Back in March I was wondering whether or not to vote for Amendment 1, because it stops all civil unions. I did the early voting thing on Thursday, and, after much soul searching, voted in favor of Amendment 1. Nate Silver thinks, once you get past all the leftist hand-wringing and obfuscation, that it will pass.
On Tuesday, North Carolina will vote on a state constitutional amendment that declares, “Marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized,” thereby banning recognition of same-sex marriage, civil unions and domestic partnerships of any kind.
Both recent polls of the state and an analysis of past ballot initiatives in other states suggest that the measure, Amendment 1, is likely to pass, although there is ambiguity over the outcome because of voter confusion about what the amendment seeks to achieve. (snip)
The most recent poll was conducted by Civitas Institute, a conservative think tank whose poll results have generally shown little partisan bias in the past. That survey polled Democratic and Republican primary voters separately, but projected that the measure would win by 16 percentage points when it combined the results.
I’m still not particularly happy with the civil unions ban, but, it is what it is.
A significant number of North Carolinians have already cast votes in the primaries through early balloting. According to the Civitas Institute, which tracks these statistics, about 160,000 Democratic ballots and 130,000 Republican ballots have been requested so far. One hopeful sign for opponents of the amendment is that an especially large number of ballots have been cast in Durham County and Wake County, which are home to colleges like Duke University and are socially liberal.
That may be so, but many are also very religious. I spent quite a bit of time talking about it with a Black pastor who lives in Durham, and was the one who convinced me through both religious and non-religious points in the validity of the Amendment. Many others feel the same, because, yes, this is very much a religious issue. No matter how many personal slurs and insults opponents of the Amendment throw, many people have beliefs. We’ll see what happens Tuesday night.
More: Donald Douglas discusses the same article and points out that this could have national implications vis a vis the general election.