Not to be the enthusiasm vampire (a saying we picked up in a sales management seminar-pretty much the only thing*), but, McCain may be leading in the Gallup/UselessA Today poll 54-44, and in other polls, but, as we go down the final stretch, remember that the polls are national polls, and have little bearing on the actual election results. What it comes down to is the electoral votes, as you all know, and I bet many of the Direct Democracy libs are abandoning their cherished DD in favor of the current models, based on State polling data going back anywhere from September 2 to late July. (all data via Electoral Vote)
Right now, Barry leads 301-224, with 13 electoral votes for Virginia up for grabs with a dead heat. Right now, McCain is losing in several States that Bush won (Bush-Kerry in parentheses)
- Nevada B47-M45 (B51-K48)
- New Mexico is a butt woopin’ at the moment B50-M41 (B50-K49) New Mexico has tended to go Dem, BTW
- Colorado B45-M43 (B52-K47)
- North Dakota B43-M40 (B63-K36, so, lots of work to do in ND)
- Indiana B55-M40. Real bad there (B50-K49)
- Ohio B47-M45 (B51-K49)
There are also a few states, such as Montana, South Dakota, North Carolina, and Indiana where it is a bit close for comfort in what should be easy states for McCain. And, with Virginia, where it is tied, and Republicans have killed Dems in 3 of the last 4 elections.
It is also a little close in Florida, M46-B45.
Interestingly, McCain is only 5 out in Pa, and 8 out in New York. The GOP has been crushed in NY in the last 4 elections. 9 out in NJ. 7 in Oregon. 5 in Wisconsin and Michigan, but, doubt that will change anywhere to a win. NJ and NY, doubtful as well.
Unfortunately, the last data for Delaware was in February. Alaska is, as usual, solidly GOP. Go figure.
McCain needs to pick back up all those states Bush won, or substitute Pa or Oregon. And he needs Florida.
There is still some good time, and, we need to see what the Palin effect brings on, especially with some of the states that haven’t had polls since Palin made her speech, and over the past few weeks.
Another big factor will be the youth vote, which often fails to show up. Then we have the debates. Time will tell.
And yet another factor will be if Barry realizes that he is running against John McCain, not Sarah Palin.
Of course, if McCain loses, Republicans will be disappointed, but, will go on with their lives. If Obama lose, if you thought you saw bat-sh*t crazy over the past 4 years, you ain’t seen nothing yet!
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Hi
I found a widget that uses the data from http://www.electoral-vote.com, but presents it “interactively”!
It gives a great overview and it is updated as the polls come in!
I think you might like it!
http://www.youcalc.com/apps/1218019592041
… and its easy to put on your blog!
Make a difference, keep on voting!
Being from WI, I can tell you that the last two elections were “stolen” by the Dems. In both the margin of victory in the state was about 6000 votes (and yet, no recounts), and there were several reports of voting irregularities in the Milwaukee and Madison Areas (the main metropolitan areas in the state). Now we have a controversy with hundreds of names being added to voter rolls in SE WI that do not jive with DOT/Drivers License records. So rather than toss them out, the state elections board has ruled they will let them stand and sort it out after the election. The problem is that you can’t “un-vote”, so if those names are used and proven to be fraudulent after the fact you can’t go back and prove it. First it was registering the mentally disabled to vote and giving the homeless smokes to vote, now third party groups turning in certified voter registrations that cannot be verified, but are still allowed on the rolls. The Dems are doing their best to steal WI’s electoral votes again.
I should add, that the Republicans think they WILL lose a couple of states that went to Bush the last two elections. To counter it they are pushing hard in a a few states that had traditionally been blue that they think they can steal… Those being the Great Lakes states… Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and interestingly enough, New Jersey. That is the word I hear from my “Republican sources”. If they can get those (4) states, they think they can win the White House. It is essentially going to come down to 8 or 9 states again.
The EC count has yet to be updated. Fear not.
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