Pirate's Cove

It begins. Every year about this time, with hurricane season starting June 1, the hysterics trot Crazy out

The mid-Atlantic region could see fewer hurricanes this year, but climate change could still make them worse

The mid-Atlantic region is expected to see lower than average hurricane activity this year, according to predictions by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service.

NOAA officials predict eight to 14 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes. During a news conference Thursday, the agency said it predicts one to three major hurricanes to form in the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricanes have wind speeds above 74 mph, while major hurricane winds top 111 mph. The predictions are for formation, not landfall. In 2025, five hurricanes formed in the Atlantic, but none made landfall in the U.S.

The expected decrease in typical storm activity is due to El Niño, which NOAA officials said has a 98% chance of forming this summer. El Niño is expected to bring strong atmospheric winds, known as shear, which act to break up the formation of hurricanes.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” Ken Graham, NOAA’s National Weather Service Director, said.

OK. Then way down in the article

Climate scientists say the warming oceans supply more fuel for the seasonal storms. For that reason, global warming is causing more intense tropical storms and hurricanes, which when they hit land produce stronger winds and heavier rain.

In the past five years, climate change has increased the intensity of more than 95% of all hurricanes, said Daniel Gilford, a meteorologist and atmospheric scientist with Climate Central.

“And so there is this back and forth interplay between the El Niño suppressing the storms and the warm waters available to supercharge the storms,” Gilford said. “When a storm does spin up, it will see those warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean … and it will start to grow, and it could intensify and become a very major storm indeed. There is a ton of warmth out there for these hurricanes to take advantage of if they’re able to kind of get around the [wind] sheer constraint.”