This is the time when we will start being inundated with polls, and something to very much consider is that national head to head polls are not a true metric of who will win the general election. It is the State polls where the rubber meets the road. Again, it’s that pesky Electoral College thing. That said, there are a few concerning things for Trump and his supporters, and even for those who are not Trump supporters, but would prefer that Hillary and the Democrats lose
(CNN) Democrat Hillary Clinton tops Republican Donald Trump by a 47% to 42% margin in the race for the presidency, according to a CNN/ORC Poll released Tuesday, and just 22% of registered voters say their minds could change between now and November.
Clinton continues to lead Trump when Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party and Jill Stein of the Green Party are included in the list of options. Nationwide in that match-up, Clinton holds 42%, Trump 38%, Johnson 9% and Stein 7%.
As CNN notes, neither Johnson nor Stein (who?) will qualify for every ballot, but could play a big part in swing states. That could mean Bad Things for Trump.
One other thing to consider about this poll is it that it consists of registered voters, not likely voters.
More Clinton backers say they have made up their minds (37% of all registered voters are solid Clinton voters) than Trump voters (33% of voters are firmly Trump). Among those voters who say they are not settled on a candidate in the two-way race, more than one-third choose Johnson (23%) or Stein (12%) when asked the four-way match up.
Clinton voters care not a whit that she is a horrible person who left four Americans to die in Benghazi and then lied about it to the American people and the families of those killed. Nor do they care that she is under criminal investigation by the FBI for violation of multiple federal laws, including the Espionage Act.
Here’s where it gets really interesting, though
Clinton holds an edge over Trump on handling several issues, including foreign policy, immigration, trade with other countries, nominating justices to the Supreme Court, and issues relating to the rights of women and of gays and lesbians. She’s also seen as better able to handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief and to exercise good judgment in a crisis.
Yeah, that’s right, immigration. Trump has made immigration a hallmark of his campaign, it’s what excited people to become Trumpers…well, building a wall, anyhow…and she beats him 50-45%. She slaughters him on foreign policy 57-36%. And 50-45% on foreign trade.
That said, Trump does beat Hillary on terrorism, the economy, and gun rights. He also beats her on being a strong and decisive leader 47-43%/ Also, “honest and trustworthy” is a 45-37% winner.
But, temperament to be POTUS? Handle the responsibility? Shares your values? Exercises good judgment in a crisis? All Hillary wins. These are not good indicators for a November win.
Even with Trump’s edge on those key issues a majority say they ultimately expect Clinton to prevail in November: 55% say they think she will win the presidency, 38% think Trump will.
Things can change over time, for good or bad. The poll does highlight that of the Republicans polled 51% want Trump as their candidate, 48% want someone else.
Overall, 66% think Hillary did something wrong with her email.
The sampling is interesting, though. 30% Democrat, 23% Republican, and 47% who say they are Independents. And the sampling error is a whopping +/- 8.5 (or less).
This looks like a poll that tries to persuade rather than reflect. Not very truthful, but not unexpected for the liberal cnn (clinton news network)
These poll numbers are also spot on with Rasmussen and Fox polls
Tea party guy, no doubt did not believe the polls in the last 2 elections that showed an Obama electoral landslide
Teach “she” is not under criminal investigation by the FBI
If she were she would be first named as “a person of interest” in the investigation
In fact the FBI has yet to even question her
As soon as the very limited information about Benghazi!!! Arrived Ovama told the military to do whatever they could
Unfortunately reality is not like a Tom Clancy novel and they were unable to do anything within that 12 hour window
A 5% victory margin would probably result in the GOP losing the Senate 8% probably the House
And the next Pitus will probably place 3 into the SCOTUS
The SCOTUS also just refused to overturn 2 states ban on assault type weapons
What do you think would/will happen if the SCOTUS goes 6-3 liberal ?
teach although much less polling has been done at the state level, Trump fairs poorly in the battleground states also
Polling is useful BUT I prefer to look at sites like Predictwise that combine polls, betting, and Electtonic markets such as the Iowa(University) Electronic markets
Bookies are giving Trump 5-1 odds in the hopes that people will risk money on him, the odds are trending up
Down 5?
Oooohhh, I thought it was double digits. You NeverTrump guys kept hitting that all last week. Pretty good for June.
But you take away the skew for Hillary and Trump is up 3.
PS You want swing states Q-Pac has him even in OH and PA. Breitbart’s Mike Flynn (Cruzzer) says PPP
has good news in VA and FL.
The more people see of Hillary, the less they like her.
Sorry.
I think I’ll believe a judge ruling on the case instead of john.
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You have to realize that polls by CNN and other Lefty echo chambers are composed for one purpose only: to disillusion potential Trump voters that Hillary is in the bag and there is no season to even vote.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/06/21/hacked-dnc-file-shows-fears-hidden-clinton-foundation-donations-former-russian-uranium-exec/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+breitbart+%28Breitbart+News%29
The reason why I continue to speak of Manchurian candidates for the Democratic party. They are quite literally operatives of foreign countries for MONEY….They prostitute themselves for the Socialist/communist agenda and the press which by the way in a poll conducted last year found only 7 percent of the PRESS were registered Republicans……..
The press……goes right ahead along with this Communist agenda because they have all been trained by communist professors to toe the party mantra for the good of the STATE.
Good night America. Your party is certainly over…..the only real question is I dont think the Communists in the left figured on the Muslim equation.
So will we be communists or will we be on carpets bowing to Allah?
Thats the question that even the Democrats havent figured out yet…..all they know is…….
THE ENEMY OF MY ENEMY IS MY FRIEND……
So anyone or anything the GOP opposes IS THEIR FRIEND.