It’s all in the future, of course, unless you give up your use of fossil fuels and give your money and freedom to government
NY’s Hurricane Insured Loss Potential Up More Than 60% as Climate Changes
Insurance industry scientists put the spotlight on Northern U.S. cities in a new research paper about hurricane potential under a warmer climate scenario, finding that New York’s insured losses could rise by more than 60 percent.
Sam Phibbs and Ed L. Pope, the authors of “Insured U.S. Hurricane Loss Under a 2°C Warmer Climate,” also found that Rhode Island and Massachusetts may see increases of over 70 percent in average annual insurance hurricane loss under a climate scenario that is 2°C warmer than pre-industrial climate compared to a present-day climate (defined as 1.1°C above pre-industrial). (snip)
“These results suggest building codes applied in Gulf Coast states should be applied at higher latitudes to mitigate current and future impacts of climate change,” wrote the authors, who were both members of MS Amlin’s catastrophe research team. (Editor’s Note: Phipps is now Natural Catastrophe Lead for Hiscox, according to his LinkedIn profile.)
To conduct their analysis, the catastrophe research scientists relied on a third-party climate change dataset provided by Reask—specifically, regional rates of change in landfall rate for different intensities of tropical cyclone for a 2°C climate compared to the present-day climate. They then used the data to adjust MS Amlin’s simulated 100,000 year view of landfall rates for the U.S. (which is based on Moody’s medium-term rates, validated to be an appropriate representation of the present-day climate.)
So, all simulated rather than real world, and all based on “we think”. What about the Long Island Hurricane of 1938, when CO2 was below the safe level of 350ppm?
New York, ranked fourth in terms of absolute insured losses by state under both the present day and warmer climate scenarios, sees a 64 percent jump for a warmer climate.
So, they’re prognosticating a whole lot more hurricane landfalls for NY? OK. Who gets fired when this doesn’t happen?
Mr teach can relax. He won. He’s fighing a battle that he already won! Donald J Trump is large and in charge now, and is dismantling the entire global warming apparatus!! All the warmists can do is whine! Humanity will adapt.
Unfortunately, insurance companies (and insurance regulaors) cannot relax, as they must deal with the disasters. In addition, they also have to be somewhat forward looking in attempting to forecast potential losses. Should governments change the building codes o make new structures more cyclone resistant?
Mr teach asks:
Who gets fired when it DOES happen and we are unprepared?
Mr Teach esposes the position is that because no one can predict the future, why should we make any effort to prepare for anything ? Why should insurance companies, they were funding the study, even care about the risks in the future?
The current rate of temp increase is 300% higher since 1986, than the years since1850. Mr Teach seems oblivious to that fact.
In 2024 Strathmere NJ Beach lost 120 feet of beach. That will have the biggest impact on those military aged Americans who can still appear in public wearing bathing suits
The cost of increased green energy over the last 20 years has been insignificant. Despite fear mongering of “skyrocketing” increases, nationally our electric bill has gone up only 2 % per year.
Electric generation costs are usually pegged at 1/3 the total cost of residential power
Your mileage may vary !!!
This could easily be true. a 60% increase in insurance losses could be accounted for as the cost of Biden-era induced inflation and Democratic policy regulations in NY that arbitrarily increase the cost of rebuilding and repairs after even light storm damage. Nothing to do with climate change, just the normal increased cost of voting Democrat.