?

    And thus, all the extra warming we were going to get out of it, we have already.

    And, once again, and again, we ask you to provide the proof that the earth is “continuing” to warm. If you want to point to the start of the 1900’s, then I can point to the start of the Roman Warm Period. If you want to start at 500,000 years ago, I can start 1,500,000 years ago. Each time, you show a warming in your curve, I can show a cooling in mine.

    Thus, your warming is nixed by my cooling. Thus… no proof.

    That’s science.

    Until there is solid, verifiable, repeatable proof that there has been no cooling… then we can say, that there probably has been warming (due to mankind).

    Now, as we all know and agree (except for a small minority) that man’s actions, and pollution, do add pollution and particulates in to the atmosphere that does help retain heat. Yet, there are also particulates and pollution that will help reflect incoming solar radiation. Much like volcanic eruptions will do.

  5. Jeffery says:

    g1,

    You are right, just because I say it doesn’t make it so. But because nearly all climate scientists, national scientific academies and bodies also say it’s true, you should at least consider it.

    But you won’t because you’re a science Denier. But that’s OK, there have always been science Deniers. There is still a Flat Earth Society, the Discovery Institute in Seattle that still finds a few scientists to rail against evolution, the Heartland Institute to Deny climate science and millions of Americans believe the Earth is 5600 to 10,000 years old, and on and on.

    That the Earth has warmed and cooled before doesn’t mean that the Earth isn’t warming now because of increased greenhouse gases. In fact, that’s rather a childish argument.

    Below I’ve listed a few facts to see if we all agree with the basics. No value judgments, nothing about causation.

    Facts:

    During the past century, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased from 280 ppm to 400 ppm.
    CO2 is a greenhouse gas – it absorbs and re-releases infrared radiation.
    The source of this CO2 is fossil fuels – gas, coal and oil.
    The concentration of CO2 in the oceans has increased, lowering the pH slightly.
    The Earth’s mean global atmospheric temperature as warmed about 1.4 degrees F during this time.
    The oceans’ heat content has increased steadily.
    Sea levels have increased.
    Arctic ice, Greenland ice sheet, glaciers, Antarctic ice sheet have all decreased in volume.
    Antarctic sea ice has increased slightly.

  6. How cute, Jeff, creating causation out of thin air. The oceans put out 16 times more CO2 than mankind. Do they not share more blame? In your world, of course not. You’ve bought into this progressive fantasy of man induced Hotcoldwetdry, and, despite failing to live your life in accordance with your beliefs, you won’t give it up.

  7. Better_Be_Gumballs says:

    During the past century, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased from 280 ppm to 400 ppm.

    Yes, but that is not a causation for anything nor really means anything.

    CO2 is a greenhouse gas – it absorbs and re-releases infrared radiation.

    Again, we all agree on that, but you refuse to accept that the warming is logarithmic and the warming gained from increasing CO2 is maximized. But again, this does not prove global warming.

    The source of this CO2 is fossil fuels – gas, coal and oil.

    Completely and wholly and utterly FALSE. You are right in that burning of carbohydrates releases CO2. But not all CO2 is from the burning of carbohydrates.

    The concentration of CO2 in the oceans has increased, lowering the pH slightly.

    Again, that means nothing and has not been shown to be caused by CO2 in the atmosphere. The potential for some transference is correct. Also, the ocean has been way more acidic in the past. And, the slight change does nothing at all to anything.

    The Earth’s mean global atmospheric temperature as warmed about 1.4 degrees F during this time.

    Oh, you mean since the last massive global cooling event? So, this warming could be a normal return to “normal” temperatures? Again, you show no causality. And, since what “time”?

    The oceans’ heat content has increased steadily.

    Since coming off a massive global cooling event, sure. But, the oceans are also not continuing to warm.

    Sea levels have increased.

    Well, when you melt a world full of ice, then sea levels do tend to rise.

    Arctic ice, Greenland ice sheet, glaciers, Antarctic ice sheet have all decreased in volume.

    Categorically false.

    Antarctic sea ice has increased slightly.

    But then you just said above that it decreased. Which is it? Antarctic ice extent is the largest compared to the average gathered over recent years.

    That the Earth has warmed and cooled before doesn’t mean that the Earth isn’t warming now because of increased greenhouse gases.

    You are correct here. But then, you can’t prove IT IS!!! There is no way to prove causation as there are thousands of other factors affecting the climate, not including the variable “time”.

  8. Better_Be_Gumballs says:

    Hmmm.. Weather Channel.com shows that the storm was a 100mph Cat2 hurricane when it made landfall across Beaufort and The Outer Banks.
    http://tinyurl.com/nzpyz9k

    This is real cool. animated gif of the storms whole life.
    http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2014/Post-Tropical-Cyclone-Arthur?map=radar
    And wow.. does it take off once it gets in to the cool water.

    But, it is still just a CAT2 Hurricane (if in fact weatherchannel is correct) and not a CAT3.

  9. Jeffery says:

    g1,

    Thanks for responding.

    As I said, I wasn’t addressing any causation; I was just wanting to establish a baseline for discussion.

    I was careful to differentiate between the Antarctic Ice Sheet and Antarctic Sea Ice. The ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland are melting, as is Arctic ice, as are many glaciers. The Antarctic sea ice is increasing.

    The natural carbon cycle kept CO2 between 200 and 280 ppm for at least half a million years. Analysis of carbon isotope residues prove the increase is from the burning of fossil fuels. http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2012/03/14/3452867.htm

    Yes, the oceans are warming. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/website-archive/trenberth.papers-moved/Balmaseda_Trenberth_Kallen_grl_13.pdf

    Yes, the sea level is rising faster now than at any time in the past 2000 years. http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html

    We agree that the Earth’s atmosphere has warmed about 1.4F in the past century. https://www2.ucar.edu/climate/faq/how-much-has-global-temperature-risen-last-100-years

    Teach – As I said I’m not addressing or suggesting any causation. Just establishing a set of facts to agree on.

  10. Better_Be_Gumballs says:

    The natural carbon cycle is still functioning just fine. CO2 has fluctuated quite a bit over time with us being at very low levels currently.
    http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/co2_temperature_historical.png

    Global ocean temps have not done much since early 2000s
    http://www.climate4you.com/images/NCDC%20SST%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1979%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif

    Not sure where you are seeing an increasing sea level rise at… but over time there isnt one.
    http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2013_rel8/sl_ns_global.png

    And if you look at historical contexts, our current level is at near max (according to current theories)
    http://www.teachingboxes.org/seaLevel/lessons/lesson4_SeaLevelCurveGraph_files/image002.jpg
    And that rise of late is no different than previous climbs out of ice ages.

    And yes, we agree, that based on current data (that is subject to change of course based on current issues discovered in the land based record) our temperatures have risen about 1.4F over the last century.

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