Seriously, they cannot do the weather with pure confidence for 10 days out, and they want to know what happens past 2100? Heck, Warmists will not even predict the next year or couple of years
How climate change may shape the world in the centuries to come
As 2100 looms closer, climate projections should look farther into the future, scientists sayIt’s hard to imagine what Earth might look like in 2500. But a collaboration between science and art is offering an unsettling window into how ongoing climate change might transform now-familiar terrain into alien landscapes over the next few centuries.
These visualizations — of U.S. Midwestern farms overtaken by subtropical plants, of a dried-up Amazon rainforest, of extreme heat baking the Indian subcontinent — emphasize why researchers need to push climate projections long past the customary benchmark of 2100, environmental social scientist Christopher Lyon and colleagues contend September 24 in Global Change Biology.
Fifty years have passed since the first climate projections, which set that distant target at 2100, says Lyon, of McGill University in Montreal. But that date isn’t so far off anymore, and the effects of greenhouse gas emissions emitted in the past and present will linger for centuries (SN: 8/9/21).
Most of those prognostications have failed.
To visualize what that future world might look like, the researchers considered three possible climate trajectories — low, moderate and high emissions as used in past reports by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — and projected changes all the way out to 2500 (SN: 1/7/20). The team focused particularly on impacts on civilization: heat stress, failing crops and changes in land use and vegetation (SN: 3/13/17).
For all but the lowest-emission scenario, which is roughly in line with limiting global warming to “well under” 2 degrees Celsius relative to preindustrial times as approved by the 2015 Paris Agreement, the average global temperature continues to increase until 2500, the team found (SN: 12/12/15). For the highest-emissions scenario, temperatures increase by about 2.2 degrees C by 2100 and by about 4.6 degrees C by 2500. That results in “major restructuring of the world’s biomes,” the researchers say: loss of most of the Amazon rainforest, poleward shifts in crops and unlivable temperatures in the tropics.
The team then collaborated with James McKay, an artist and science communicator at the University of Leeds in England, to bring the data to life. Based on the study’s projections, McKay created a series of detailed paintings representing different global landscapes now and in 2500.
Some of these are hilarious, and are more in line with a science fiction movie, usually a bad one, of Future Doom. And, there only seems to be three, one of which looks like
Teach: they cannot do the weather with pure confidence for 10 days out
nuCons just cannot unlearn their disinformation…
Teach: Most of those prognostications have failed
The theory predicts that the global mean surface temperature would have a positive correlation to atmospheric CO2 concentration.
No one has refuted that so far.
If, as the nuCons want, nothing is done to slow or stop CO2 increases one would expect the warming to increase even more rapidly than in the past 50 years. But what, us worry? We’ll be dead. Sucks to be our descendants!
Yes, correlation, but not causation. Still one more step to go..
Some theory, hey?
Bwaha! Lolgf
Really? What kind of correlation? Linear? Exponential? What’s the slope? You betray your misunderstanding with every post.
Actually, the fact that their predictions keep NOT happening is refutation enough.
A concept Rimjob has yet to decipher.
Bwaha! Lolgf
alanstorm: Actually, the fact that their predictions keep NOT happening is refutation enough.
https://climate.nasa.gov/system/internal_resources/details/original/1984_for_alan.jpg
Back in the Air force, I had a buddy in the Met Office. We got to discussing the history of hi field and I mentioned that 200 years ago, mariners, using primitive barometers and themometers, and by observation of winds and clouds, could predict the weather out to about three days.
He countered with how now, using satellites, world-wide networks of sensors, ballon-borne instruments, and computers to process all the data, we could forecast out to 72 hours.
We already know that, in the 2300s, the earth will be a paradise, with unlimited energy from non-polluting sources, poverty eliminated, aliens living among us in peace and harmony, and earth the center of a United Federation of Planets. There’s nothing about which to worry.
In the 24th century, we’ll be far more concerned with when Betelgeuse is going to go supernova.
Centuries? Really?
They can’t even make SHORT-term predictions accurately.