UN IPCC 95% Sure That All Warming Is Caused By Humans

Unlike during the 99.9999999% of the history of the planet Earth

(Climate change: forecast for 2100 is floods and heat … and it’s man’s fault )

Climate scientists have concluded that temperatures could jump by up to 9F (5C) and sea levels could rise by up to 2ft 8ins (82cm) by the end of the century, according to a leaked draft of a United Nations report.

Interesting. Does this mean that the 17 year pause in statistically significant warming, which some data shows has actually been flatlined and even going down since 2000, is Mankind’s fault? Knowing Warmists, the answer would be “yes”. No matter what happens with the weather, they’ll jump in their fossil fueled vehicles to head to a rally to Blame Mankind.

I do enjoy their prognostications, though. There’s been an increase of about 1.74F since 1850. During the 20th Century, the IPCC itself states that the increase was only 1.33F (.76C). Yet now they expect up to 9F, after a 17 year pause? Sea level has been completely within the average of the last 7,000 years of 6-8 inches per century. Remember, we get averages by adding various numbers. There have been hot and cool periods flipping back and forth during the Holocene, so we should have seen more sea rise, and accelerated sea rise, during the 20th, and especially the late 20th. We haven’t.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also said there was a 95 per cent likelihood that global warming is caused by human activities. That was the highest assessment so far from the IPCC, which put the figure at 90 per cent in a previous report in 2007, 66 per cent in 2001, and just over 50 per cent in 1995.

Of course they have. And then they’ll jump in potentially hundreds of fossil fueled private jets to fly off to the COP19 in Warsaw this year to complain about Other People using fossil fuels. Anthony Watts is surprised they haven’t gone for “97%”. But, they have to keep the money train going, and need to attempt to keep “climate change” relevant, so they have to Blame Man in ever increasing percentages while ignoring what effects nature has.

It will also say evidence of rising sea levels is “unequivocal”. The report projects seas will rise by between 1ft and 2ft 8ins by the late 21st century. In 2007 the estimated rise was between 7ins and 23ins, but that did not fully account for changes in Antarctica and Greenland.

Antarctica has been cooling, except for one small area. The melt from Greenland has been very much overestimated. Furthermore, a warmer Greenland is nothing that hasn’t happened before, many times, during the Holocene.

The IPCC will try to explain why global temperatures, have risen more slowly since about 1998 even though greenhouse gas concentrations have hit record highs in that time. It could be due to a combination of ash from volcanoes dimming sunlight, a decline in heat from the sun during the solar cycle, and the possibility that the climate may be less sensitive than expected to carbon dioxide build-up.

Got that? When it’s not warming, they’ll blame it on nature. When it’s warming, it’s all Mankind. Expect, though, for the Warmists at the UN to find more and more, as well as creative, because they are fiction writers, ya know, ways to Blame Mankind. We should probably see more of the “the heat is doing a Where’s Waldo? in the deep oceans” meme.

And it will be based on computer models, which have failed spectacularly, and can’t even predict past warming, rather than empirical real world data.

Anyone want to guess what the Gore Effect will be on the day that they release the report?

Crossed at Right Wing News and Stop The ACLU.

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3 Comments

Comment by Dan Pangburn
2013-08-17 16:42:49

A licensed mechanical engineer (retired) who has been researching this issue (unfunded) for 6 years, and in the process discovered what actually caused global warming and why it has stopped, has four papers on the web that you may find of interest. They provide some eye-opening insight on the cause of change to average global temperature and why it has stopped warming. The papers are straight-forward calculations (not just theory) using readily available data up to May, 2013.

The first one is ‘Global warming made simple’ at http://lowaltitudeclouds.blogspot.com It shows, with simple thermal radiation calculations, how a tiny change in the amount of low-altitude clouds could account for half of the average global temperature change in the 20th century, and what could have caused that tiny cloud change. (The other half of the temperature change is from net average natural ocean oscillation which is dominated by the PDO)

The second paper is ‘Natural Climate change has been hiding in plain sight’ at http://climatechange90.blogspot.com/2013/05/natural-climate-change-has-been.html . This paper presents a simple equation that, using a single external forcing, calculates average global temperatures since they have been accurately measured world wide (about 1895) with an accuracy of 90%, irrespective of whether the influence of CO2 is included or not. The equation uses a proxy which is the time-integral of sunspot numbers (the external forcing). A graph is included which shows the calculated trajectory overlaid on measurements.

Change to the level of atmospheric CO2 has had no significant effect on average global temperature.

The time-integral of sunspot numbers since 1610 which is shown at http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/01/blog-post_23.html corroborates the significance of this factor.

A third paper, ‘The End of Global Warming’ at http://endofgw.blogspot.com/ expands recent (since 1996) measurements and includes a graph showing the growing separation between the rising CO2 and not-rising average global temperature.

The fourth paper http://consensusmistakes.blogspot.com/ exposes some of the mistakes that have been made by the ‘Consensus’ and the IPCC

 
Comment by Gail Combs
2013-08-17 19:11:00

Just to make thing interesting this seasons Arctic summer has been cold and short and looks like it is over several weeks early: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=7265

Also they found Undersea volcanoes erupting in the Arctic.
2008 “…Arctic ice melt may be due to undersea volcanoes…

The Arctic ice that is supposedly melting, stranding those cuddly looking polar bears, just might be affected by a wave of volcanic eruptions on the ocean floor under the Arctic ice cap. AFP reports on the recently-documented volcanoes, but oddly makes no mention of the possible effect on apocalyptic predictions of global warming.

Recent massive volcanoes have risen from the ocean floor deep under the Arctic ice cap, spewing plumes of fragmented magma into the sea, scientists who filmed the aftermath reported Wednesday.

The eruptions – as big as the one that buried Pompei – took place in 1999 along the Gakkel Ridge, an underwater mountain chain snaking 1,800 kilometres (1,100 miles) from the northern tip of Greenland to Siberia….”
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=7265

News Release Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution June 26, 2008
“Geologists Discover Signs of Volcanoes Blowing their Tops in the Deep Ocean

Evidence of Violent Eruptions on Gakkel Ridge in the Arctic Defies Assumptions about Seafloor Pressure and Volcanism…”

 
Comment by Gail Combs
2013-08-17 19:22:38

If you really want to get spooked think about this.

The Decrease in ice in the Arctic coupled with the Increase in ice in the Antarctic is called the bipolar seesaw. A new paper came out last fall saying

“…thus, the first major reactivation of the bipolar seesaw would probably constitute an indication that the transition to a glacial state had already taken place….”

“…Thus, glacial inception occurred ~3 kyr before the onset of significant bipolar-seesaw variability….”

“…Given the large decrease in summer insolation over the Last Interglacial as a result of the strong eccentricity-precession forcing, we suggest that the value of 3 kyr may be treated as a minimum. We thus estimate interglacial duration as the interval between the terminal occurrence of bipolar-seesaw variability and 3 kyr before its first major reactivation…”

“…Comparison [of the Holocene] with MIS 19c, a close astronomical analogue characterized by an equally weak summer insolation minimum (474Wm−2) and a smaller overall decrease from maximum summer solstice insolation values, suggests that glacial inception is possible despite the subdued insolation forcing, if CO2 concentrations were 240±5 ppmv (Tzedakis et al., 2012)…”

A high-lighted version of the paper sent to Anthony Watts:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/cp-8-1473-2012-hlt.pdf

The last part is also stated in an earlier paper:
“….Because the intensities of the 397 ka BP and present insolation minima are very similar, we conclude that under natural boundary conditions the present insolation minimum holds the potential to terminate the Holocene interglacial. Our findings support the Ruddiman hypothesis [Ruddiman, W., 2003. The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era began thousands of years ago. Climate Change 61, 261–293], which proposes that early anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission prevented the inception of a glacial that would otherwise already have started….”
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379107002715

 

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