After peaking as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds, Super Typhoon Ragasa made landfall in the southern Chinese city of Yangjiang in Guangdong Province on September 24 as a Category 3 storm with winds of 120 mph (195 km/h). Ragasa is being blamed for at least 29 deaths and damages in the hundreds of millions of dollars, according to insurance broker Aon. A study released today as part of a new initiative at Imperial College London called the Climate Damage Tracker, which calculates the human and economic costs of climate change, found that climate change boosted Typhoon Ragasa’s winds by 7% and rainfall by 12% at landfall. This is equivalent to intensifying the storm from a weak to a strong Category 3. These factors combined to increase Ragasa’s damages by 36%, the scientists said.
The scientists found that in a cooler world without climate change, similar wind speeds would be expected about once every 33 years. But today, with 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3°F) of global warming, Ragasa’s intense winds have become 49% more likely and are now expected about once every 17 years. Ragasa’s heavy rains could have been expected in the region about once every 8.8 years in the pre-industrial climate, but today, they are expected every 6.7 years.
Their computer models told them this barely a week after landfall. A very specific number. Yup, a cult.
But, what if this is mostly natural, and the number is true? Well, such is life on Earth.
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After peaking as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds, Super Typhoon Ragasa made landfall in the southern Chinese city of Yangjiang in Guangdong Province on September 24 as a Category 3 storm with winds of 120 mph (195 km/h). Ragasa is being blamed for at least 29 deaths and damages in the hundreds of millions of dollars, according to insurance broker Aon. A study released today as part of a new initiative at Imperial College London called the Climate Damage Tracker, which calculates the human and economic costs of climate change, found that climate change boosted Typhoon Ragasa’s winds by 7% and rainfall by 12% at landfall. This is equivalent to intensifying the storm from a weak to a strong Category 3. These factors combined to increase Ragasa’s damages by 36%, the scientists said.
